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Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

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Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#41

Post by barrkel »

mikert89 wrote: post #10

Outsourcing has never worked for core products and innovation. Anyone claiming all these jobs will go over seas has never tried to outsource something complex. Zero large cap businesses have succeeded at this. The outsourcing comes in long after the innovation has stalled and the product is KTLO

You don't outsource; you set up an office instead.

The problem with outsourcing is similar to the problem with contracting. You have limited ability to direct the work, the terms need to be specified up front, the contractors can substitute in the B team once they've got the project under way, etc.

With an office and local hiring, you have full control. You can second employees on-site for some time to get the culture and work practices in shape. The bigger issue becomes stuff like timezones. So you try and carve off whole responsibilities, so the team is mostly working locally.

Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#42

Post by barrkel »

jgalt212 wrote: post #22

The NBER can cherry pick the data all they want, and change the argument from wages to jobs, but the H-1B system (as it has existed for the last 20+ years) is bad for American workers.

Would a Silicon Valley 30-50% smaller be better for American workers?

That's a rough estimate for how many engineers etc. that have or had a H-1B at some point.

If you think of value creation as requiring fuel, humans are an input to that. The size of the industry and the liquidity of the labor market all contribute to enabling Americans in the Bay Area to acquire plenty of wealth.

Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#43

Post by jgalt212 »

barrkel wrote: post #42
jgalt212 wrote: post #22

The NBER can cherry pick the data all they want, and change the argument from wages to jobs, but the H-1B system (as it has existed for the last 20+ years) is bad for American workers.

Would a Silicon Valley 30-50% smaller be better for American workers? That's a rough estimate for how many engineers etc. that have or had a H-1B at some point. If you think of value creation as requiring fuel, humans are an input to that. The size of the industry and the liquidity of the labor market all contribute to enabling Americans in the Bay Area to acquire plenty of wealth.

> requiring fuel

I think you mean cheap fuel, and the H1-B program creates artificially cheap fuel to the detriment of American citizens whose parents paid years of taxes, fought in foreign wars, etc. Our children are owed a fair deal. The H1-B program is a moral wrong.

Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#44

Post by Herring »

barrkel wrote: post #40
zaptheimpaler wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I don’t really know what the studies show or how accurately they represent the effect of restricting H-1B today. I do believe there is a chance it could help the native population, partly because a lot more Americans studied CS in the last few years after it became a prestigious and high-paying career compared to its usual immigrant dominated status. I'm tired of the constant slurs and hatred. It’s better for immigra…

That's a lot of evidence free speculation. "Many people believe", and you doubt any studies that show the opposite.

Meanwhile China is listening to their experts

https://www.china-briefing.com/news/chinas-entry-exit-k-visa...

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jC8f1qs3TGs

That's life, I guess. There's an ancient Chinese saying: Wealth does not last beyond three generations. Too much easy money probably makes you stupid, like trust fund babies.

Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#45

Post by dangus »

mieses wrote: post #37
dangus wrote: post #17

Of course it doesn’t. Don’t forget that immigrants are participants in the economy. If they are removed there are fewer customers. Without immigrants, the US is losing population. That is fact.

The argument makes sense if you value numeric population over culture.

Which culture are we valuing here? European?

Or do you mean the culture of Indigenous Americans?

Or do you mean the culture of Africans who were brought to the USA against their will as a part of the slave trade?

98.9% of Americans are immigrants or descendants of immigrants.

Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#47

Post by insane_dreamer »

Herring wrote: post #35
zaptheimpaler wrote: post #9

There is some evidence of fraud, substitution of native workers with H-1Bs, power imbalances and more playing a part in the labor market. A lot of Americans, including in tech seem to be clamoring for less H-1Bs and immigrants, let them have it and see how it goes. Maybe it really will be better. It should be a win-win where India gets to keep more of its best talent and the US native population has less competition.

Where are you getting "less competition"? The article clearly says that's not what happens. Study after study has shown that immigration generally has a net positive effect on the US job market. What'll probably happen is a spiral like in the US South and rural/republican areas. The economy keeps getting worse and people keep getting more hateful and anti-intellectual and self-destructive.

H1B is not immigration. It’s a temporary work permit based that can be revoked at any time by your employer firing you.

Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#48

Post by dragonwriter »

insane_dreamer wrote: post #47
Herring wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Where are you getting "less competition"? The article clearly says that's not what happens. Study after study has shown that immigration generally has a net positive effect on the US job market. What'll probably happen is a spiral like in the US South and rural/republican areas. The economy keeps getting worse and people keep getting more hateful and anti-intellectual and self-destructive.

H1B is not immigration. It’s a temporary work permit based that can be revoked at any time by your employer firing you.

H-1b is not an immigrant visa but, because it is dual intent, it is frequently used as a part of the path to immigration but would-be immigrants, and the fact that H-1b immigrants disproportionately come from places where immigrant work- and family-based visas have long wait lists because of per-country caps has a positive feedback relationship with this, both contributing to it and being reinforced by it.

Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#49

Post by itsdrewmiller »

This sounds like a great natural experiment (the quota dropped by 3x!) until you realize that they weren't even coming close to hitting the old quota, and the number of approved h1bs actually rose in the two years after the quota was dropped.

https://www.uscis.gov/sites/default/files/document/data/h1b0...

Re: Fewer H-1B visas did not mean more employment for natives (2017)

#50

Post by cranberryturkey »

mieses wrote: post #38
Herring wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It almost certainly does mean less. Numerous studies have shown that immigration generally has a net positive effect on the US job market. It’s the broad consensus among economists. Racism is crazy. Everyone can look at the US south and plainly see the results of failed policies .. everyone except the Southerners.

Rates of immigration in US history were small compared to current rates. Their conclusions are based on small numbers. Small numbers over time can "integrate" into a culture. Large numbers over time may also be called an invasion. A lot of the economic papers lead to the conclusion that infinite Somalis will have net positive effects. We need better research.

I know in silicon valley 66% of work force is Indian.
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