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What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

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Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Every single article on this domain is just human hallucination. Little to none research and due diligence done. By the way, The latest article before this one was "tokens are getting more expensive". (One week before $1.25/$10 GPT5 releases. Talking about aging like milk...)

[flagged]

Thank you for reminding me words have meanings! I never know that.

I'll keep using "human hallucination" to describe bullshit articles about AI though.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#42

This is a highly speculative post, with conjectures presented as facts. Some things that irked me: - Cursor did not hire Anthropic's "researchers". It hired the guys who built Claude code (PM and dev). Who then promptly went back to Anthropic in 14 days. A researcher for Cursor need not come from Anthropic either. One high profile recruit for them was Jack Gallagher (Midjourney) who is probably one of the best at RL.…

Every single article on this domain is just human hallucination. Little to none research and due diligence done. By the way, The latest article before this one was "tokens are getting more expensive". (One week before $1.25/$10 GPT5 releases. Talking about aging like milk...)

[deleted]

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#43
post #26

This is a highly speculative post, with conjectures presented as facts. Some things that irked me: - Cursor did not hire Anthropic's "researchers". It hired the guys who built Claude code (PM and dev). Who then promptly went back to Anthropic in 14 days. A researcher for Cursor need not come from Anthropic either. One high profile recruit for them was Jack Gallagher (Midjourney) who is probably one of the best at RL.…

> Google's deal with Windsurf is structured that way because they likely could not directly acquire, or were not confident that it would have gotten past the antitrust I've been following OpenAI, Google, and Microsoft's acquisitions over the last five years, and the US government has given them the green light when it comes to AI. It makes sense since the FTC and DOJ directors are appointed by the government, and the…

Meta's case might be different, and hence i wrote it as scale would have been acquired in past times instead of an investment like they did today. For other companies, the hiring aspect avoids M&A filings, balance sheet consolidation, and still give the big tech companies access to IP and talent. Easier path to get what you want than say Wiz acquisition still waiting to be completed. The stance may have recently changed, but seems like big tech companies are not testing it. (it's also not just US, but other jurisdictions have a say too. Meta had to sell Giphy due to issue raised by UK/Europe)

Re Microsoft and Windsurf, this[1] article claims Windsurf did not want MS accessing it's intellectual property, a default condition for Microsoft OpenAI deal.

> Windsurf didn’t want Microsoft to have access to its intellectual property — a condition that OpenAI was unsuccessful in getting Microsoft’s agreement on, people familiar said. That was one of several sticking points in Microsoft and OpenAI’s ongoing talks about the AI company’s effort to restructure into a commercial entity. Microsoft’s existing agreement with OpenAI says the software giant is entitled to access the startup’s technology.

This is different from Microsoft not wanting openai to compete with Github copilot, given thats what they do with Codex anyway.

> Knowledge is extremely valuable when it comes to AI/ML We agree on that, but even in the past most acquisitions would value teams at a certain cost too. Without the team that built it, any company would struggle to get a good multiple. OP's claim was that lower multiple was cos of margins only, and i disagreed there.

[1]: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2025-07-11/openai-s-...

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#44

This is a highly speculative post, with conjectures presented as facts. Some things that irked me: - Cursor did not hire Anthropic's "researchers". It hired the guys who built Claude code (PM and dev). Who then promptly went back to Anthropic in 14 days. A researcher for Cursor need not come from Anthropic either. One high profile recruit for them was Jack Gallagher (Midjourney) who is probably one of the best at RL.…

> Google's deal with Windsurf is structured that way because they likely could not directly acquire, or were not confident that it would have gotten past the antitrust. A signal for that is such deal increased in last few years after FTC refused to allow any deal over $100M or so. Any proof of this? It's quite speculative. Also FTC scrutiny is not escaped if you only acquire a percentage of a company to avoid antitru…

This is speculated as the reason as blockbuster acquihires have risen:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-07-17/meta-g...

https://natlawreview.com/article/rise-acquihiring-post-layof...

https://bowoftheseus.substack.com/p/update-the-gut-and-licen...

