From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
41–50 of 102 posts
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#42I have an issue with the words "understanding", "reasoning", etc when talking about LLMs. Are they really understanding, or putting out a stream of probabilities?
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#43Earlier quoted context omitted.
This is not a good analogy because reasoning models are not choosing the best from a set of attempts based on knowledge of the correct answer. It really is more like what it sounds like: “did you think about it longer until you ruled out various doubts and became more confident?” Of course nobody knows quite why directing more computation in this way makes them better, and nobody seems to take the reasoning trace too…
Bad news: it doesn't seem to work as well as you might think: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.01191 As one might expect, because the AI isn't actually thinking, it's just spending more tokens on the problem. This sometimes leads to the desired outcome but the phenomenon is very brittle and disappears when the AI is pushed outside the bounds of its training. To quote their discussion, "CoT is not a mechanism for genuine lo…
This is science at its worst, where you start at an inflammatory conclusion and work backwards. There is nothing particularly novel presented here, especially not in the mathematics; obviously performance will degrade on out-of-distribution tasks (and will do so for humans under the same formulation), but the real question is how out-of-distribution a lot of tasks actually are if they can still be solved with CoT. Yes, if you restrict the dataset, then it will perform poorly. But humans already have a pretty large visual dataset to pull from, so what are we comparing to here? How do tiny language models trained on small amounts of data demonstrate fundamental limitations?
I'm eager to see more works showing the limitations of LLM reasoning, both at small and large scale, but this ain't it. Others have already supplied similar critiques, so let's please stop sharing this one around without the grain of salt.
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#44I have an issue with the words "understanding", "reasoning", etc when talking about LLMs. Are they really understanding, or putting out a stream of probabilities?
Do you yourself really understand, or are you just depolarizing neurons that have reached their threshold?
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
The latter. When "understand", "reason", "think", "feel", "believe", and any of a long list of similar words are in any title, it immediately makes me think the author already drank the kool aid.
I agree with “feel” and “believe” but what words would you suggest instead of “understand” and “reason’?
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
Bad news: it doesn't seem to work as well as you might think: https://arxiv.org/pdf/2508.01191 As one might expect, because the AI isn't actually thinking, it's just spending more tokens on the problem. This sometimes leads to the desired outcome but the phenomenon is very brittle and disappears when the AI is pushed outside the bounds of its training. To quote their discussion, "CoT is not a mechanism for genuine lo…
I keep wondering whether people have actually examined how this work draws its conclusions before citing it. This is science at its worst, where you start at an inflammatory conclusion and work backwards. There is nothing particularly novel presented here, especially not in the mathematics; obviously performance will degrade on out-of-distribution tasks (and will do so for humans under the same formulation), but the…
Science starts with a guess and you run experiments to test.
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#47I have an issue with the words "understanding", "reasoning", etc when talking about LLMs. Are they really understanding, or putting out a stream of probabilities?
Does it matter from a practical point of view? It's either true understanding or it's something else that's similar enough to share the same name.
The "lie detector" is used to misguide people, the polygraph is used to measure autonomic arousal.
I think these misnomers can cause real issues like thinking the LLM is "reasoning".
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
I get that. But then if that option doesn't help, what I've seen is that the next followup is inevitably "have you tried doing/prompting x instead of y"
> I get that. But then if that option doesn't help, what I've seen is that the next followup is inevitably "have you tried doing/prompting x instead of y" Maybe I’m misunderstanding, but it sounds like you’re framing a completely normal proces (try, fail, adjust) as if it’s unreasonable? In reality, when something doesn’t work, it would seem to me that the obvious next step is to adapt and try again. This does not se…
1. this is magic and will one-shot your questions 2. but if it goes wrong, keep trying until it works
Plus, knowing it's all probabilistic, how do you know, without knowing ahead of time already, that the result is correct? Is that not the classic halting problem?
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#49Here's my experience: for some coding tasks where GPT 4.1, Claude Sonnet 4, Gemini 2.5 Pro were just spinning for hours and hours and getting nowhere, GPT 5 just did the job without a fuss. So, I switched immediately to GPT 5, and never looked back. Or at least I never looked back until I found out that my company has some Copilot limits for premium models and I blew through the limit. So now I keep my context small,…
Re: From GPT-4 to GPT-5: Measuring progress through MedHELM [pdf]
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
I keep wondering whether people have actually examined how this work draws its conclusions before citing it. This is science at its worst, where you start at an inflammatory conclusion and work backwards. There is nothing particularly novel presented here, especially not in the mathematics; obviously performance will degrade on out-of-distribution tasks (and will do so for humans under the same formulation), but the…
"This is science at its worst, where you start at an inflammatory conclusion and work backwards" Science starts with a guess and you run experiments to test.
I honestly wish this paper actually showed what it claims, since it is a significant open problem to understand CoT reasoning relative to the underlying training set.