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What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

derekthompson.org

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Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#41
post #29

(Purely anecdotally, my own and my peers experience) We’re seeing educated people waiting longer in life to have children. Fertility drops, assistance from older generations drops, the village has gone, nursery and care prices are ridiculously high, support from the government (UK) is a bit of a farce if you’re earning anything more than a living wage in cities, the opportunity cost of a parent putting a (more develo…

Costs $2500-4000/mo for infant care where I am. On top of a $3000/mo mortgage. NE USA. When I see a family of 5 my first thought is "holy fuck they must be loaded." Either that or they have one parent who cannot be employed outside the home.

[deleted]

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#42
There needs to be a mind shift. It will probably take a generation.

Being online is not the same as being in the real world.

You have to take risks, including speaking with people, face to face, and forming meaningful relationships.

Swiping right is not the same as approaching someone attractive in person.

Complaining on Reddit is not the same as talking directly with lawmakers.

Interpersonal communication, persuasion, is hard work that should be re-embraced.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#43

Optimism. And unfortunately based on the doom and gloom that the news and social media constantly shoves in our faces, we have a short supply of that.

Doom and gloom that is somewhat substantiated by material reality. The world is getting warmer and nothing is done about it. Far right populism is getting more and more popular, with no end in sight. No way am I bringing kids in this environment.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#44

Optimism. And unfortunately based on the doom and gloom that the news and social media constantly shoves in our faces, we have a short supply of that.

What about the doom and gloom that people are living? Low wages, expensive housing, unstable employment, and crappy medical care do not fill people with optimism.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#45

(Purely anecdotally, my own and my peers experience) We’re seeing educated people waiting longer in life to have children. Fertility drops, assistance from older generations drops, the village has gone, nursery and care prices are ridiculously high, support from the government (UK) is a bit of a farce if you’re earning anything more than a living wage in cities, the opportunity cost of a parent putting a (more develo…

> this, however people know what the sacrifices are, and very understandably don’t want to make them.

My anecdote: As a parent, when I talk to people my same age or younger without children they often greatly overestimate the sacrifices necessary to have children. I can’t tell you how many times I've heard people (who don’t have children) make wild claims like having children means you won’t have good sleep for the next decade, or that they need a 4,000 square foot house before they have kids, or that it’s impossible to raise kids in a MCOL city without earning $200-$300K.

A lot of people have locked their idea of what it’s like to have children to the newborn phase and they imagine changing diapers, paying $2-3K infant care costs, and doing night time feedings forever. I’ve had numerous conversations where people simply refuse to believe me when I tell them my kids were sleeping through the night after a couple years or potty trained by age 2.

I think a lot of this is due to class isolation combined with getting a lot of bad info from social media. When you mingle with more of the population you realize most families with kids are not earning programmer level compensation and not living in 4,000 square foot houses, yet it’s working out.

Reddit is an interesting peek into this mindset. Recently there was a thread asking for serious answers from parents about if they regretted having children. The top voted comments were all from people who said “I don’t have kids but…” followed by a claim that all their friends secretly regretted having kids or something. If you sorted by controversial there were a lot of comments from people saying they didn’t regret it and loved their kids, but they were all downvoted into the negatives. It’s wild.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#46
post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A stable population requires a fertility rate of about 2.1. It’s not about growth, it’s about stability of population at this point.

There's over 8 billion people, the population is exceptionally stable my friend.

Do you think people live forever? Population growth or shrinkage is fundamentally exponential.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#47
post #43

Optimism. And unfortunately based on the doom and gloom that the news and social media constantly shoves in our faces, we have a short supply of that.

Doom and gloom that is somewhat substantiated by material reality. The world is getting warmer and nothing is done about it. Far right populism is getting more and more popular, with no end in sight. No way am I bringing kids in this environment.

Doesn't seem to stop "some* religious people to pop 5-6 kids

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#48
My bet is on banning the pill and reversing the sexual revolution. We probably don't want to do that. Frankly, I don't think we need to do anything about this problem. Evolution will work its magic and in a couple of hundred years we'll have overpopulation the way we used to have before artificial fertilizer.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#49
post #6

What will it take to have a stable society that doesn't depend on indefinite economic/population growth?

It would take a TFR of 2.1, so depending where you live, a 40-250% increase in fertility. There is no form of civilization that works with an imploding population and inverted demographic pyramid. Not even hunter gatherers could function like that

> There is no form of civilization that works with an imploding population and inverted demographic pyramid.

No form of civilization has ever had the access to automation we have today.

And in another 20 years, I suspect that'll be even more clear.

Re: What caused the 'baby boom'? What would it take to have another?

#50
Having children younger. This builds villages and generates the community flywheel. The problem now is that it's close to impossible for the vast majority of younger people to buy a home with a single income. So the choice becomes dual income and farm out the raising of your children (requires even more money and negates the benefits of enjoying your children which is part of the reason to have them in the first place), or delay having children until you are financially secure. Couple this with the constant inundation of social media and the myriad experiences available with the click of a button and people are simply taking the short term gratification route.

Society needs to change and we need to incentivize it.

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