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"Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

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Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#41

Post by vijayr »

gojomo wrote: post #20
tptacek wrote: post #4

This is a great post. Because I'm a nerd, I'm compelled to make an orthogonal point: Life expectancy is not entirely medical and is not a particularly good way to compare countries. Consider that among the top causes of death in the US are "accidents" (predominantly motor vehicles) and suicide, both of which are anomalously high in the US. Consider also that if you go to the top US cause of death (heart disease, clea…

You may mean homicide rather than suicide: the US doesn't seem especially high in this ranking of suicide deaths -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_ra... -- below many other rich or large countries, and not far from culturally/developmentally similar countries (like Canada/NZ/UK). The US does stick out among its usual developmental peers on the homicide rates -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/…

That wikipedia link is interesting - almost in every single country, male suicides are much higher than female suicides, in some cases 4 to 5 times more.

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#42

Post by tptacek »

barrkel wrote: post #39
tptacek wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The United States ranks #56 (higher numbers are better), ahead of basically the entire EU, on colorectal cancer mortality. The United States ranks #41, ahead of much of the EU but behind Germany and France, on ovarian cancer. The United States ranks #61, again ahead of almost all of the EU, on breast cancer. Here I might point out that to come in much higher than the US in these numbers, ie, to be Gabon, you have to…

But even by what you write, it's not convincing, though, is it? Behind some major countries on a number of common cancers, but in the lead on others. I mean, it's clear that the US is not lagging. But it's not a convincing lead either. And you need to look at the variances. From looking at the per 100K deaths, many of the US leads are in the region of 10%, but the variances between different European countries is muc…

Correlate the cancers in which the US is ahead of 2 out of 3 of France, Germany, and the UK, to the cancers that kill the most people (incidence and mortality). Pull out lung cancer, for which there is a clear causal explanation.

Now compare that result to life expectancy rankings. That's the point I'm making.

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#43

Post by Retric »

tptacek wrote: post #32
Retric wrote: post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Your statistics are simply wrong. Which is why they numbers don't seem to add up correctly. US has a mixed heath-care system with some people reviving enough treatment that it actually lowers there chances of survival and others getting little to no treatment. PS: It's hard to get good data. Japan has twice the US suicide rate and a longer life expectancy. However, some of their numbers are off due to people not repo…

Is there data to back up your argument? What you're saying seems to amount to this: If you're wealthy, the US health care system is so good that not only does it outdo Europe's system at handling heart disease and cancer, but it does so much better than Europe's that the effect is evident from mortality statistics even though 75MM people in the US make less than $22,000/yr. At the same time, you're saying that regard…

Your assuming at the lower end of the scale are accurately diagnosed.

However, for a simple idea of how bad the US healthcare system really is look at this: http://www.cddep.org/tools/methicillin_resistant_staphylococ...

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#44

Post by tptacek »

Retric wrote: post #43
tptacek wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is there data to back up your argument? What you're saying seems to amount to this: If you're wealthy, the US health care system is so good that not only does it outdo Europe's system at handling heart disease and cancer, but it does so much better than Europe's that the effect is evident from mortality statistics even though 75MM people in the US make less than $22,000/yr. At the same time, you're saying that regard…

Your assuming at the lower end of the scale are accurately diagnosed. However, for a simple idea of how bad the US healthcare system really is look at this: http://www.cddep.org/tools/methicillin_resistant_staphylococ...

In 2007 there were 8,324 deaths linked to MRSA in the UK. In 2005, there were between 4,429-8,850 (6,639 w/ 95% CI) deaths linked to MRSA in the US. There are more than 5 times as many people in the United States than in the UK.

I obviously do not have the specific stats at my fingertips to refute the anecdote you've supplied, but if there were a way for us to bet on which of our arguments the correct statistic is going to support, I'd bet on my argument.

