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The LLM Lobotomy?

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41–50 of 62 posts

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#41
post #30

Since when LLM become deterministic?

LLM are just software + data and can be made deterministic, in the same way a pseudo random number generator can be made deterministic by using the same seed. For an LLM, you typically set temperature to 0, or set the random seed to the same value, run it on the same hardware (or emulation) or otherwise ensure the (floating point) calculations get the exact same results. I think that's it. In reality, yes it's not that easy, but it's possible.

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#42
I've noticed this with Claude Code recently. A few weeks ago, Claude was "amazing" in that I could feed it some context and a specification, and it could generate mostly correct code and refine it in a few prompts.

Now, I can try the same things, and Claude gets it terribly wrong and works itself into problems it can't find its way out of.

The cynical side of me thinks this is being done on purpose, not to save Anthropic money, but to make more money by burning tokens.

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#43
post #10

I have a theory: all these people reporting degrading model quality over time aren't actually seeing model quality deteriorate. What they are actually doing is discovering that these models aren't as powerful as they initially thought (ie. expanding their sample size for judging how good the model is). The probabilistic nature of LLM produces a lot of confused thinking about how good a model is, just because a model…

I see your point but no, it's getting objectively worse. I have a similar experience of casually using chatgpt for various use cases, when 5 dropped i noticed it was very fast but oddly got some details off. As time moved on it became both slower and the output deteriorated.

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#44
post #8

Is setting temperature to 0 even a valid way to measure LLM performance over time, all else equal?

I'd have assumed a fixed seed was used, but he doesn't mention that. Weird. Maybe he meant that?

Pure sci-Fi idea: what if actually nothing was changed, but RNGs were becoming less random as we extract more randomness out of the universe?

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#45
post #28
post #2

This was the perfect opportunity to share the evidence. I think undisclosed quantization is definitely a thing. We need benchmarks to be periodically re-evaluated to ward against this. Providers should keep timestamped models fixed, and assign modified versions a new timestamp, and price, if they want. The model with the "latest" tag could change over time, like a Docker image. Then we can make an informed decision o…

I guarantee you the weights are already versioned like you're describing. Each training run results in a static bundle of outputs and these are very much pinned (OpenAI has confirmed multiple times that they don't change the model weights once they issue a public release). > Not quantized. Weights are the same. If we did change the model, we’d release it as a new model with a new name in the API.” - [Ted Sanders]( ht…

That's a great point. However, I think we can treat the serving pipeline as part and parcel of the model, for practical purposes. So it is dishonest of companies to say they haven't changed the model while undertaking such cost optimizations that impair the models' effective intelligence.

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#46

Am I the only person who can sense the exact moment an LLM-written response kicked in? :) "sharing some of the test results/numbers you have would truly help cement this case!" - c'mon :)

I actually 100% wrote that comment myself haha!! See https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45316437

I think it would have sounded more reasonable in French, which is my actual native tongue. (i.e. I subconsciously translate from French when I'm writing in English)

((this comment was also written without AI!!)) :-)

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#47
post #10

I have a theory: all these people reporting degrading model quality over time aren't actually seeing model quality deteriorate. What they are actually doing is discovering that these models aren't as powerful as they initially thought (ie. expanding their sample size for judging how good the model is). The probabilistic nature of LLM produces a lot of confused thinking about how good a model is, just because a model…

They test specific prompts with temperature 0. It is of course possible that all their tests prompts were lucky, but still then, shouldn't you see an immediate drop followed by a flat or increasing line? Also, from what I understand from the article, it's not a difficult task but an easily machine checkable one, i.e. whether the output conforms to a specific format.

If it was random luck, wouldn't you expect about half the answers to be better? Assuming the OP isn't lying I don't think there's much room for luck when you get all the questions wrong on a T/F test.

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#48
post #8

Is setting temperature to 0 even a valid way to measure LLM performance over time, all else equal?

I don't think it's a valid measure across models but, as in the OP, it's a great measure for when they mess with "the same model" behind the scenes.

That being said we also do keep a test suite to check that model updates don't result in worse results for our users and it worked well enough. We had to skip a few versions of Sonnet because it stopped being able to complete tasks (on the same data) it could previously. I don't blame Anthropic, I would be crazy to assume that new models are a strict improvement across all tasks and domains.

I do just wish they would stop depreciating old models, once you have something working to your satisfaction it would be nice to freeze it. Ah well, only for local models.

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#49
This brings up a point many will not be aware of. If you know the random seed and the prompt, and the hash of the model's binary file; the output is completely deterministic. You can use this information to check whether they are in fact swapping your requests out to cheaper models than what you're paying for. This level of auditability is a strong argument for using open-source, commodified models, because you can easily check if the vendor is ripping you off.

Re: The LLM Lobotomy?

#50
Could it be a result of a caching of some sort? I suppose in case of LLM they can't make a direct cache but they could group prompts using embeddings and produce some most common result maybe? (this is just a theory)
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