41–50 of 168 posts
Ethical approach? hell no. What do you expect from an unregulated capitalistic system.
I believe this is a "good" bubble in the sense that the 19th century railroad bubble and original dot com bubble both ended up invested in infrastructure that created immense value. That said, all of these LLMs are interchangeable, there are no moats, and the profit will almost entirely be in the "last mile," in local subject matter experts applying this technology to their bespoke business processes.
> "good" bubble in the sense how can massively buying hardware that will have to be thrown away in a few years be a "good" bubble in the sense of being a lasting infrastructure investment?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> next source of growth How large is the US military contract market for the kinds of products and services these companies produce? For reference, their combined 2024 revenue was around $2 Trillion.
Surveillance? They have an exceptionally valuable product if they package it right.
So valuable that it will be next main source of growth (what was claimed) for Amazon, Apple, Alphabet, Microsoft, Nvidia, Meta, and Tesla?
The US military budget is less than $1 trillion per annum. these companies had a combined revenue of $2 trillion. For military contracts to be THE new source of growth, the military budget would have to be how much larger?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
So, how do you feel about the recent IMO stuff? Don't they cause a consistency problem for your view that we've plateaued-- to me at least, I felt we were something like two years away from this kind of thing. Probably very expensive to run of course, probably ridiculously so, but they were able to solve really difficult maths problems.
The biological brain of the top human IMO guy runs on 20 watts. I wonder how much electricity Google used to match that performance.
I believe this is a "good" bubble in the sense that the 19th century railroad bubble and original dot com bubble both ended up invested in infrastructure that created immense value. That said, all of these LLMs are interchangeable, there are no moats, and the profit will almost entirely be in the "last mile," in local subject matter experts applying this technology to their bespoke business processes.
> "good" bubble in the sense how can massively buying hardware that will have to be thrown away in a few years be a "good" bubble in the sense of being a lasting infrastructure investment?
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> "good" bubble in the sense how can massively buying hardware that will have to be thrown away in a few years be a "good" bubble in the sense of being a lasting infrastructure investment?
Completely agree. I would ask also what “infrastructure” the dotcom bubble created?
Are we in a bubble that's going to pop and take a large part of the economy with it? Almost certainly. Does it mean that the AI is a scam? Not really. After all, the Internet did not disappear after the dotcom burst, and, actually, almost everything we were promised by the dotcoms became reality at some point.
"doing everything on the internet" definitely worked out, but I don't see why that implies "GPU accelerated LLMs will replace large swathes of human labor" will also be true
But agreed on the overall meaning of the comment, LLMs promises are still exaggerated.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
> "good" bubble in the sense how can massively buying hardware that will have to be thrown away in a few years be a "good" bubble in the sense of being a lasting infrastructure investment?
Completely agree. I would ask also what “infrastructure” the dotcom bubble created?