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Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

electrek.co

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Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#41

Post by blindriver »

cowthulhu wrote: post #16
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

Tesla has proven to be very good at lying, moving goalposts, and insisting that this time [x] is right around the corner. I don't know what would be different this time. They might launch it with, like, 5 cars total, or have it be 100% teleoperated, or limit it to side roads. They might require the passenger to sit in the drivers seat and take liability, or push it back a few more months, or only run it at 3AM when t…

Tesla has lost a lot of their lustre this year. Sales plummeting is incontrovertible. Just based on that alone is devastating. But this robotaxi lack of success will not be treated the same anymore.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#42

Post by sjsdaiuasgdia »

turnsout wrote: post #18
RajT88 wrote: post #3

Earlier quoted context omitted.

So - the cooked-ness of Tesla may depend on what you think Musk's goal was with Tesla. If you believe he was out to change the world - maybe he'll let Tesla die. It's unlikely they are going to accomplish much else at this point, better, smarter more experienced competitors are sweeping the board. If you believe he's out to make as much money as he can, he'll probably course correct at some point. Lidar it is clear w…

I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can. He's already made his money. Now he's gone full Howard Hughes. "I would like to die on Mars" is a direct quote.

> I don't understand how you could look at Elon's actions and think he has any interest in making as much money as he can.

Oh totally. That's why when Tesla shareholders sued Tesla over Elon's massive compensation package, Elon said, "I reject the compensation package entirely. Pay me nothing! Actually, I'll pay you to let me work here!"

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#43

Post by philips »

jjcm wrote: post #11

I own two Teslas, and drive between Portland and Seattle about once every 10 days, using FSD nearly the entire way. FSD has gotten amazingly better over the last year, it can and has taken me from driveway to driveway between two cities... when the weather is nice. As soon as there is any weather however, things start to fall apart. It's very clear to me that vision alone wont be the solution to FSD, and is the main…

I have a Tesla with HW3 and FSD is an absolute dangerous joke. It nearly pulled me into a curb on its first attempt to enter a freeway.

Also, I think it keeps getting overlooked that freeways are designed from the ground up as a exclusive use of motorized vehicles. FSD performs OK there. But, taxi services are everywhere in cities around the clock in all sorts of weather. And I can't imagine trusting FSD for that use case.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#44

Post by laidoffamazon »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

Unfortunately I think Elon can remain a cult leader longer than you can stay solvent

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#45

Post by moralestapia »

WorkerBee28474 wrote: post #7
blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent.

Sure, tell that to Theranos' executives.

Oh yeah, you can't, they're in jail.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#46

Post by AlotOfReading »

ceejayoz wrote: post #34
AlotOfReading wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Cruise in SF was a bit of a freak accident. There were systematic issues that exacerbated the issue, but it wasn't an issue of bad disengagement numbers. In fact, Cruise 2023 actually highlights how misleading disengagement numbers can be, as they reported 0 critical disengagements the entire year over 583k miles. Waymo is extremely consistent about their numbers and they typically sandbag themselves relative to thei…

> Cruise in SF was a bit of a freak accident. The ensuing cover-up attempt wasn't, though.

I think we can agree that people trying to cover-up a horrific accident by lying to regulators is a somewhat different issue though.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#47

Post by tuckerman »

leesec wrote: post #8

I personally think it'll be fine. FSD is perfect for all my driving. It's been 3000-4000 miles since my last takeover. I know an uber driver who's driven his 16k miles without a safety intervention. And this is without them superfinetuning and doing custom navigation/mapping on a specific town.

I'm a huge proponent of e2e learning for robotics (worked at two places doing e2e before Tesla adopted it) and personally believe its the right approach long term. I also have FSD on my Model 3 and love it for L2+. That said, my experience with disengagements is very different than yours.. I have a few a week for things like road works, school zones, route map following. Perfectly fine for L2+, L4 it would be unacceptable.

If these robotaxis end up looking more like my experience than yours then another layer of trouble will be root causing and fixing failure modes. Training models e2e makes both of these much more difficult.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#48

Post by stronglikedan »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

> But Elon has killed his brand with his politics

I think a lot of people would like to think this is true, ironically because of his politics.

Re: Tesla Robotaxi launch is a dangerous game of smoke and mirrors

#50

Post by danans »

blindriver wrote: post #4

I have over $100k in Tesla puts. There is no way Tesla survives this. They have plummeting sales every quarter, and Elon is pushing out a product that is going to get into an accident within the first week. Robotaxis are glorified Ubers and will never level up to Waymos. FSD is useless if you have to keep your eye on the wheel and road. I have a Tesla Model Y. It's my favorite car I've ever driven. I subscribed to FS…

> But Elon has killed his brand with his politics, and the robotaxi initiative is a desperate attempt to gain ground. But it's going to kill someone and it will be 100% on him because he's the one pushing this when there's no way it will ever be ready for real world situations the way Waymo is.

What if his political allies allow and enable him to push this upon the populace despite it killing people.

After all, other industries have been allowed to kill plenty of people if it makes money and lines the pockets of friendly politicians of all stripes.

Maybe nobody is forcing you to get in a robotaxi, but behavior normalization based on availability is a powerful force.

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