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#45

Post by tptacek »

onetimeuse001 wrote: post #37
tptacek wrote: post #4

This is a great post. Because I'm a nerd, I'm compelled to make an orthogonal point: Life expectancy is not entirely medical and is not a particularly good way to compare countries. Consider that among the top causes of death in the US are "accidents" (predominantly motor vehicles) and suicide, both of which are anomalously high in the US. Consider also that if you go to the top US cause of death (heart disease, clea…

Life expectancy is not entirely medical and is not a particularly good way to compare countries. Consider that among the top causes of death in the US are "accidents" (predominantly motor vehicles) and suicide, both of which are anomalously high in the US. Maybe I am getting it wrong but does it matter how you die? Generally speaking (averaged out,) if you live in US and do what the average person does, you will get…

Yes, it matters a lot how you die. For instance, there are 2,900 hippopotamus-related fatalities worldwide every year. Zero of those occur in the US. If you compare the US to Subsaharan Africa by hippo fatality, all you learn is that Subsaharan Africa has hippos.

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#46

Post by grecy »

tptacek wrote: post #40
grecy wrote: post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, confused my acronyms. OECD

[WARNING: Egregiously incorrect comment follows] In other words, you think car quality in the US is lower than that of countries like Tajikistan, Swaziland, Kazakhstan, and Ecuador. When you say "OECD", you might as well say "the entire world". I officially doubt your statistics.

No.

http://www.oecd.org/general/listofoecdmembercountries-ratifi...

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#47

Post by onetimeuse001 »

tptacek wrote: post #45
onetimeuse001 wrote: post #37

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Life expectancy is not entirely medical and is not a particularly good way to compare countries. Consider that among the top causes of death in the US are "accidents" (predominantly motor vehicles) and suicide, both of which are anomalously high in the US. Maybe I am getting it wrong but does it matter how you die? Generally speaking (averaged out,) if you live in US and do what the average person does, you will get…

Yes, it matters a lot how you die. For instance, there are 2,900 hippopotamus-related fatalities worldwide every year. Zero of those occur in the US. If you compare the US to Subsaharan Africa by hippo fatality, all you learn is that Subsaharan Africa has hippos.

But they have less cars, to take an example. Dead is dead was my point and in whatever country you live, you will deal with the cars, lions, tundra or whatever.

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#48

Post by tptacek »

grecy wrote: post #46
tptacek wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[WARNING: Egregiously incorrect comment follows] In other words, you think car quality in the US is lower than that of countries like Tajikistan, Swaziland, Kazakhstan, and Ecuador. When you say "OECD", you might as well say "the entire world". I officially doubt your statistics.

No. http://www.oecd.org/general/listofoecdmembercountries-ratifi...

You win this time, guy who can read a web page properly! :)

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#49

Post by tptacek »

onetimeuse001 wrote: post #47
tptacek wrote: post #45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, it matters a lot how you die. For instance, there are 2,900 hippopotamus-related fatalities worldwide every year. Zero of those occur in the US. If you compare the US to Subsaharan Africa by hippo fatality, all you learn is that Subsaharan Africa has hippos.

But they have less cars, to take an example. Dead is dead was my point and in whatever country you live, you will deal with the cars, lions, tundra or whatever.

Sure, and it does seem to be true: life expectancy in part tells you "this country has more cars than hippos". The car/hippo ratio is a very different concept than "quality and outcome of health care systems".

Re: "Life Expectancy" Doesn't Measure How Long You're Expected To Live

#50

Post by brd »

vijayr wrote: post #41
gojomo wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You may mean homicide rather than suicide: the US doesn't seem especially high in this ranking of suicide deaths -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_countries_by_suicide_ra... -- below many other rich or large countries, and not far from culturally/developmentally similar countries (like Canada/NZ/UK). The US does stick out among its usual developmental peers on the homicide rates -- http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/…

That wikipedia link is interesting - almost in every single country, male suicides are much higher than female suicides, in some cases 4 to 5 times more.

Actually, female attempt rates are higher than male. There are a variety of factors that come into play but essentially females choose methods of suicide that are less effective so male rates ultimately end up higher.
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