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Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

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Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#41

Post by ty6853 »

hshdhdhj4444 wrote: post #8
ty6853 wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Anyone with 0.1% of a brain switched to hard assets during the COVID ~0% money printing mania.

And they would have lost a record increase in U.S. assets across the board, including the US dollar, which should have gone down if the problem was money printing. It’s rare to have such a clearly evident case of cause and effect. We know why yields are going up. Because investors don’t believe the U.S. government can control their budget deficits. The recent rising yields have little to do with money printing from 4…

When the US government can't control their budget deficits, one of the way they dissolve those liabilities is through inflationary activities.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#42

Post by AnimalMuppet »

hedora wrote: post #15
jameslk wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This present issue has been caused by decades of bad fiscal policy by both parties: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEGDQ188S Here for example, the Congressional Budget Office, forecasted federal debt as a percent of GDP would continue to rise unchecked, back in 2023 : https://www.cbo.gov/publication/59014 The only presidential politician who sounded the alarm was Ross Perot, all the way back in the 90s. Lyn Ald…

Clinton balanced the budget back in the 90’s. Biden and Obama’s terms were almost entirely defined by picking up economic disasters the previous administration caused. (2009 marked the beginning of the housing crisis, bank defaults due to deregulation and occupy wall street. 2021 was mid pandemic, after Trump spent years printing money with his zero interest rate stuff and tax cuts. He also fired the US funded team t…

Clinton came into office. At the start of his first term, he presented his plan to "balance the budget", which was to make small cuts for the next eight years, then large cuts thereafter - after his second term ended!

Then came 1994, and the "Contract With America". Republicans took over Congress. Their next budget made significant cuts then, not after Clinton was out of office. That's how "Clinton balanced the budget" - by a Republican Congress forcing him to live up to his words.

Lest you think this is a partisan statement, let me note that Republican Congresses never balance the budget when a Republican is President. But the historical record is that it wasn't just Clinton's achievement - a Republican Congress had to make him do what he wanted to make the next president do.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#43

Post by 9283409232 »

mindslight wrote: post #4

Does anyone else have the sickening feeling that their actual plan is to straight up destroy USD, with the looters fleeing to hard assets and foreign/crypto currency, and the plebs' currency crisis then serving as the justification for naked fascism red in tooth and claw? With the narrative then shifting to the usual "Democrats did this! And we tried to stop it but we were too late!" nonsense, backed up by an army of…

I've been saying for a while the goal is to eventually back the dollar with cryptocurrency that they all own.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#44

Post by aaronbaugher »

AnimalMuppet wrote: post #42
hedora wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Clinton balanced the budget back in the 90’s. Biden and Obama’s terms were almost entirely defined by picking up economic disasters the previous administration caused. (2009 marked the beginning of the housing crisis, bank defaults due to deregulation and occupy wall street. 2021 was mid pandemic, after Trump spent years printing money with his zero interest rate stuff and tax cuts. He also fired the US funded team t…

Clinton came into office. At the start of his first term, he presented his plan to "balance the budget", which was to make small cuts for the next eight years, then large cuts thereafter - after his second term ended! Then came 1994, and the "Contract With America". Republicans took over Congress. Their next budget made significant cuts then , not after Clinton was out of office. That's how "Clinton balanced the budg…

That was an annual joke back then. Every year they'd present a budget that had spending increases in the first couple years, "balanced" by cuts in the "out years" 5-10 years in the future. Of course, the next year there would be a new budget that invalidated all the future cuts but kept the increases that had already taken effect.

Then at some point they just stopped pretending to balance it at all, and no one seemed to care much.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#45

Post by mindslight »

suraci wrote: post #36
mindslight wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's a bit of a stretch to call this juxtaposition of topics, with absolutely zero analysis of how they're connected, honest: > we tax hardworking Americans mightily to finance global security. On the financial side, the reserve function of the dollar has caused persistent currency distortions and contributed, along with other countries’ unfair barriers to trade, to unsustainable trade deficits. Money is fungible bet…

(relatively) I call this kind of nonsense that can be seen through at a glance an 'relatively honest lie' those lines you quoted are nonsense that can be totally ignored without misunderstanding his point, those lines are like something as "get schwifty" > Second, they can get schwifty by opening their markets and buying more from America > Fifth, they could simply write checks to Treasury that help us get schwifty

SMH, the mental contortions people will go through to rationalize and whitewash the actions of this administration. You're either honest or you're not. There's no such thing as honest if people just read every third sentence and invent their own meanings for the rest. That's called dishonest.

But even accepting your point for the sake of discussion, he is "honestly" doing what? Begging? How is that a good thing?