Meta's case is interesting. In the past, for what they want, I still feel they would have just acquired the company and be done with it. Now, they explored more paths, and ended up negotiating for Scale AI's stake.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#45
post #2

openai's $3b acquisition of windsurf falls apart. after months of negotiations, they walk away. That isn't accurate. Microsoft was an OpenAI investor and had rights and for MS reasons, exercised them. That's what killed the deal. google announces they're paying $2.4b to hire windsurf's ceo and 41 researchers for deepmind. not to acquire windsurf. just the humans. the same day openai walks. what a coincidence! That is…

> Google also licensed the Windsurf IP. Exactly! That definitely means that the $82M ARR business and the tech behind it is definitely valuable to Google

Far more likely is that they needed to do this so that whoever does own windsurf at the end of this can’t sue Google on account of all the IP that the former employees walked off with.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#46
post #2

openai's $3b acquisition of windsurf falls apart. after months of negotiations, they walk away. That isn't accurate. Microsoft was an OpenAI investor and had rights and for MS reasons, exercised them. That's what killed the deal. google announces they're paying $2.4b to hire windsurf's ceo and 41 researchers for deepmind. not to acquire windsurf. just the humans. the same day openai walks. what a coincidence! That is…

> My question is what happened to the $2.4B? Paying debitors and investors?

100% employee bonuses

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So like crypto bubble with extra steps

Its the same people, so yes.

well the VCs, yeah.

But the M7 are doing some actual work. DeepMind is doing some projects that are changing the world for 10 years. Like their research in protein folding, general chemistry physics, biology, medicine.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#48
post #2

openai's $3b acquisition of windsurf falls apart. after months of negotiations, they walk away. That isn't accurate. Microsoft was an OpenAI investor and had rights and for MS reasons, exercised them. That's what killed the deal. google announces they're paying $2.4b to hire windsurf's ceo and 41 researchers for deepmind. not to acquire windsurf. just the humans. the same day openai walks. what a coincidence! That is…

If a #2 employee of such a unicorn startup with so much funding got dealt such a blow in this deal, what does this tell us about our prospects as employees of any startup?

Isn't this an admission that you cannot get rich by getting a job at a hot private early-stage startup? Even if you're the employee #2?

That you'd be far more likely to get rich by getting a job at Google / Meta / Amazon, getting rich through RSU time-of-award to time-of-disposition growth, then doing private investing in a company like Windsurf, then getting even richer as an investor, all actual employees creating value be damned?

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#49
post #48
post #2

openai's $3b acquisition of windsurf falls apart. after months of negotiations, they walk away. That isn't accurate. Microsoft was an OpenAI investor and had rights and for MS reasons, exercised them. That's what killed the deal. google announces they're paying $2.4b to hire windsurf's ceo and 41 researchers for deepmind. not to acquire windsurf. just the humans. the same day openai walks. what a coincidence! That is…

If a #2 employee of such a unicorn startup with so much funding got dealt such a blow in this deal, what does this tell us about our prospects as employees of any startup? Isn't this an admission that you cannot get rich by getting a job at a hot private early-stage startup? Even if you're the employee #2? That you'd be far more likely to get rich by getting a job at Google / Meta / Amazon, getting rich through RSU t…

Yes exactly. The VCs and investors have broken the unwritten contract that early startup employees can see an exit like the founders.

It’s going to be much more difficult to get employees for early stage startups from here on out.

Re: What the Windsurf sale means for the AI coding ecosystem

#50
post #48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If a #2 employee of such a unicorn startup with so much funding got dealt such a blow in this deal, what does this tell us about our prospects as employees of any startup? Isn't this an admission that you cannot get rich by getting a job at a hot private early-stage startup? Even if you're the employee #2? That you'd be far more likely to get rich by getting a job at Google / Meta / Amazon, getting rich through RSU t…

Yes exactly. The VCs and investors have broken the unwritten contract that early startup employees can see an exit like the founders. It’s going to be much more difficult to get employees for early stage startups from here on out.

This has actually always been the case (Dan Luu's article from 2015 comes to mind), but, previously, it required doing a bit of actual math, and doing a bit of reading:

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=10758278 (2015 danluu.com/startup-tradeoffs)

This Windsurf employee #2 revelation of the 99% loss in value for employee stock, is simply a confirmation of an existing practice, just more visible and easier to reason about.

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