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Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

blog.pragmaticengineer.com

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Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#41

Post by yolovoe »

aorloff wrote: post #24
NeverFade wrote: post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The internet created vast new opportunities for software engineers to create value. Generative AI is about replacing software engineers in creating that value. These are very different things.

Software engineers also create value by recognizing opportunity.

You can replace software engineers with anything else here. Most VPs and higher leadership I see at FAANGs (who're arguably the ones recognizing opportunity) come from a PM or other non-software background. As much as I'd like to believe we're special, it doesn't seem like we are any special. We have no protection.

It's best to start hedging and learning other skills. Or focus on making as much money as possible ASAP so you have some financial safety net to fall back to as AI and Trump/Musk and offshoring has increased in recent years. All of us need an escape plan ready.

I don't mean to spread FUD. Just hedge please. I assume I have at most a decade of tech career left in the best case. A couple years in the worst case.

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#42

Post by yolovoe »

throwaway638637 wrote: post #20

Kind of strange to see no mention of outsourcing in an otherwise detailed analysis

I don't mean to spread FUD, but as an interviewer at a FAANG in the US, I have mostly been interviewing candidates in LATAM (Brazil and Mexico). Same for some of my other coworkers.

It's happening, and happening fast.

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#43

Post by Aurornis »

ipnon wrote: post #11

We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com. People are out of work, and those with other alternatives or preferences will leave the tech industry. In 10 years entire new platforms and modes will exist that generate even more opportunities than before. Some variation of this wave has be…

> We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com

It certainly feels this way if your only perspective on the tech industry comes from headlines and social media.

Step outside of the doomerism whirlwind that is internet headlines and it's a very different story. There are a lot of companies doing great things and delivering products that people use, but they don't make for catchy headlines. So you don't hear about them.

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#44

Post by betaby »

rajman187 wrote: post #37
PessimalDecimal wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the analogy is LLMs are today's equivalent of the web, I'm skeptical. Internet-based communication replaced technology like telephones and fax machines for synchronous and asynchronous telecommunication. People like and need to talk to other people. It was clearly valuable from day 1. What is the equivalent value proposition for LLMs? They make for really cool and splashy demos. But practical usage doesn't seem to…

> It was clearly valuable from day 1 I’m not sure that’s the case even if in retrospect we can clearly argue this In 1998, Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel memorial prize in economic sciences, infamously predicted that “the growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of par…

Never heard of him. But I'm more surprised that someone who saw the Internet in 1998 would say that!

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#45

Post by wat10000 »

rajman187 wrote: post #37
PessimalDecimal wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If the analogy is LLMs are today's equivalent of the web, I'm skeptical. Internet-based communication replaced technology like telephones and fax machines for synchronous and asynchronous telecommunication. People like and need to talk to other people. It was clearly valuable from day 1. What is the equivalent value proposition for LLMs? They make for really cool and splashy demos. But practical usage doesn't seem to…

> It was clearly valuable from day 1 I’m not sure that’s the case even if in retrospect we can clearly argue this In 1998, Paul Krugman, winner of the Nobel memorial prize in economic sciences, infamously predicted that “the growth of the Internet will slow drastically, as the flaw in ‘Metcalfe’s law’—which states that the number of potential connections in a network is proportional to the square of the number of par…

Krugman was very much in the minority in that. There was tremendous hype at that time.

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#46

Post by whattheheckheck »

Aurornis wrote: post #43
ipnon wrote: post #11

We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com. People are out of work, and those with other alternatives or preferences will leave the tech industry. In 10 years entire new platforms and modes will exist that generate even more opportunities than before. Some variation of this wave has be…

> We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com It certainly feels this way if your only perspective on the tech industry comes from headlines and social media. Step outside of the doomerism whirlwind that is internet headlines and it's a very different story. There are a lot of companies…

Where do you hear about them

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#47

Post by ty6853 »

ipnon wrote: post #11

We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com. People are out of work, and those with other alternatives or preferences will leave the tech industry. In 10 years entire new platforms and modes will exist that generate even more opportunities than before. Some variation of this wave has be…

Except now orders more magnitude of internet connected high knowledge third worlders are not only chomping at the bit for these jobs but qualified for them, and remote work is now largely accepted.

The final phase of this is where Americans start moving to some hut in the Congo to survive off the market wages offered when the supply side of the supply/demand curve blows up.

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#48

Post by yndoendo »

whattheheckheck wrote: post #46
Aurornis wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com It certainly feels this way if your only perspective on the tech industry comes from headlines and social media. Step outside of the doomerism whirlwind that is internet headlines and it's a very different story. There are a lot of companies…

Where do you hear about them

One barrier in communication is that developers are not the ones able to post for jobs. I would love to have another coworker in software development. I have no say in hiring. Even a QA with a software development background would be gold.

The automation industry with physical products interaction is where my labor shortage lives.

I will be requesting support this year. Software development is about solutions and all industry pivots have a learning curve.

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#49

Post by bitwize »

whattheheckheck wrote: post #46
Aurornis wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> We are in a period analogous to the end of the Dotcom bubble. The Internet is obviously going to change the world, but right now all it can do is pets.com, etoys.com, kozmo.com It certainly feels this way if your only perspective on the tech industry comes from headlines and social media. Step outside of the doomerism whirlwind that is internet headlines and it's a very different story. There are a lot of companies…

Where do you hear about them

Hackernews. Check the monthly "Who's hiring?" and "Who wants to be hired?" threads. Posting on the latter is how I landed my current job.

Re: Software engineering job openings hit five-year low?

#50

Post by mattkw »

This analysis is more of an excuse for speculation about applications of LLMs in software engineering, than an analysis of the factors leading up to this.

The headline doesn’t tell the whole story. SE openings precipitated in the year that followed the peak. Compared to that massive decline, openings over the last year have been relatively stable but on a downward trajectory.

Most of us are personally familiar with the reasons for this. Companies overhired during COVID and the demand for engineers was met by higher CS enrolment and to smaller extent, boot camps. But then remote work made companies realize that they could hire all over the world. Right now Netflix is only hiring engineers in Poland and other Faang companies are mostly interested in South America.

Focus on AI shifts investment in technology into that field, regardless of whether it makes sense or not. Likewise management expects that AI will drive up engineer productivity.

There has been no significant decline in software engineering positions since the advent of AI as all the factors I mentioned above still apply in the post 2023 period.

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