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The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

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Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#41

Post by toomuchtodo »

variadix wrote: post #40
toomuchtodo wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I agree with your observations. The future will not be as bright as the past, the population boom was already squeezed for the gains. Immigration at the levels needed to change this are unpalatable to most electorates, and with total fertility rate dropping across the world, it's important to be mindful that net migration to Earth is 0 (slide 39). As the economic future deteriorates due to the ever increasing drag of…

The welfare state has to collapse before people realize children are their retirement plan, and that there’s no guarantee the government will take care of them in old age.

There is no guarantee your children will take care of you. Walk through any nursing or care home and speak with residents, ask the last time a child saw them.

One quarter of adult children estranged from a parent - https://thehill.com/blogs/blog-briefing-room/4104138-one-qua... - July 19th, 2023

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#42

Post by otabdeveloper4 »

TrackerFF wrote: post #38

Ironic as it may sound, coming from a childfree millennial, I'm kind of puzzled how the system will survive. Both my grandparents died in their 90s, and spent over 30 years are retirees - mainly living off their state pension. As people become older, they'll either have to work longer, or the system will come crashing down. Especially with lower fertility rates. My generation should be birthing kids as the previous o…

> can't imagine a population where 1/3 will be retired people.

We're currently trending towards a birth rate of 1 or less. This means 4/5 will be retirees in three generations.

Your 1/3 figure is wildly optimistic. Little chance it will be that good.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#43

Post by rendang »

api wrote: post #13
UncleMeat wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Paul Ehrlich was the most visible figure in the midcentury fear of overpopulation. He claimed that by now we'd have seen starvation so profound around the world (100,000,000s dead of starvation) that large portions of the third world would collapse completely and that the only mechanism to prevent this starvation was extreme population control measures placed by the west on the rest of the world (including things lik…

Unfortunately a lot of people are now saying we need extreme curtailing of rights -- largely womens' rights -- because of underpopulation. The answer to every panic is always curtailing of rights. Scary thing may happen therefore we need big alpha ape to fix it for us by bashing people on head with big rock. Grunt, grunt.

Which people are saying we need to curtail womens' rights because of underpopulation?

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#44

Post by Qem »

jmclnx wrote: post #15

This is all well and good, but population dropping will only impact our civilization a little. I think this is an issue only because the "very rich" may actually see their standard of living fall. For the poor, it will have no real impact. Plus it is probably a good thing population will start dropping. The much larger worry should be Climate Change , a dropping population can only help Climate Change in the long run…

> For the poor, it will have no real impact.

It will likely bring back the problem of old age destitution as rule, not exception. It's a previously common scourge that never went completely away[1][2], but went into the sidelines by early-mid XX century, and is set to coming back with a vengeance, by the time current people in their 20s-30s reach old age. It hits the poor hard.

[1] https://www.marketwatch.com/story/successful-educated-but-no...

[2] https://citizenmatters.in/mumbai-abandoned-destitute-elderly...

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#46

Post by Arainach »

vixen99 wrote: post #17
Arainach wrote: post #7

The complaining about fertility rates, mostly done by the chunk of the population hoarding more and more of the wealth, will continue until people's ability to afford rent and children improves.

'hoarding more and more of the wealth'. Sounds very much like you believe in the pie fallacy. A zero sum game? Maybe that's not what you meant though.

The pie has nothing to do with it.

The tide is rising and most ships are sinking. Productivity in the last 40 years has skyrocketed. The gains have overwhelmingly gone to a tiny minority while everyone else has seen rent, food, education, and more go up dramatically faster than wages. This has accelerated in the last 15 years and has destroyed any faith in the social contract.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#47

Post by lynx97 »

baron816 wrote: post #22

The mid-century Baby Boom occurred after a surge in affordable home keeping technologies (vacuum cleaners, washing machines, refrigerators, etc). I think a rebound in fertility will have to come from technology. Specifically, robots to help with child care and new fertility treatments to allow women to have children later in their lives.

Late child birth is not about fertility but about risks for the child. The only woman I know (yeah, anecdotes) who attempted to delay getting a child until after her 40th birthday got a baby with down syndrome. I know what living with a disability in our world means, from personal experience. And given that experience, I have a hard time giving these women some slack. I think they are risking the well being of their children just for their own selfish reasons. We are humans, and there are limits to what we can do. We need to accept them, or we will make other people suffer.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#48

Post by toomuchtodo »

seydor wrote: post #29
vonneumannstan wrote: post #14

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This totally ignores the fact that the decline in fertility is measurable across the globe in the poorest and wealthiest nations in the world. It's clearly not a simple matter of affordability...

Poor countries reproduce more, it's not same everywhere https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Income_and_fertility

Look at slide 3 again ("TFR around the world").

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#49

Post by lynx97 »

rayiner wrote: post #33

The point on p. 39 about immigration is important for everyone to understand: > Most immigrants worsen the fiscal position of the government. According to an Economist article addressing data collected by Denmark, each non-western immigrants produce a negative financial benefit over their lifetimes, and immigrants from the Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan, are a net cost on the government at every age: https://inq…

Intuitvely, those opposing immigration have always known this. But tell that t someone from the left They will verbally kill you for stating obvious facts.

Re: The demographic future of humanity: facts and consequences [pdf]

#50

Post by Arainach »

rayiner wrote: post #33

The point on p. 39 about immigration is important for everyone to understand: > Most immigrants worsen the fiscal position of the government. According to an Economist article addressing data collected by Denmark, each non-western immigrants produce a negative financial benefit over their lifetimes, and immigrants from the Middle East, North Africa, Pakistan, are a net cost on the government at every age: https://inq…

Over what timespan? This analysis isn't elaborated at all. Does it count the impact of companies being able to pay lower wages and paying more taxes? Does it account for the future generations? Etc.
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