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#46

Post by mindslight »

jbverschoor wrote: post #38
mindslight wrote: post #4

Does anyone else have the sickening feeling that their actual plan is to straight up destroy USD, with the looters fleeing to hard assets and foreign/crypto currency, and the plebs' currency crisis then serving as the justification for naked fascism red in tooth and claw? With the narrative then shifting to the usual "Democrats did this! And we tried to stop it but we were too late!" nonsense, backed up by an army of…

It’s kind of logical right? The dollar was misused over 50 years. What’s the best way to get rid of your debt? Make the usd worthless. Various methods, but one: have another reserve currency in the world but make sure you have enough of that to stay powerful. He even gave the advice not to sell that one. It’s a good but toxic strategy. Give freely printed dollars in exchange for resources over 50years, and then make…

But how is it in our interest to make it worthless? There seems to be this continued rhetorical touchstone framing "the debt" as some looming problem that will need to be reckoned with, as if people are thinking of it as household needing to pay off a credit card bill. But in reality, if the United States's debt went away then there would no longer be such thing as a greenback - our currency IS ENTIRELY government debt. I'll repeat that again - the government's debt is our money supply. And despite the continual monetary inflation, it still has been holding its value decently well. So where exactly is this desire to destroy the government debt (aka destroy our currency) really coming from, then?

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#47

Post by jameslk »

jmye wrote: post #39
jameslk wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Here’s federal debt: https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/GFDEBTN A surplus in the billions for a few years did not meaningfully change a federal debt that’s in the trillions. Further, the surplus that paid down public debt was completely wiped out by social security and Medicare liabilities during that time Better than nothing you might say, but not the structural change needed to get the US out of the hole

[flagged]

I’ve been consistently discussing the federal debt through this whole thread. Your accusations seem trollish, disregarding my larger point about fiscal policy/debt and the context of the article (the debt), so I won’t be responding further. Good day, sir

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#48

Post by seanmcdirmid »

jameslk wrote: post #47
jmye wrote: post #39

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

I’ve been consistently discussing the federal debt through this whole thread. Your accusations seem trollish, disregarding my larger point about fiscal policy/debt and the context of the article (the debt), so I won’t be responding further. Good day, sir

This was your original question:

> How did you come to the conclusion that Clinton balanced the budget?

Having a surplus means your budget is balanced and then some.

> When have any of these presidents successfully pushed for reducing the federal deficit during their tenures? Any actual reductions to the debt you’ve seen?

You specifically mention deficits, and a surplus leads to an actual reduction in debt.

> What’s causing you to focus on presidents rather than congressional actions?

The same congress that was in charge during surplus was more than happy to put us in high deficit again.

> How do you think fiscal policy keeps getting passed through congress when there’s largely two parties that have to agree to get it done?

Gridlock is a great way of not spending money. More to the point: Clinton was ok with cutting spending as much as he was with raising taxes. He treated the deficit as if it were actually important unlike Bush, Obama, Trump, Biden.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#49

Post by nemothekid »

suraci wrote: post #10
nemothekid wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Does anyone else have the sickening feeling that their actual plan is to straight up destroy USD Stephen Miran, the chair of the Council of Economic Advisers under Trump, is pretty much trying to do this. He published 'A User's Guide to Restructuring the Global Trading System', and it pretty much outlines why they should destroy the USD - in order to bring manufacturing home, so that the warhawks will no longer hav…

I like Stephen Miran, I always like people who are (relatively) honest > CEA Chairman Steve Miran Hudson Institute Event Remarks https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefings-statements/2025/04/cea-...

I don't think this is a matter of like or disliking someone. While I can appreciate his candor in what he's trying to do - just because he's "honest" doesn't mean I agree with his policy.

What he is effectively saying is that large swaths of the American populace need to accept lower economic strength in order to decouple our reliance on our trading partners. And his reason for doing so is so that we can wage war on them. It's a completely nonsensical approach to maintain American hegemony. Why would any prefer strength through violence rather than maintaining the current system of American hegemony through trade?

While reserve currency status has it's warts, especially like he points out, the absolute immense amount of demand for US debt which fuels an uncontrolled spending crisis domestically I believe that is 1000% preferable to my daughters working in factories, and my sons dying in the Taiwan strait? For what? So that maybe the US can forcibly bomb China back into a nation of poor farmers and claim ideological victory over the communist project? It's completely inane.

You need to go one step further and ask yourself why he's proposing this. Instead of reexamining our relationship with China and asking ourselves how can we win in a multi-polar future, Miran and Trump have taken the view that China must remain a global adversary and we must maintain some sort of leverage on them.

Re: Treasury Yields Soar as Ballooning U.S. Deficit Worries Wall Street

#50

Post by trod1234 »

Yeul wrote: post #37
6510 wrote: post #30

I'm told the Wall Street folk will need to buy bonds or Trump will sink the ship. The question is, how do you expect him to refinance 7T in debt by the end of 25? Implode the dollar?

To be fair the US is too big to fail. As Europe was forced to "do whatever it takes" to save the euro and bail out Greece the entire world can't stand by and watch America sink.

This is what happens when you let delusional bankers run things.

Monetary policy fails in low interest rate environments, and you get chaotic whipsaws thereafter which grow with time. You can find reference to this if you know where to look as far back as the 1930s.

Greedy corrupt blind individuals who have managed to infect leadership win so much that they lose everything.

We are getting a front-row seat to the specifics described in the socialist calculation problem, and it won't stop with just the US. This type of fire keeps burning until the fuel is out.

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