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62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

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Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#41

Post by theluketaylor »

throwacct wrote: post #39

Interesting. I'm not from the US or Canada, but are Canadians really going to "war" against the US? They're going to lose +400B in trade potentially. No markets are waiting for those products. Just "play ball" with Trump, spend more on border security, block any drugs from entering the country that might start with the letter "f" and be done with that.

There is no playing ball. Trump has made no actionable demands and we have already spent a ton of money on the border. Less than 1% of fentanyl enters the US through Canada and we have already slashed that negligible number in the last few months.

He isn't even moving the goalposts; there are no goalposts. This is economic warfare to take over Canada's resources.

Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#43

Post by kalleboo »

outrun86 wrote: post #15
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

I am honestly baffled what this whole shitstorm is about. Like why did Trump want to bash on Canada in the first place? None of his purported reasons pass the laugh test. Fentanyl trafficking? As has been widely reported, less than 1% of fentanyl that has been caught enters through the Canadian border. And if Trump cares so much about drug trafficking, why did he pardon the Silk Road founder, which did over $200 mill…

Canadian here, who is also not a Trump fan. It is true that Canada has extremely lax border controls and there are complex organized crime networks that exploit this inside of and through Canada. The US security establishment is aware of this, as is the Canadian security establishment. The 1% fentanyl headline is indeed widely reported, it’s also a red herring. The simple answer is Canada doesn’t really look, so not…

> The simple answer is Canada doesn’t really look, so not much is seen

Wouldn't it be the US, on their side of the border, who is looking for what is coming into their country, not Canada looking at what is leaving their country? They seem to have a pretty good handle on how much is entering through the southern border.

Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#44

Post by kalleboo »

SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #40
pessimizer wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is fantasy. The guy does endless interviews and explains why he's doing everything he's doing, at length, and negotiates in public. You can hate it, but if he's addled then Biden didn't even count as alive for his entire term. The reason that he came out of the gate so hard is due to extensive planning, and he's the only person during your lifetime who was the president, had four years off to reflect on it, then…

> Economically, he's sincerely trying to keep the US from paying the piper for the trade deficit we've been running for 40 years. He obviously actually believes in this. But this is not what Trump stated. The fact sheet he published on March 3 ( https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-pr... ) doesn't mention anything about trade deficits; it says that the problem is cartel violence and fentanyl impo…

The most coherent explanation I've seen is that the only power the executive has to directly impose tariffs are from some "national security" law (intended for stuff like sanctions against war criminals), so even though he wants trade concessions, legally he has to dress it up as a national security issue.

That said, he doesn't seem to care about any other limits on the executive, and I don't even know how this strategy was meant to get the desired results (is he telling the other leaders his real requirements behind closed doors?)

Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#45

Post by billy99k »

don_neufeld wrote: post #5
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

I am honestly baffled what this whole shitstorm is about. Like why did Trump want to bash on Canada in the first place? None of his purported reasons pass the laugh test. Fentanyl trafficking? As has been widely reported, less than 1% of fentanyl that has been caught enters through the Canadian border. And if Trump cares so much about drug trafficking, why did he pardon the Silk Road founder, which did over $200 mill…

Not saying it’s true, but those behaviors make a lot more sense if you replace “Trump” with “Russian agent”, don’t they?

Does putting sanctions on Russia make sense in your scenario?

Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#46

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

kalleboo wrote: post #44
SpicyLemonZest wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Economically, he's sincerely trying to keep the US from paying the piper for the trade deficit we've been running for 40 years. He obviously actually believes in this. But this is not what Trump stated. The fact sheet he published on March 3 ( https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-pr... ) doesn't mention anything about trade deficits; it says that the problem is cartel violence and fentanyl impo…

The most coherent explanation I've seen is that the only power the executive has to directly impose tariffs are from some "national security" law (intended for stuff like sanctions against war criminals), so even though he wants trade concessions, legally he has to dress it up as a national security issue. That said, he doesn't seem to care about any other limits on the executive, and I don't even know how this strat…

If he wants trade concessions, which I agree is plausible, delaying the tariffs on only USMCA-covered goods is a significant hint that there's real backchanneling going on. I was very surprised to learn there's so many non-USMCA-covered goods, and one way or another it's fair to presume Trump is intentionally drawing attention to that fact.

