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AMD YOLO

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Re: AMD YOLO

#41

Post by Jalad »

deadbabe wrote: post #21
Jalad wrote: post #4

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> AMD is probably undervalued, but Nvidia is clearly way overvalued. AMD trades at a price to earnings ratio of 99, NVDA trades at a PE of ~38. PE isn't everything when looking at companies, but I don't see other reasons to think AMD is undervalued

Is PE even anything? If you guided your investing based on sane PE ratios for the past decade you would have been consistently unhappy with missing out on huge gains in tech companies.

Agreed, but I don't think that's a good use for PE. PE is useful for comparisons between similar companies, not as an absolute yardstick

Re: AMD YOLO

#42

Post by ljlolel »

georgeecollins wrote: post #40

I would really love it if people on Hacker News could weigh in on how much of a moat they think CUDA really is. As in: How hard is it to use something else? If you started a project today how much would you want to get paid to not use CUDA? A lot of readers on this site have a good insight into this and it is a key question financial people are asking without the knowledge many people here possess.

So why give away the valuable knowledge away for free?

Re: AMD YOLO

#43

Post by littlestymaar »

empiricus wrote: post #38
hmm37 wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

AMD's PE ratio looks high because of their Xilinx acquisition and for tax reasons. You have to look at non-GAAP numbers instead, e.g. AMD's forward PE ratio which is only ~20 or so. Nvidia's forward PE is ~30.

just bought a little amd with zero dilligence, and now i see they aquired xilinx? why would anyone do that... remorse.

The acquisition was announced 4 and a half years ago[1] and finalized 3 years ago so it's not like it's a recent thing.

[1]: https://ir.amd.com/news-events/press-releases/detail/977/amd...

Re: AMD YOLO

#44

Post by jononor »

georgeecollins wrote: post #40

I would really love it if people on Hacker News could weigh in on how much of a moat they think CUDA really is. As in: How hard is it to use something else? If you started a project today how much would you want to get paid to not use CUDA? A lot of readers on this site have a good insight into this and it is a key question financial people are asking without the knowledge many people here possess.

One aspect that influences is how close to the bleeding edge one needs to be. And how niche the model/application is. ROCm lags by some years. And application/model/framework developers test less on it, which can be problematic in niches. For doing something very established like say image classification, that does not really matter - 3 year old CNNs will generally do the trick. But if on wants to drop in model X just put on GitHub/HuggingFace the last year, one would be buying a lot of trouble.

Re: AMD YOLO

#45

Post by ofrzeta »

ljlolel wrote: post #42
georgeecollins wrote: post #40

I would really love it if people on Hacker News could weigh in on how much of a moat they think CUDA really is. As in: How hard is it to use something else? If you started a project today how much would you want to get paid to not use CUDA? A lot of readers on this site have a good insight into this and it is a key question financial people are asking without the knowledge many people here possess.

So why give away the valuable knowledge away for free?

It's the hacker philosophy, isn't it?

Re: AMD YOLO

#46

Post by littlestymaar »

eightysixfour wrote: post #27
baal80spam wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

But they are making strides in robotics already. Jensen is super smart, business-savvy AND hard-working. These are some of many reasons I own NVDA.

Honestly, I'm having a hard time with my sarcasm detector here. Plenty of others working on robots. Plenty of smart, business savvy, hard working CEOs that didn't win the next round of the infinite game. I like nvidia, I think they're doing good work, but I don't think their current trajectory is some sort of well-moated flywheel the way some others think it is. Selling shovels during a gold rush can make you rich, i…

> Selling shovels during a gold rush can make you rich, it doesn't mean you'll still be selling shovels in 100 years.

This is the best way to put it, it's exactly this.

Re: AMD YOLO

#47

Post by blackeyeblitzar »

I saw a video the other day that showed a new AMD laptop processor that is comparable to the Apple processors in performance and battery life. That was very surprising and also a great thing for windows or Linux laptops. But at the same time, the market for these and the potential for profit isn’t really that big. Consumers are willing to pay for a premium for Apple but not anyone else.

Re: AMD YOLO

#48

Post by slater »

Cornbilly wrote: post #14

Do all of geohot's posts come off as manic to anyone else?

You should see his livestreams. Let's just say, he computers the same way his writing comes across (all while swearing up, down and sideways that he's not on anything /s ;) )

Re: AMD YOLO

#49

Post by littlestymaar »

htrp wrote: post #31

> Bought in for a quarter million. Long term. It can always dip short term, but check back in 5 years. So basically he got 2 MI300s and is currently trying to pump AMD?

> 2 MI300s

Not two cards, two boxes (with 8 cards each I'd assume).

Re: AMD YOLO

#50

Post by czk »

georgeecollins wrote: post #40

I would really love it if people on Hacker News could weigh in on how much of a moat they think CUDA really is. As in: How hard is it to use something else? If you started a project today how much would you want to get paid to not use CUDA? A lot of readers on this site have a good insight into this and it is a key question financial people are asking without the knowledge many people here possess.

SemiAnalysis has a nice write-up on MI300X vs H100/H200 and concludes that the CUDA moat is still very real: https://semianalysis.com/2024/12/22/mi300x-vs-h100-vs-h200-b...

"As fast as AMD tries to fill in the CUDA moat, NVIDIA engineers are working overtime to deepen said moat with new features, libraries, and performance updates."

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