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Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

nytimes.com

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Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#41

Post by heisgone »

lenerdenator wrote: post #14

I hate to say it: this might be the thing that actually screws his movement. Biden was uninspiring but ultimately did okay on a few things. The things that screwed him were inflation - some of which was Trump's fault - and his mental state, which can happen to anyone at that age. The inflation followed Harris in her run, as people were fondly remembering 2017-2019 and the era of lower prices. They thought putting Tru…

No doubt Lutnick and Bessent are taking crazy risks with their strategy. If they are to be believed, their plan is to have a recession at the begining of the term to get long term bond price lower and refinance the debt. By their own account, they outright said to Trump things aren't going to be good until 2028. So, I guess we have to prepare for a few years of crap. Let's hope it doesn't trigger a depression that would need government bailout to save the economy.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#42

Post by piva00 »

wtcactus wrote: post #33
akmarinov wrote: post #5

Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to

Well, Chinese don’t have proper elections so there, I don't know. But you can be sure that in the USA, this will all stop in 2 years with the midterms, and be reversed in 4 with the presidential elections. No one other than Trump’s fan base likes this even now, imagine in a few months when people start feeling the terrible repercussions.

The whole issue is that no one can be sure it will stop in 2 or 4 years. That's precisely the risk: will it stop? Will it not? Either way, I'm not investing some millions of dollars to setup shop in the USA if all that investment will go bust if the next election cycle removes tariffs.

Anyone saying they are sure about what is happening in the next 2-4 years in the USA is delusional.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#43

Post by dimitrios1 »

wtcactus wrote: post #33
akmarinov wrote: post #5

Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to

Well, Chinese don’t have proper elections so there, I don't know. But you can be sure that in the USA, this will all stop in 2 years with the midterms, and be reversed in 4 with the presidential elections. No one other than Trump’s fan base likes this even now, imagine in a few months when people start feeling the terrible repercussions.

I am not part of Trump's fan base, and I am in favor of taking action to reverse decades of negative trends I've seen happening as a result of American corporations selling their souls to the highest outside bidders. It's going to be short term pain for long term gain.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#44

Post by thefreeman »

alephnerd wrote: post #7
akmarinov wrote: post #5

Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to

It will suck on both sides, but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react. Congress stepping in to exclude Canada and Mexico and the NAFTA exemption cushions the blow significantly. Most of Latin America being placed at the lower end of the announcement means manufacturers who used to be competitive until China Shock set around 2014-16 can be cost competiti…

> Congress stepping in to exclude Canada and Mexico and the NAFTA exemption cushions the blow significantly.

I know the senate voted this through. But it still has to pass the house doesn't it? I doubt it will even get to be voted on with Mike Johnson as speaker.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#45

Post by whycome »

djha-skin wrote: post #35

I'm kinda happy about this. Our farmers in Utah lobby so hard for water, then use it to grow alfalfa which they sell to China because they can sell it there for more money than it can be sold locally. It boils my circuits that they ask for our precious water -- to which they have historically had an obvious right, growing our food -- and then basically ship it overseas. Keep the crops at least sold in the US, and hop…

But youve clearly defined what the problem is. Is a tariff the solution?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#46

Post by [deleted] »

TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #30
alephnerd wrote: post #7

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It will suck on both sides, but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react. Congress stepping in to exclude Canada and Mexico and the NAFTA exemption cushions the blow significantly. Most of Latin America being placed at the lower end of the announcement means manufacturers who used to be competitive until China Shock set around 2014-16 can be cost competiti…

Half of Americans say they live paycheck to paycheck, so no - the majority of households will not be able to survive for long if they have to spend an extra few thousand to stay where they are today. Those that can will be cutting spending, which will ripple across the rest of the economy. There's no sign that negotiation is even possible, never mind likely. One tell is that tariffs have been applied to the Heard and…

[deleted]

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#47

Post by amarcheschi »

alephnerd wrote: post #38
TheOtherHobbes wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Half of Americans say they live paycheck to paycheck, so no - the majority of households will not be able to survive for long if they have to spend an extra few thousand to stay where they are today. Those that can will be cutting spending, which will ripple across the rest of the economy. There's no sign that negotiation is even possible, never mind likely. One tell is that tariffs have been applied to the Heard and…

> the majority of households will not be able to survive for long if they have to spend an extra few thousand to stay where they are today. The median American household has an income of around $78,000 [0]. They can survive the blowback. The Trump admin on the other hand will not. As a Sullivan, Raimondo, and IRA supporting Dem, it's a win-win for me. Harsher policies against China have been enacted which will not be…

The whole trump thing went from prospects of economic boom to "the median household is enough wealthy to tolerate the price increase" really, really quick

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#48

Post by toxicunderGroov »

piva00 wrote: post #42
wtcactus wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Well, Chinese don’t have proper elections so there, I don't know. But you can be sure that in the USA, this will all stop in 2 years with the midterms, and be reversed in 4 with the presidential elections. No one other than Trump’s fan base likes this even now, imagine in a few months when people start feeling the terrible repercussions.

The whole issue is that no one can be sure it will stop in 2 or 4 years. That's precisely the risk: will it stop? Will it not? Either way, I'm not investing some millions of dollars to setup shop in the USA if all that investment will go bust if the next election cycle removes tariffs. Anyone saying they are sure about what is happening in the next 2-4 years in the USA is delusional.

I don't see this stopping, maybe escalate to talks about the need for a 3rd term.

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#49

Post by doom2 »

alephnerd wrote: post #7
akmarinov wrote: post #5

Wonder whether Americans or the Chinese can weather tough times better. Chinese don’t get to protest or voice dissent and Americans can’t be bothered to

It will suck on both sides, but the majority of American households can weather a $2-4k blow over the next year as supply chains react. Congress stepping in to exclude Canada and Mexico and the NAFTA exemption cushions the blow significantly. Most of Latin America being placed at the lower end of the announcement means manufacturers who used to be competitive until China Shock set around 2014-16 can be cost competiti…

It's too bad that INS v Chadha essentially gutted the National Emergencies Act, which could allow Congress to end some/all of the tariffs. In it's original form, the NEA allowed Congress to pass a concurrent resolution to terminate an emergency without needing the president's signature. Now it has to be a joint resolution, which can be vetoed by the president, and what president is going to sign off on the termination of an emergency they themselves declared?

Re: Trump's Trade War Escalates as China Retaliates with 34% Tariffs

#50

Post by ajross »

djha-skin wrote: post #35

I'm kinda happy about this. Our farmers in Utah lobby so hard for water, then use it to grow alfalfa which they sell to China because they can sell it there for more money than it can be sold locally. It boils my circuits that they ask for our precious water -- to which they have historically had an obvious right, growing our food -- and then basically ship it overseas. Keep the crops at least sold in the US, and hop…

> they can sell it there for more money than it can be sold locally

So, just to be clear here: you want Utah farmers to foot the bill for the trade war? If they are forced to sell locally for less, they're the ones losing money. Utahns end up poorer in this scenario.

Obviously in a trade war, everyone ends up poorer. It's just simple math. It's absolutely dumbfounding the extent to which people have simply decided to ignore an honest truth simply because of the lies of one political cult.

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