But the idea that Trump has deep strategic goals he's lying to the American people about is hardly a defense. And all the information that's leaked about negotiations thus far is that Mexico and Canada are just as confused as the general public about what Trump is asking for.

Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#47

Post by zeagle »

creer wrote: post #18
hn_throwaway_99 wrote: post #3

I am honestly baffled what this whole shitstorm is about. Like why did Trump want to bash on Canada in the first place? None of his purported reasons pass the laugh test. Fentanyl trafficking? As has been widely reported, less than 1% of fentanyl that has been caught enters through the Canadian border. And if Trump cares so much about drug trafficking, why did he pardon the Silk Road founder, which did over $200 mill…

One theory was to rant at everyone about everything in the hope of getting little random trade concessions from everyone. The squeeky wheel is the one that gets greased or something. The "what" didn't matter. BUT the ranting is now at the stage where it has created chaos everywhere. And that has been costly everywhere, first of all in the US. Can the concessions make up for that cost? Is anyone in the mood for conces…

I think he is trying to set us up and also occupy the news cycle to distract. We retaliate with tariffs, he blames us for his domestic economic woes and increases tariffs, we retaliate with electricity and potash for leverage, public support for Canada slowly drops. Thus he slowly moves the goal posts eventually to seize these resources because they are of national importance. A stretch? Maybe but look at Panama, Greenland, Ukraine minerals actions.

There is no going back to the previous relationship because Canadians feel betrayed after years of big sibling adoration and blame pre-existing, worsening unrelated domestic issues on Trump’s actions. My honest take of public sentiment is it has taken such a dive at this point if 9/11 happened in this era the passengers landing in Canada could camp out on the runway huddling for warmth by barrels until busses home are arranged.

Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#48

Post by outrun86 »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #26
outrun86 wrote: post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Canadian here, who is also not a Trump fan. It is true that Canada has extremely lax border controls and there are complex organized crime networks that exploit this inside of and through Canada. The US security establishment is aware of this, as is the Canadian security establishment. The 1% fentanyl headline is indeed widely reported, it’s also a red herring. The simple answer is Canada doesn’t really look, so not…

Ordinarily when there's a really big problem, a President will go to some effort to explain to the public what the problem is, and how their actions will fix it. Apparently this problem is definitely motivation Trump and is also somehow so deeply hidden that we can only find out about it from random newsletter sites. I'm not saying that this makes it BS. But I'm also saying if this doesn't ring your BS meter, you don…

I follow what’s happening with Canadian drugs / money laundering pretty closely. The article I linked isn’t a random newsletter site, it’s from one of Canada’s top investigative journalists. Here’s the official white house statement from the Whitehouse website. I’ve heard Trump reference this multiple times:

https://www.whitehouse.gov/fact-sheets/2025/03/fact-sheet-pr...

Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#49

Post by seanmcdirmid »

ViktorRay wrote: post #7
epoxia wrote: post #4

An interesting barometer of the tensions, is by looking at Canadian grocers website. All that I have seen, have "buy Canadian" and "produced in Canada" plastered onto most products. Even Walmart has a "made in Canada" tab.

Interesting this is happening in Canada. I live in America and I have not seen too many Made In America stuff recently. Maybe that will change though

Most of your produce and groceries are made in America. It just isn’t worth it to ship broccoli from China. In Canada, it’s mostly foodstuff and soft goods also that is being discriminated against for being American, farmers, distillers, food processors, etc… are going to be the most effected.

Re: 62% of Canadians Plan to Avoid the U.S. for at Least the Next Year

#50

Post by seanmcdirmid »

WorldPeas wrote: post #8

There are several Canadians by me selling their (winter) houses at lower than market rates. I asked them about it and they cited the current situation, but I'm not sure if they were doing it to get liquidity to brace themselves for economic conflict or because they were afraid of property seizure.

If this is Florida, there is also that high home insurance cost to consider.
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