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Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

arcprize.org

41–50 of 103 posts

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#41

Probably openai will be >60% in three months if not immediately with these $1000/question level compute (which is the way tbh we should throw compute whenever possible that's the main advantage of silicon intelligence)

Their own admission that intelligence is a meaningless metric without bound on compute is one of the main reasons AI will overpower human intelligence soon. Simple scaling is very effective.

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Sorry, I probably phrased the question poorly. My question is more along the lines of "when you already scored e.g. OpenAI's o3 on ARC AGI 2 how did you guarantee OpenAI can't just look at its server logs to see question set 4"?

Ah yes, two things 1. We had a no-data retention agreement with them. We were assured by the highest level of their company + security division that the box our test was run on would be wiped after testing 2. We only tested o3 against the semi-private set. We didn't test it with the private eval.

Are you aware that OpenAI brazenly lied and went back on its word about its corporate structure, board governance, and for-profit status, and of the opinion that your data sharing agreement is different and less likely to be ignored? Or are you at step zero where you aren’t considering malfeasance as a possibility at all?

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#43

> and was the only benchmark to pinpoint the exact moment in late 2024 when AI moved beyond pure memorization This is self-referential, the benchmark pinpointed the time when AI went from memorization to problem solving, because the benchmark requires problem solving to complete. How do we know it requires problem solving skills? Because memorization-only LLMs can't do it but humans can. I think ARC are producing som…

The reason these tasks require fluid intelligence is because they were designed this way -- with task uniqueness/novelty as the primary goal. ARC 1 was released long before in-context learning was identified in LLMs (and designed before Transformer-based LLMs existed), so the fact that LLMs can't do ARC was never a design consideration. It just turned out this way, which confirmed our initial assumption.

Is there any other confirmation of the assumptions, other than the LLM behaviour, because that still feels like circular reasoning.

I think a similar claim could be levelled against other benchmarks or LLM evaluation tasks. One could say that the Turing test was designed to assess human intelligence, and LLMs pass it, therefore LLMs have human intelligence. This is generally considered to be false now, because we can plainly see that LLMs do not have intelligence in the same way as humans (yet? debatable, not the point), and instead we concluded that the Turing test was not the right benchmark. That's not to diminish its importance, it was hugely important as a part of AI education and possibly even AI development for decades.

ARC does seem to be pushing the boundaries, I'm just not convinced that it's testing a provable step change.

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#45
post #2

Hey HN, Greg from ARC Prize Foundation here. Alongside Mike Knoop and François Francois Chollet, we’re launching ARC-AGI-2, a frontier AI benchmark that measures a model’s ability to generalize on tasks it hasn’t seen before, and the ARC Prize 2025 competition to beat it. In Dec ‘24, ARC-AGI-1 (2019) pinpointed the moment AI moved beyond pure memorization as seen by OpenAI's o3. ARC-AGI-2 targets test-time reasoning.…

Just want to say I really love these new problems - feels like some general intelligence went into conceiving of and creating these puzzles: we just did a few over dinner as a family.

You have my wheels turning on how to get computers better at these. Looking forward to see G the first computer tech that can get 30-50% on these!

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#46
post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

ARC 3 is still spatially 2D, but it adds a time dimension, and it's interactive.

I think a lot of people got discouraged, seeing how openai solved arc agi 1 by what seems like brute forcing and throwing money at it. Do you believe arc was solved in the "spirit" of the challenge? Also all the open sourced solutions seem super specific to solving arc. Is this really leading us to human level AI at open ended tasks?

Strong emphasis on "seems".

I'd encourage you to review the definition of "brute force", and then consider the absolutely immense combinatoric space represented by the grids these puzzles use.

"Brute force" simply cannot touch these puzzles. An amount of understanding and pattern recognition is strictly required, even with the large quantities of test-time compute that were used against arc-agi-1.

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#47
post #2

Hey HN, Greg from ARC Prize Foundation here. Alongside Mike Knoop and François Francois Chollet, we’re launching ARC-AGI-2, a frontier AI benchmark that measures a model’s ability to generalize on tasks it hasn’t seen before, and the ARC Prize 2025 competition to beat it. In Dec ‘24, ARC-AGI-1 (2019) pinpointed the moment AI moved beyond pure memorization as seen by OpenAI's o3. ARC-AGI-2 targets test-time reasoning.…

Did any single individual solve all problems? How many such individuals were there?

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#48

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Ah yes, two things 1. We had a no-data retention agreement with them. We were assured by the highest level of their company + security division that the box our test was run on would be wiped after testing 2. We only tested o3 against the semi-private set. We didn't test it with the private eval.

>> We were assured by the highest level of their company + security division that the box our test was run on would be wiped after testing Yuri Geller assured us he was bending the spoons with his mind. Somehow it was only when the Amazing Randi was present that Yuri Geller couldn't bend the spoons with his mind.

Ironically "I have a magic AI test but nobody is allowed to use it" is a lot closer to the Yuri Geller situation. Tests are meant to be taken, that should be clear. And...maybe this does not apply in the academic domain, but to some extent if you cheat on an AI test "you're only cheating yourself."

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#49
post #2

Hey HN, Greg from ARC Prize Foundation here. Alongside Mike Knoop and François Francois Chollet, we’re launching ARC-AGI-2, a frontier AI benchmark that measures a model’s ability to generalize on tasks it hasn’t seen before, and the ARC Prize 2025 competition to beat it. In Dec ‘24, ARC-AGI-1 (2019) pinpointed the moment AI moved beyond pure memorization as seen by OpenAI's o3. ARC-AGI-2 targets test-time reasoning.…

I'm really pleased to see this! The original ARC-AGI-1 paper still informs how I think about "what is intelligence" today. I was thrilled to see AI models make real progress on that test precisely when we had the next big idea (reasoning). Here's to hoping round 2 falls with a similarly big breakthrough!

Re: Arc-AGI-2 and ARC Prize 2025

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think a lot of people got discouraged, seeing how openai solved arc agi 1 by what seems like brute forcing and throwing money at it. Do you believe arc was solved in the "spirit" of the challenge? Also all the open sourced solutions seem super specific to solving arc. Is this really leading us to human level AI at open ended tasks?

It's useful to know what current AI systems can achieve with unlimited test-time compute resources. Ultimately though, the "spirit of the challenge" is efficiency, which is why we're specifically looking for solutions that are at least within 1-2 order of magnitude of cost from being competitive with humans. The Kaggle leaderboard is very resource-constrained, and on the public leaderboard you need to use less than $…

Efficiency sounds like a hardware problem as much as a software problem.

$10000 in compute is a moving target, today's GPUs are much much better than 10 years ago.

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