Honestly, AI progress suffers because of these export restrictions. An open source model that can compete with Gemini Pro 2.5 and o3 is good for the world, and good for AI
"Then business will have to suffer."
DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
41–50 of 186 posts
Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#42"We had difficulties accessing OpenAI, our data provider." /s
Rumour was that DeepSeek used the outputs of the thinking steps in OpenAI's reasoning model (o1 at the time) to traing DeepSeek's Large Reasoning Model R1.
I don't think so. They came up with a new RL algorithm that's just better.
Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#43So Nvidia stock is going to crash hard when the Chinese inevitably produce their own competitive chip. Though I’m baffled by the fact they don’t just license and pump out billions of AMD chips. Nvidia is ahead, but not that far ahead. My consumer AMD card (7900 XTX) outperforms the 15x more expensive Nvidia server chip (L40S) that I was using.
I don't know why this isn't the crux of our current geopolitical spat. Surely it would be cheaper and easier for the CCP to develop their own chipmaking capacity than going to war in the Taiwan strait?
US will intervene militarily to stop China from taking control of TSMC if Taiwan isn't pressured by US to destroy the plants themselves, so I don't think taking Taiwan is a viable path to leading in silica only lowering US ability but given the current gap in GPUs it's not clear how helpful this is to China. So all in all I don't think China views taking Taiwan as beneficial in the AI race at all.
Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your views on this question are going to differ a lot depending on the probability you assign to a conflict with China in the next five years. I feel like that number should be offered up for scrutiny before a discussion on the cost vs benefits of export controls even starts.
Are you saying that large-model capabilities would make a substantial difference in a military conflict within the next five years? Because we aren’t seeing any signs of that in, say, the Ukraine war.
small scale drones are in use in that conflict. On device AI would be a game-changer no?
Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
This, my guess is OpenAI wised up after r1 and put safeguards in place for o3 that it didn't have for o1, hence the delay.
I think that's unlikely. DeepSeek-R1 0528 performs almost as well as o3 in AI quality benchmarks. So, either OpenAI didn't restrict access, DeepSeek wasn't using OpenAI's output, or using OpenAI's output doesn't have a material impact in DeepSeek's performance. https://artificialanalysis.ai/?models=gpt-4-1%2Co4-mini%2Co3...
almost as well as o3? kind of like gemini 2.5? I dug deeper and surprise surprise: https://techcrunch.com/2025/06/03/deepseek-may-have-used-goo...
I am not at all surprised, the CCP views AI race as absolutely critical for their own survival...
Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#46So Nvidia stock is going to crash hard when the Chinese inevitably produce their own competitive chip. Though I’m baffled by the fact they don’t just license and pump out billions of AMD chips. Nvidia is ahead, but not that far ahead. My consumer AMD card (7900 XTX) outperforms the 15x more expensive Nvidia server chip (L40S) that I was using.
I don't know why this isn't the crux of our current geopolitical spat. Surely it would be cheaper and easier for the CCP to develop their own chipmaking capacity than going to war in the Taiwan strait?
A problem they face in building their own capacity is that ASML isn't allowed to export their newest machines to China. The US has even pressured them to stop servicing some machines already in China. They've been working on getting their own ASML competitor for decades, but so far unsuccessfully.
Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#47The title of the article is "DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress" but the body of the article says launch stalled because there is a lack of GPU capacity due to export restrictions, not because a lack of progress. The body does not even mention the word "progress". I can't imagine demand would be greater for R2 than for R1 unless it was a major leap ahead. Maybe R2 is going to be a larger/less perform…
The article says this: >June 26 (Reuters) - Chinese AI startup DeepSeek has not yet determined the timing of the release of its R2 model as CEO Liang Wenfeng is not satisfied with its performance, >Over the past several months, DeepSeek's engineers have been working to refine R2 until Liang gives the green light for release, according to The Information. But yes, it is strange how the majority of the article is about…
I also find it strange. Do you think that it could be for political reasons?
Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
I am pretty sure that the information has no access to / sources at Deepseek. At most they are basing their article on selective random internet chatter amongst those who follow Chinese ai.
Presumably there is a CEO statement somewhere. If DeepSeek said May, but it is almost July, that would call for some comment from them. Although I'd like to know the source for the "this is because of chip sanctions" angle. SMIC is claiming they can manufacture at 5nm and a large number of chips at 7nm can get get the same amount of compute of anything Nvidia produces. It wouldn't be market-leading competitive but de…
> If DeepSeek said May
It is pretty strange that DeepSeek didn't say May anywhere, that was also a Reuters report based on "three people familiar with the company".[1] DeepSeek itself did not respond and did not make any claims about the timeline, ever.
[1]: https://www.reuters.com/technology/artificial-intelligence/d...
Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm not American. Ever since I've been old enough to understand the world, the only country constantly at war everywhere is America. An all-powerful American AI is scarier to me than an open source Chinese one
As Russian I only recently started to understand that russian government was at wars for a lot of its existence from USSR times: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_wars_involving_Russia#... . Many invasions and wars in places Russia should have no business in. Most of them not publicized in the country. Unlike US it was not spreading liberal values of individual freedom and against violent dictatorships, actually…
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Re: DeepSeek R2 launch stalled as CEO balks at progress
#50I wonder how different things would be if the CPU and GPU supply chain was more distributed globally: if we were at a point where we'd have models (edit: of hardware, my bad on the wording) developed and produced in the EU, as well as other parts of the world. Maybe then we wouldn't be beholden to Nvidia's whims (sour spot in regards to buying their cards and the costs of those, vs what Intel is trying to do with the…
> if we were at a point where we'd have models developed and produced in the EU, as well as other parts of the world.
But we have models developing and being produced outside of the US already, both in Asia but also Europe. Sure, it would be cool to see more from South America and Africa, but the playing field is not just in the US anymore, particularly when it comes to open weights (which seems more of a "world benefit" than closed APIs), then the US is lagging far behind.