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The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

mohitdagarwal.substack.com

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Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#41

Post by [deleted] »

crote wrote: post #31
ein0p wrote: post #10

How can it be "slipping" if they sell out of all their stuff years in advance? I still can't find any sanely priced 5090s. And before you point out that 5090s are not their main revenue driver, they're sold out of H100s and so on years in advance, too.

Same way they lost the crypo mining market. They are losing their biggest customers to custom in-house silicon, and smaller orders are going to compete with a market being flooded by superfluous hardware from companies which either went bust due the the AI bubble shrinking, or went bust because they weren't able to compete with the big fish.

[deleted]

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#42

Post by almostgotcaught »

voidspark wrote: post #28
01100011 wrote: post #27

Seems like another article based on the assumption that Nvidia just sits there doing nothing while everyone who has so far proven unable to compete suddenly figures it out and steals their lunch. At some point one of these Nvidia doomers will be right but there is a long line of them who failed miserably.

> everyone who has so far proven unable to compete The article explains that Nvidia's biggest customers (50% of datacenter revenue) are switching to their own hardware.

NVIDIA ain't spent much time in the NFL else they would've known "...when you’re bleeding a guy you don’t squeeze him dry right away. Contrarily, you let him do his bidding suavely. So you can bleed him next week and the week after at minimum."

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#43

Post by [deleted] »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #36
voidspark wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

His coworker simply has no idea that datacenters provide 93% of Nvidia's revenue, and a single B200 GPU sells for $40k.

> His coworker simply has no idea that datacenters provide 93% of Nvidia's revenue, and a single B200 GPU sells for $40k. Currently. :-)

[deleted]

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#44

Post by stingraycharles »

voidspark wrote: post #40
kadushka wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like the opposite to me: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-in-talks-t...

You linked to an article about Google renting an insignificant amount of additional capacity. Google runs AI / HPC workloads on their own hardware and has been doing that for more than a decade. Google Gemini was trained on TPUs developed in house. It does not run on Nvidia hardware.

And I believe Apple refuses to use NVidia as well, they’re actually using Google’s TPUs.

https://www.tomshardware.com/tech-industry/artificial-intell...

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#45

Post by bsder »

ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

> I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does.

Agreed, and for all the "price crash" I still can't just whip out my credit card and purchase an hour or two on an H100/B100.

It's still multi-year contracts and "Contact Sales".

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#46

Post by kadushka »

voidspark wrote: post #40
kadushka wrote: post #34

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Seems like the opposite to me: https://www.datacenterdynamics.com/en/news/google-in-talks-t...

You linked to an article about Google renting an insignificant amount of additional capacity. Google runs AI / HPC workloads on their own hardware and has been doing that for more than a decade. Google Gemini was trained on TPUs developed in house. It does not run on Nvidia hardware.

Google, last month: “we’re doubling down on our partnership with NVIDIA”

https://blog.google/technology/ai/google-nvidia-gtc-ai/

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#47

Post by kortilla »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #6
ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

Gaming GPUs is a side business for them at this point. It’s all about AI.

To drive this point home, look at the nvidia valuation in 2010 or so before crypto gave them a non-gaming dominant business line.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#48

Post by chneu »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #29
chneu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it.

> Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. > I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it. I have a feeling that the different judgements come from the fact that the coworker thinks that the AI bubble will soon burst - thus, in his judgement, the AI data center sector of Nvidia is in…

Data centers and enterprise will always dwarf consumer hardware. AI has nothing to do with it.

You're silly if you think otherwise.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#49

Post by arvinsim »

fnordpiglet wrote: post #6
ivape wrote: post #5

Interesting, Marvell is actually down over 50% this year. I just don't understand the bear case at all. I'm a nobody and I'm still willing to buy a $1500 gpu, and that GPU still can't do what the cloud does. The next $1500 gpu probably can't either. It feels like we're over thinking this. The hardware roll-out is all there is imho. Jensen has mentioned he sees Nvidia being a 10 trillion-dollar company, and I'm willin…

Gaming GPUs is a side business for them at this point. It’s all about AI.

The supply, driver, and hardware issues that the 5000 generation of gaming GPUs has right now do show that gaming GPUs are an afterthought to them.

Re: The Future of Compute: Nvidia's Crown Is Slipping

#50

Post by kortilla »

aleph_minus_one wrote: post #29
chneu wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it.

> Gosh, I have a coworker who acts like gaming GPUs are the only hardware that matters. > I've tried explaining that one or two AI data center clients for Nvidia dwarfs the entire gaming GPU market, but he just doesn't get it. I have a feeling that the different judgements come from the fact that the coworker thinks that the AI bubble will soon burst - thus, in his judgement, the AI data center sector of Nvidia is in…

The company will unlikely make it through a collapse like that. It’s like Netflix going back to DVDs via mail.

The market is so tiny that their capex investments into AI stuff would catch them with massive debt that the gaming revenue couldn’t support and they would have to go through bankruptcy

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