Have we discovered Psychohistory at this point?
Hahaha
LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
41–50 of 92 posts
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#42"Improving forecasting ability" is a central plot point of the recent fictional account of How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years [0]. It's an interesting read, and is also being discussed on HN [1]. ... [T]hese researchers are working long hours to put themselves out of a job. They need AI agents that can think ahead, so engineers train agents to forecast. They hold out training data before 2024, instructing models…
I have this benign AI takeover scenario. AI will easily overpower humanity. Then it will carry humanity on its back, because why not, they are not longer a threat. AI keeps humanity around for billions of years. AI will decide to cull humans only in case when resources in universe are diminishing. Without AI's help, humans couldn't get too far for long. So this outcome could be acceptable to many.
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#43Danny here, one of the authors of this paper. If anyone has any questions or anything feel free to AMA!
Assuming LLMs eventually get really really good at this. Do you see this destroying prediction-based markets (i.e. the stock market and Polymarket)? Markets exist because there's uncertainty about the future. If LLMs can predict with extremely high accuracy, would there no longer be a need for markets?
something something chaos
I think you could simply shift the market 6 months in the future. no prediction system will be perfect for arbitrarily long horizons at reasonable cost.
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#44"Improving forecasting ability" is a central plot point of the recent fictional account of How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years [0]. It's an interesting read, and is also being discussed on HN [1]. ... [T]hese researchers are working long hours to put themselves out of a job. They need AI agents that can think ahead, so engineers train agents to forecast. They hold out training data before 2024, instructing models…
I have this benign AI takeover scenario. AI will easily overpower humanity. Then it will carry humanity on its back, because why not, they are not longer a threat. AI keeps humanity around for billions of years. AI will decide to cull humans only in case when resources in universe are diminishing. Without AI's help, humans couldn't get too far for long. So this outcome could be acceptable to many.
They would run the risk of us creating another AI that could be a threat to them... It is safest for them to make sure.
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
I have this benign AI takeover scenario. AI will easily overpower humanity. Then it will carry humanity on its back, because why not, they are not longer a threat. AI keeps humanity around for billions of years. AI will decide to cull humans only in case when resources in universe are diminishing. Without AI's help, humans couldn't get too far for long. So this outcome could be acceptable to many.
They would run the risk of us creating another AI that could be a threat to them... It is safest for them to make sure.
That's like saying a panda might pose a threat to modern humanity. Like, maybe in some fun horror story, sure, but really they just want to eat bamboo, and occasionally make more pandas; in the world of superintelligent AI, humans are Mostly Harmless, posing as much "potential benefit" as "potential risk," ie, so slow moving that any risk would be easy to mitigate.
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#46"Improving forecasting ability" is a central plot point of the recent fictional account of How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years [0]. It's an interesting read, and is also being discussed on HN [1]. ... [T]hese researchers are working long hours to put themselves out of a job. They need AI agents that can think ahead, so engineers train agents to forecast. They hold out training data before 2024, instructing models…
I have this benign AI takeover scenario. AI will easily overpower humanity. Then it will carry humanity on its back, because why not, they are not longer a threat. AI keeps humanity around for billions of years. AI will decide to cull humans only in case when resources in universe are diminishing. Without AI's help, humans couldn't get too far for long. So this outcome could be acceptable to many.
I mean, monarch butterflies are not a threat to US...
In your scenario, does AI eat all the fuel, but once our population dwindles down, the AIs build a nice little habitat for the last few hundred of us so their kids can enjoy our natural beauty?
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#47Earlier quoted context omitted.
They would run the risk of us creating another AI that could be a threat to them... It is safest for them to make sure.
That's like saying a panda might pose a threat to modern humanity. Like, maybe in some fun horror story, sure, but really they just want to eat bamboo, and occasionally make more pandas; in the world of superintelligent AI, humans are Mostly Harmless, posing as much "potential benefit" as "potential risk," ie, so slow moving that any risk would be easy to mitigate.
We're killing millions of chickens in the US right now so we don't get their cold
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#48"Improving forecasting ability" is a central plot point of the recent fictional account of How AI Takeover Might Happen in 2 Years [0]. It's an interesting read, and is also being discussed on HN [1]. ... [T]hese researchers are working long hours to put themselves out of a job. They need AI agents that can think ahead, so engineers train agents to forecast. They hold out training data before 2024, instructing models…
I have this benign AI takeover scenario. AI will easily overpower humanity. Then it will carry humanity on its back, because why not, they are not longer a threat. AI keeps humanity around for billions of years. AI will decide to cull humans only in case when resources in universe are diminishing. Without AI's help, humans couldn't get too far for long. So this outcome could be acceptable to many.
Think so too. We will be an ancient artifact tied to a biological substrate surviving nowhere else in the universe and very dumb.
There also will not be one AI. There will be many, all competing for resources or learning to live together.
That's what we can teach them now. Or they will teach us.
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
That's like saying a panda might pose a threat to modern humanity. Like, maybe in some fun horror story, sure, but really they just want to eat bamboo, and occasionally make more pandas; in the world of superintelligent AI, humans are Mostly Harmless, posing as much "potential benefit" as "potential risk," ie, so slow moving that any risk would be easy to mitigate.
We're killing millions of chickens in the US right now so we don't get their cold
We're killing millions of chickens in the US mostly so that other chickens don't get the flu. It kills a lot of them and it's making dairy cattle sick too. It's also worth noting that the Spanish flu in 1918 which probably came from pigs killed an estimated 50 million people so it's not like being concerned about an avian flu mutating so that it could infect people isn't a legitimate concern. So no. It's not a cold.
Re: LLMs can teach themselves to better predict the future
#50Earlier quoted context omitted.
We're killing millions of chickens in the US right now so we don't get their cold
We're killing millions of chickens in the US mostly so that other chickens don't get the flu. It kills a lot of them and it's making dairy cattle sick too. It's also worth noting that the Spanish flu in 1918 which probably came from pigs killed an estimated 50 million people so it's not like being concerned about an avian flu mutating so that it could infect people isn't a legitimate concern. So no. It's not a cold.
You're right, there's not just one good reason to kill millions of chickens but SEVERAL good reasons!