Job prospects down, immigration up. Someone make it make sense.
> immigration up
"In January 2025, 53.3 million immigrants lived in the United States – the largest number ever recorded. In the ensuing months, however, more immigrants left the country or were deported than arrived. By June, the country’s foreign-born population had shrunk by more than a million people, marking its first decline since the 1960s" [1].
Maybe, just maybe, the reason is that the economy is moving towards the dumps and nobody is hiring or firing, because they know the future is gloomy. But it makes it much nicer to say its AI that's stealing jobs to create even more hype.
Perhaps you have it backwards, and the future is gloomy because AI is wrecking young american's job prospects. Is it possible to stay better than AI? Maybe for some people. Not for the average person. The results of that are one of the largest contributors to the gloomy future (among other things).
The future is gloomy because the American economy has largely been in a state of "jobless recovery" since thr great recession. Stock prices are up thanks to corporate tax cuts, ZIRP, AI hype etc, but discretionary income is either stagnant in many sectors or are being chipped away from every angle: rent, healthcare, transport, childcare or leisure.
This will be very interesting. So far in the Industrial Revolution, automating away jobs has been how we've getting richer and richer for centuries. If AI automates away half of all jobs, and this holds we will - after an adjustment period - double GDP and collectively be twice as wealthy! If that actually happens, it solves many currently "unsolvable" societal problems. I'm pretty sure that it does, but the adjustme…
I don’t know if it’s that simple. The 1800s to mid 1900s were rife with labor disputes and real blood was spilled before any gains were distributed down the chain, and even then labor gains only lasted a couple decades
I suspect for the already wealthy this will happen, but I think the average person will largely get handed an empty basket of promises and not much else
> companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP This sounds more like overproduction of entry-level computer scientists than anything AI or hiring managers are up to.
I suspect it is also universities realizing that (pure) computer science has low demand so they shifted their program to either focus it on more industry-geared education, or dumb-dumbed the grade-inflation (data backs this up) enough the masses had the confidence to do it.
> dumb-dumbed the grade-inflation (data backs this up)
One crazy stat -- In 2024, 21% of all bachelor's degrees awarded were Computer Science from University of Maryland College Park. It was 3% in 2011. I don't agree with the article that AI is wrecking job prospects. I see it is as companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP. Nonetheless, it's gotta be tough out there for new grads. https://www.usmd.edu/IRIS…
> companies are just now trending towards running leaner vs hiring every good engineer available during ZIRP This sounds more like overproduction of entry-level computer scientists than anything AI or hiring managers are up to.
Absolutely, and this trend didn't start with the current AI boom. It started getting tough for people around ~2017 (with some exceptions in between). Before that you could likely get a job right out of a boot camp. Supply now has far outweighed demand on the junior level.
This could be the next iteration of stealing talent to prevent others from owning the market. An actually intelligent investor could dominate by bucking the trend and hire lots of smart, eager junior candidates. When other tech companies realize GenAI will never produce what they want, there will be a rush to re-hire developers. Top talent all started as junior talent. Grab that pool so nobody else will have it.
> GenAI will never produce what they want
What's your argument supporting this? Ten years ago GenAI couldn't produce two coherent sentences. We've come a long way, what makes you think it won't go further?
How much of the glut of new compsci/sweng young people is the result of real market demands, vs social media personalities creating the appearance of a demand?
My observation is that, between 2019 and 2023, there were many creators shilling this, and probably quite good livings made off views and clicks. Could social media have amplified this, “fakely”?
1. High interests rate. 2. Too many bootcamps. We can close this topic.
computer job market is a huge misallocation of skills and resources, so no it's not that simple.
Given how much tech debt/backlog there is, there should be enough work for everyone, just paid less.
The fact that it isn't so just shows that there are bottlenecks elsewhere - HR, companies stuck in office only mode (so there's a high floor on salaries).
Currently all I see is a mix of very highly paid do it all types with rather lowly paid outsourced talent but no sensible middle and of course no way to realistically learn on the job - the bar to get in is very high.
I suspect it is also universities realizing that (pure) computer science has low demand so they shifted their program to either focus it on more industry-geared education, or dumb-dumbed the grade-inflation (data backs this up) enough the masses had the confidence to do it.
> dumb-dumbed the grade-inflation (data backs this up) Source for CS graduates?
Here's one survey, but the literature is plastered with it