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Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

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Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#41

Post by LightBug1 »

throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

AI Fact Verification and Replication Teams.

One team to re-do the work to double check the right answer. The second team to reconcile the right answer with the AI result.

I'm not even joking ... I've professionally been extremely embarrassed once by an AI result. Now I check it so often that I might as well just do the work I asked it to do.

No doubt, quick questions and rough ideas, LLM is the bomb.

Professionally? Nah. Not yet.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#42

Post by bootsmann »

xg15 wrote: post #16
janitor77swe wrote: post #12

I don't understand such statement. Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? Jobs don't go away, they just transform. And since this AI (whatever that means, nobody really knows) isn't a human-like AGI, it will most certainly not replace humans, but it will automate processes and speed things up. If you're a business that offers 3 services to the public and "AI" could au…

> Automation has already created more job opportunities, why should this be any different? This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics. > why would do that as opposed to keeping your headcount and instead offer 9 services to the public generating more streams of revenue? Because there might not be enough demand for those 9 services.

> This is the "the climate has changed before" argument for economics

It's really not, you cannot cause a recession by increasing productivity, money doesn't disappear.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#43

Post by darth_avocado »

guywithahat wrote: post #24
throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy. Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast…

> it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy.

Still doesn’t explain how new jobs are created. Efficient economy doesn’t mean more jobs. You could displace a thousand workers and create a single new better job, but that means nothing.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#44

Post by tcfhgj »

drdec wrote: post #36

Think about what happened when we got advances in agriculture. We have gone from something like 90% of people employed growing food to something in the single digits (I'm too lazy at the moment to get exact figures, but this is close enough for my point). Did all those advances in agriculture create jobs? I would say yes and no. For the specific industry the advances happened in? No, definitely not. There are way few…

what is this "something else" in this case?

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#45

Post by andoando »

schnable wrote: post #26

> He used his AI startup, Emma.love, to further drive the point home. He indicated that he was able to build the app with the help of two other software developers, a task that would have otherwise required the manpower of "over 350 developers in the past." Looking at the product, the idea that this would take 350 developers is likely complete nonsense. It also indicates that the recent big tech layoffs and hiring re…

Yeah this app seems like a simple wrapper around an LLM.

Seems like something a senior could build a prototype in a week and a product in a month.

Perhaps the "AI matchmaking" feature would take a lot of resources not done with AI, but that goes toward the point of AI creating things not possible before, not replacing existing development

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#47

Post by LightBug1 »

guywithahat wrote: post #24
throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy. Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast…

Why are the lower-IQ individuals high?

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#48

Post by bluefirebrand »

guywithahat wrote: post #24
throwaway29303 wrote: post #13

Can someone, more informed than me, about the job landscape, name these jobs people keep claiming AI is creating? Thank you in advance.

It's just basic economics; when something makes the economy more efficient, it doesn't destroy jobs forever, people get new, better jobs in a more efficient economy. Perhaps AI will finally raise the bar so high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again. I don't think I've seen a respected economist go on a news broadcast…

> high lower-IQ individuals won't be able to find any meaningful employment, but this has never happened in before and I doubt it'll happen again

"Meaningful" is a bit weasely here. If a skilled factory worker had their job offshored in the past and wound up employed at Walmart after, they did not find "meaningful" work

It has happened plenty of times

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#49

Post by BurningFrog »

As a Software Engineer, Gawdat has no expertise in job creation. If an Economist said the same, I'd pay more attention.

It's very counterintuitive, but for 250 years tech has constantly eliminated jobs, while unemployment rates have stayed the same.

People have always predicted this would lead to mass unemployment, they've always been wrong, and yet they've kept predicting it.

One way to explain it is that unemployed people are an unused resource, and free market economies are very good at finding uses for those.

Re: Ex-Google Exec Says "The Idea That AI Will Create New Jobs Is 100% Crap"

#50

Post by stego-tech »

mnmalst wrote: post #37
stego-tech wrote: post #30

It’s what us doomers have been saying all along: Even if we’re wrong and these LLMs can replace all or most professional jobs, it won’t create new jobs to replace the lost ones because the AI can replace most labor . For a global economy built on consumers spending money on goods and services, this is a death spiral where fewer jobs mean fewer consumers, which weakens demand, which lowers revenues (corporate and tax…

This is exactly how I feel as well and doing so for a while now. I lost all motivation to work, or life in general. I just don't see a good outcome, why care at all.

Build communities. Build social connections. It’s totally valid to pull back from work given everything going on (stagnant wages, longer hours, frequent layoffs, AI threats, surveillance, etc), but you gotta put that energy somewhere else.

Make friends. Start a game night or hackathon with friends. Pick up new skills you’ve been putting off. Finding personal meaning outside of work is the key to surviving times like these.

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