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The Job Market Is Frozen

theatlantic.com

41–50 of 63 posts

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#41
They are right about the tariff threats, but orange man is quick to roll those back.

Otherwise, it is hilarious to blame orange man for the current malaise. Biden provoked and escalated the Ukraine proxy war, with detrimental effects on energy prices and the world economy.

Trump seemingly tries to shut down that conflict, which would be a major boost to the world economy. Whether he'll go through with that against the powerful political interest groups is another question.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#42
post #15

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Just curious, what kind of Elon scandal do you think could move the needle at this point? Anyone capable and willing to observe his behavior has probably already acted on it. What lines are left to cross?

The needle has moved. https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-loses-1-trillion-statu... Stock is dropping, sales are falling, Elon is losing money with his antics. [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit] It may not be obvious to you, but the protests are emboldening people. https://electrek.co/2025…

> [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit]

Yes, but also that only takes the price back to early November, i.e. undoes the bubble from people thinking Trump affiliation would help.

Even after that, on the basis of the P/E ratio, I wouldn't be surprised by the share price dropping 90% from today, i.e. hovering around a price of $29/share.

That needle may yet move, but it's too soon to tell. I'd expect Musk to have an explict falling out with Trump first, not merely the current state of Trump having no interest in supporting EVs.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#43
post #41

They are right about the tariff threats, but orange man is quick to roll those back. Otherwise, it is hilarious to blame orange man for the current malaise. Biden provoked and escalated the Ukraine proxy war, with detrimental effects on energy prices and the world economy. Trump seemingly tries to shut down that conflict, which would be a major boost to the world economy. Whether he'll go through with that against th…

Trump is just completely ignoring the conflict. All negotiations in Riad were about normalising US-Russia relationship. Ukraine was barely mentioned.

US is now buying mines and land from Ukraine for bargain price. Whatever Russia or Ukraine controls those mines in 10 years, does not really matter to US government! They will get ownership, profits and resources either way!

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#44
post #15

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year. Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day. Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medic…

Just curious, what kind of Elon scandal do you think could move the needle at this point? Anyone capable and willing to observe his behavior has probably already acted on it. What lines are left to cross?

[deleted]

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#45

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year. Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day. Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medic…

NVIDIA has a massive backlog of datacenter orders. Don’t think they’re in any immediate danger of collapse

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#47
post #45

Duh. Between the chaos in Washington and the commercial real estate crisis (30% of properties are underwater) we’re going to see a big crash, probably this year. Tesla and Nvidia are both huge components of the overall market cap and drive alot of the yields in the last year or two. You’re one Elon scandal or Nvidia earnings miss away from a really bad day. Healthcare is the other wildcard. For the last decade, medic…

NVIDIA has a massive backlog of datacenter orders. Don’t think they’re in any immediate danger of collapse

Not unless their supply chain fucks up.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#48
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The needle has moved. https://www.thestreet.com/video/tesla-loses-1-trillion-statu... Stock is dropping, sales are falling, Elon is losing money with his antics. [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit] It may not be obvious to you, but the protests are emboldening people. https://electrek.co/2025…

> [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit] Yes, but also that only takes the price back to early November, i.e. undoes the bubble from people thinking Trump affiliation would help. Even after that, on the basis of the P/E ratio, I wouldn't be surprised by the share price dropping 90% from today, i…

Then I misunderstood.

I still expect further knocks if there are more protests, people believe it's making an impact (even if it's not) with the claims of closing stores.

And if the sabotage continues, then that would be an additional cost to Tesla to replace. I know I would feel skittish about holding stocks of a company that has a CEO who is actively reducing the size of their market.

And that's all separate from the potential Trump/Musk fallout. It could get very messy.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#49
post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [Edit] I'm showing a 25% drop in Tesla stock vales over this month. If Tesla is a significant part of the USA economy, then that has to be pretty painful. [/Edit] Yes, but also that only takes the price back to early November, i.e. undoes the bubble from people thinking Trump affiliation would help. Even after that, on the basis of the P/E ratio, I wouldn't be surprised by the share price dropping 90% from today, i…

Then I misunderstood. I still expect further knocks if there are more protests, people believe it's making an impact (even if it's not) with the claims of closing stores. And if the sabotage continues, then that would be an additional cost to Tesla to replace. I know I would feel skittish about holding stocks of a company that has a CEO who is actively reducing the size of their market. And that's all separate from t…

> And that's all separate from the potential Trump/Musk fallout. It could get very messy.

Indeed.

The domestic fallout for being seen as Trump's enforcer, means the next Democrat government in the US will likely find ways to terminate most or all SpaceX contracts.

Well, unless Musk has a public falling out with Trump first.

But even then, he's already too much of a chaos monkey to be trusted with security clearence for anything (including by Trump, but Trump hasn't noticed that yet).

The international fallout for being seen by international governments… best not to speculate, but there's no fundamental upper bound when it comes to actions by governments who consider him to be a threat to their interests.

Re: The Job Market Is Frozen

#50
post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You do you. If you can't stand your current job then look for a new one while doing your best at the current one. There are jobs out there and it's much easier to find a job while you have a job. Are you learning? Can you pivot a bit with your current employer to do something more interesting? Are you paid well? Ignore the articles. In the worst times of the dot com bubble burst you could still find interesting jobs.…

I find your second sentence very difficult to pull off in practice, if you have any sort of responsibility (e.g. kids). Modern interviews seem to assume you have a lot of time to dedicate to prep. In the old days, one could prep while on severance. But those seem to be becoming. Less generous and in some cases being skimped on through shenanigans.

Don't prep by doing leetcode. Skip leetcode places and places that expect multi-hour homework assignments as part of the interview process. Doing so narrows your options, but does not eliminate all openings. (In fact, I consider both leetcode and homework assignments to be negative signals about the company, or at least the team, so this can be a net win.)
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