Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

theguardian.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 167 posts

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#41

Post by mschuster91 »

toomuchtodo wrote: post #4
JumpCrisscross wrote: post #2

“Researchers say the satellites themselves are operating normally and do not appear to have suffered any errors that would physically prevent the data from continuing to be collected and distributed, so the abrupt data halt might have been an intentional decision.” Wait, the U.S. aren’t even going to try selling the satellites? We’re just scrapping them?

The intent is to disable the capability to ignore the data. If you allow access to someone else, you're not preventing the data capture and dissemination. If the data shows hurricanes are intensifying in strength due to climate change, and you no longer capture the data, you can say with a straight face "No it isn't and you can't prove it." How large systems with exposure to these places (insurance, capital markets)…

> What do you do when you don't have the data to accurately price risk?

Insurance companies will just be sending up their own satellites, and that is the true goal. Force people to pay money to private entities for a service that used to be provided by the government for free.

Functionally, in such a system there is no difference between that and regular taxes, just in a private system there's opportunities for those in power (because you gotta have a lot of money to send up a powerful satellite) to make even more money.

With the current US administration, always look at the grifting opportunities, that will explain virtually all policy decisions.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#42

Post by deadbabe »

jonwachob91 wrote: post #27
deadbabe wrote: post #10

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It could help lower insurance costs.

That's not at all how insurance companies price risk. Unknown risk is more risk, and more risk is more expensive. Therefore, unknown hurricane data is more risky and thus more expensive. If you know your car's engine is going to need replaced after exactly 100,000 miles, you know to save up for a new engine or a new car - and you know how long you have to save, so you can precisely set aside an appropriate figure eve…

Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years. Every year people say it will be the end of Florida as we know it. But those promised hurricanes never come. The worst is some flooding and damage at coastal areas, but it’s always anti-climactic.

The real reason insurance is high is because of fraudulent claim risk. Hurricanes themselves are more or less a solved problem in Florida. That data is useless.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#43

Post by mschuster91 »

counters wrote: post #29
timewizard wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That claim does not seem justified. > 2016 failure of DMSP 19 without replacement[edit] On 11 February 2016, a power failure left both the command-and-control subsystem and its backup without the ability to reach the satellite's processor, according to the U.S. Air Force Space Command investigation released in July 2016 that also announced that DMSP 5D-3/F19 was considered to be 'lost'. The satellite's data can still…

> To anyone acting as if this is a surprise or they're suddenly caught out and have to switch to another provider, I have to wonder, with the writing on the wall for 8 years now, how have you not already updated your plans? That doesn't accurately capture the reason why there's outrage here. In the weather community, we're constantly thinking through contingencies because a great deal of things are out of our control…

> Some private companies operate PMW satellite constellations and we could accelerate the acquisition of these data, but there are limited (read: none) federal mechanisms to do this and due to vertical integration in the weather industry, the operators of these constellations may not actually be inclined to do so - and certainly won't do so on the cheap, especially for the federal government.

That's the goal, actually. You can be sure someone in the admin owns stock of these companies and pushed for this policy for this very reason.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#44

Post by JumpCrisscross »

whatshisface wrote: post #30
mnky9800n wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think it’s even more nefarious than that. They can attack other countries that claim intensifying climate and weather scenarios by saying their data is biased while claiming to have the best data in the world but not share for national security reasons. While this may seem like something unbelievable to you or me it is easily eaten up by their supporters who love propaganda. Like, my republican parents are convince…

They could claim that even with the satellites. The "alternate reality" can be anything - if facts aren't inserted into it the people inside won't know.

Idiots will buy it. The courts won’t. Cutting off the data stymies the latter.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#45

Post by mindslight »

JumpCrisscross wrote: post #28
schiffern wrote: post #19

>The loss of DMSP comes as Noaa’s weather and climate monitoring services have become critically understaffed this year as Donald Trump’s so-called “department of government efficiency” (Doge) initiative has instilled draconian cuts to federal environmental programs. Translation: "We can't actually say this was DOGE, so we're going to imply it using emotionally charged words, and 90% of folks with bad media literacy…

> We can't actually say this was DOGE The article is saying it was DOGE. DOGE directly attacked our hurricane-forecasting capacity [1]. OMB, i.e. Vought, continues that attack [2]. Given the top three states by hurricane risk voted for Trump in ‘24 [3][4] this should make for an entertaining hurricane season. (Particularly if both a red and blue state get hit and request federal assistance.) [1] https://apnews.com/ar…

[flagged]

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#46

Post by wk_end »

mschuster91 wrote: post #41
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The intent is to disable the capability to ignore the data. If you allow access to someone else, you're not preventing the data capture and dissemination. If the data shows hurricanes are intensifying in strength due to climate change, and you no longer capture the data, you can say with a straight face "No it isn't and you can't prove it." How large systems with exposure to these places (insurance, capital markets)…

> What do you do when you don't have the data to accurately price risk? Insurance companies will just be sending up their own satellites, and that is the true goal. Force people to pay money to private entities for a service that used to be provided by the government for free. Functionally, in such a system there is no difference between that and regular taxes, just in a private system there's opportunities for those…

(…and guess who’s company they’ll be contracting those launches to?)

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#47

Post by mindslight »

deadbabe wrote: post #42
jonwachob91 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's not at all how insurance companies price risk. Unknown risk is more risk, and more risk is more expensive. Therefore, unknown hurricane data is more risky and thus more expensive. If you know your car's engine is going to need replaced after exactly 100,000 miles, you know to save up for a new engine or a new car - and you know how long you have to save, so you can precisely set aside an appropriate figure eve…

Hurricane risk has been grossly exaggerated for years. Every year people say it will be the end of Florida as we know it. But those promised hurricanes never come. The worst is some flooding and damage at coastal areas, but it’s always anti-climactic. The real reason insurance is high is because of fraudulent claim risk. Hurricanes themselves are more or less a solved problem in Florida. That data is useless.

"I'm not moving the goalposts because my argument doesn't have any"

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#48

Post by Frost1x »

8bitsrule wrote: post #40

Is loss of automobiles and reverting to horses next?

We can all become Amish while Bezos, Trump, etc. fly around in their privately owned 747s. Perfect society for our capital and power ownership class… that is until the hounds are at the door threatening the security of their capital or the economy downturn makes it far enough their wealth and power won’t buy the level of opulence they expect on the daily. Difficult to fly around if no one’s producing runways and jet fuel, etc.

Re: Loss of key US satellite data could send hurricane forecasting back 'decades'

#50

Post by [deleted] »

mschuster91 wrote: post #41
toomuchtodo wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The intent is to disable the capability to ignore the data. If you allow access to someone else, you're not preventing the data capture and dissemination. If the data shows hurricanes are intensifying in strength due to climate change, and you no longer capture the data, you can say with a straight face "No it isn't and you can't prove it." How large systems with exposure to these places (insurance, capital markets)…

> What do you do when you don't have the data to accurately price risk? Insurance companies will just be sending up their own satellites, and that is the true goal. Force people to pay money to private entities for a service that used to be provided by the government for free. Functionally, in such a system there is no difference between that and regular taxes, just in a private system there's opportunities for those…

[deleted]
Post reply on HN