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Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

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Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#42
post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

I want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?

Lean to buying/doing a conversion vs "polished" ebike.

Buy the best lock you can afford - it should be a grinder resistant one such as hiplok or litelok.

Note that while the lock may be resistant, the thing it's locked to may be easier to cut if the thief gets frustrated and has time to steal it.

Nothing will stop someone who has the time and batteries/discs from stealing your bike.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#43
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If US allows these cheap electric cars for at least 2-3 years, I would say it would be great for everybody except car companies and Elon.

Unfortunately, the US would rather subject its consumers to legacy auto and Tesla prices and lack of competition vs enabling imports to drive down domestic prices to improve affordability. Poor policy is unfortunate.

As of tomorrow morning the US has declared war on its legacy domestic auto industry, too. Take a look at GM's stock. Trump was warned there would be plant closures if tariffs were enacted but he went ahead anyways. Doesn't show much of a preference or concern for those industries at all.

But sure, maybe Tesla. Though I suspect they use parts from Magna etc on this side of the border, too.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#44

I have an EV (Kia Niro EV 2024). I don't want ever to go back to gas. Reasons: * the driving experience is just much, much better: punch & acceleration, stability, quietness, etc. * if you charge at home it is a lot cheaper than gas * it is so easy to "fuel": you plug it in when you arrive home and unplug the next morning Edit: also, after I installed solar cells at home, I drive almost for free!

Also, if you get into an EV now, before everyone else does, you can still enjoy a cheap fueling experience for a little while longer

I can't see how they can make at home charging more expensive without making all other electricity uses expensive and that will have severe backlash.

On the go DC fast charging is already not cheap. It costs as much or more than gas.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#45
post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

I want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?

I don't. Theft risk and storage is definitely a challenge. A lot of commuters find somewhere to stash them at work. The problem might get better as ebikes become more common and lower in price.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#46
post #23

Even in cities that are pretty hostile to bikes, electric bikes/scooters are an amazing middle point between walking and all the expense of a car (purchase, loans, fuel, maintenance, insurance, registration, tickets, etc.).

I want an electric bike but I want to go places with it and I’m worried about it getting stolen when I lock it up outside a shop. Do you have one?

Insurance

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#47
post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

This is exactly the problem. It's a game in the existing market without any additional growth. it's not strange, jeff bezos can buy dozens of yachts, but most people will only buy 1 car for several years

That doesn't make any sense. There are 10s of millions of newly middle class consumers in Asia.

that's another problem - inequality in the global value chain,

China is the most important growth market for passenger vehicles for last 20+ years, this is because of China's continuous industrial upgrading, which has gradually shifted from manufacturing low value-added products (such as jeans) to producing high value-added products (such as passenger vehicles).

this brings '10s of millions of newly middle class consumers', same thing happened in Japan/Korea/Taiwan too

but now, china produced 30 million cars (12m evs) in 2024, which means China's passenger vehicle market will quickly approach saturation, even if all Chinese families purchase or replace new vehicles

btw, '10s of millions newly consumers' is a relatively small number

and there will be no other markets with '10s of millions of newly middle class consumers' unless other countries can accompolish industrial upgrading like China's did

and if these countries(India/indonesia/Vietnam) manage to do so, their industrial upgrading will intensify this competition just like what happened in China now

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#48

This things is amazing. https://www.bmwmotorcycles.com/en/models/urban_mobility/ce04...

Shows promise, yes.

Looks good for belting about a city on, where I am (rural Australian town) I'm happy with walking or a scooter for local travel .. an 80 mile range just gets me to the nearest town and back with little reserve.

A 150 mile range would be better .. that'll come I guess.

FWiW I rode the BMW R650 (light road bike) for a decade and had a GS 1250 with long range tanks for road|off road trips.

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#49
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Unfortunately, the US would rather subject its consumers to legacy auto and Tesla prices and lack of competition vs enabling imports to drive down domestic prices to improve affordability. Poor policy is unfortunate.

Did you figure out importing BYD vehicles? https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=39992428

I terminated my in process application to import the vehicle from my property outside of the US for two reasons: I no longer intend to maintain majority residency in the US for the foreseeable future (obvious reasons), and the US government is effectively banning Chinese EVs in the US [1].

Was fun to make the attempt, but sometimes city hall wins. It turns out it is easier to expat than to import a Chinese car.

[1] https://www.edmunds.com/car-news/biden-administration-effect...

Re: Global sales of combustion engine cars have peaked

#50
post #5

What's strange to me is according to the graph it's not just combustion engine cars that peaked, cars overall more or less did too, in the graph. Are trucks like the F150 not being captured by this data? How literal is "cars"?

Probably looking at total vehicles on the road would be more useful. Maybe cars got a lot more reliable 20 years ago, and so there are a lot more cars still kicking from the early 2000s which would have been scrapped in the past.
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