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Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

inceptionlabs.ai

41–50 of 189 posts

Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#41
It's nice to see a team doing something different.

The cost[1] is US$1.00 per million output tokens and US$0.25 per million input tokens. By comparison, Gemini 2.5 Flash Preview charges US$0.15 per million tokens for text input and $0.60 (non-thinking) output[2].

Hmmm... at those prices they need to focus on markets where speed is especially important, eg high-frequency trading, transcription/translation services and hardware/IoT alerting!

1. https://files.littlebird.com.au/Screenshot-2025-05-01-at-9.3...

2. https://files.littlebird.com.au/pb-IQYUdv6nQo.png

Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#42

Ok. My go to puzzle is this: You have 2 minutes to cool down a cup of coffee to the lowest temp you can You have two options: 1. Add cold milk immediately, then let it sit for 2 mins. 2. Let it sit for 2 mins, then add the cold milk. Which one cools the coffee to the lowest temperature and why? And Mercury gets this right - while as of right now ChatGPT 4o get it wrong. So that’s pretty impressive.

For me, ChatGPT (the free version, GPT-4o mini I believe?) gets it right, choosing option 2 because the coffee will cool faster due to the larger temperature difference. Unless there's a gotcha somewhere in your prompt that I'm missing, like what if the temperature of the room is hotter than the coffee, or so cold that the coffee becomes colder than the milk, or something? I would be suprised if any models get it wro…

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Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#43

Super happy to see something like this getting traction. As someone that is trying to reduce my carbon footprint sometimes I feel bad about asking any model to do something trivial. With something like that perhaps the guilt will lessen

To put this into perspective, driving for an hour in an electric car (15kW avg consumption) consumes about as much energy as 50,000 chatgpt queries [0] Running your laptop for an hour would be around 100 queries.

[0] https://epoch.ai/gradient-updates/how-much-energy-does-chatg...

Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#44
post #2

There are some open weight attempts at this around too: https://old.reddit.com/r/LocalLLaMA/search?q=diffusion&restr... Saw another on Twitter past few days that looked like a better contender to Mercury, doesn't look like it got posted to LocalLLaMa, and I can't find it now. Very exciting stuff

this video showing how diffusion models generate text is mesmerizing to look at! (comment in top thread linked in your search results)

https://www.reddit.com/media?url=https://i.redd.it/xci0dlo7h...

Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#46
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Consider the entropy of the distribution of token X in these examples: "Four X" and "Four X and seven years ago". In the first case X could be pretty much anything, but in the second case we both know the only likely completion. So it seems like there would be a huge advantage in not having to run autogressively. But in practice it's less significant then you might imagine because the AR model can internally model th…

Both are conditional distributions on the context of which they were requested so like you said in the second paragraph, the difference is not significant. I see what you mean though and maybe there are use cases then where Diffusion is preferable. To me it seems the context conditional and internal model is sufficient where this problem doesn't really occur.

::nods:: in the case of diffusion though "conditional on its own (eventual) output" is more transparent and explicit.

As an example of one place that might make a difference is that some external syntax restriction in the sampler is going to enforce the next character after a space is "{".

Your normal AR LLM doesn't know about this restriction and may pick the tokens leading up to the "{" in a way which is regrettable given that there is going to be a {. The diffusion, OTOH, can avoid that error.

In the case where there isn't an artificial constraint on the sampler this doesn't come up because when its outputting the earlier tokens the AR model knows in some sense about it's own probability of outputting a { later on.

But in practice pretty much everyone engages in some amount of sampler twiddling, even if just cutting off low probability tokens.

As far as the internal model being sufficient, clearly it is or AR LLMs could hardly produce coherent English. But although it's sufficient it may not be particularly training or weight efficient.

I don't really know how these diffusion text models are trained so I can't really speculate, but it does seem to me that getting to make multiple passes might allow it less circuit depth. I think of it in terms of every AR step must expend effort predicting something about the following next few steps in order to output something sensible here, this has to be done over and over again, even though it doesn't change.

Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#47

This sounds like a neat idea but it seems like bad timing. OpenAI just released token-based that beats the best diffusion image generation. If diffusion isn't even the best at generating images, I don't know if I'm going to spend a lot of time evaluating it for text. Speed is great but it doesn't seem like other text-based model trends are going to work out of the box, like reasoning. So you have to get dLLMs up to t…

The reason image-1 is so good is because it’s the same model doing the talking and the image making. I wonder if the same would be true for a multi-modal diffusion model that can now also speak?

Facebook has their Chameleon model from 2023 that was in this space. Ancient now.

There is also this GitHub project that I played with a while ago that's trying to do this. https://github.com/GAIR-NLP/anole

Are there any OSS models that follow this approach today? Or are we waiting for somebody to hack that together?

Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#48
post #7

Not sure if I would tradeoff speed for accuracy. Yes, it's incredible boring to wait for the AI Agents in IDEs to finish their job. I get distracted and open YouTube. Once I gave a prompt so big and complex to Cline it spent 2 straight hours writing code. But after these 2 hours I spent 16 more tweaking and fixing all the stuff that wasn't working. I now realize I should have done things incrementally even when I hav…

AI field desperately needs smarter models - not faster models.

Yet deepseek has shown that more dialogue increases quality. Increasing speed is therefore important if you need thinking models.

Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#49
post #25

The linked page only compares to very old and very small models. But the pricing is higher even than the latest Gemini Flash 2.5 model, which performs far better than anything they compare to.

Their pockets are probably not as deep as Google's in terms of willingness to burn cash for market share.

If speed is your most important metric, I could still see there being a niche for this.

From a pure VC perspective though, I wonder if they'd be better off Open Sourcing their model to get faster innovation + centralization like Llama has done. (Or Mistral with keeping some models private, some public.)

Use it as marketing, get your name out there, and have people use your API when they realize they don't want to deal with scaling AI compute themselves lol

Re: Mercury: Commercial-scale diffusion language model

#50
It fails the MU Puzzle¹ by violating rules:

To transform the string "AB" to "AC" using the given rules, follow these steps:

1. *Apply Rule 1*: Add "C" to the end of "AB" (since it ends in "B"). - Result: "ABC"

2. *Apply Rule 4*: Remove the substring "CC" from "ABC". - Result: "AC"

Thus, the series of transformations is: - "AB" → "ABC" (Rule 1) - "ABC" → "AC" (Rule 4)

This sequence successfully transforms "AB" to "AC".

¹ https://matthodges.com/posts/2025-04-21-openai-o4-mini-high-...

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