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20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

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Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#41

Post by cyberlurker »

simple10 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that annual attrition rate is 6% according to the article. I hadn't considered that before. The buyouts could end up costing more than they save if the only people who take it were the ones already planning on leaving. But maybe the argument is if enough people take it before the March budget deadline, then each departments budget can be proportionately reduced in the next cycle. Does anyone know the…

Move fast and break things mentality over the boring strategy of letting a hiring freeze slowly work. It’s also psychologically challenging the people that stay to “admit” they can’t get a job in the private sector, which helps the Elon narrative. They want to make government employees feel bad.

Plus these people are unlikely to ever get paid. This is all operating outside of congress. If the institutions survive at all this could become a mess of expensive lawsuits and settlements. But I suppose their intention is to permanently cut Congress out of the picture.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#42

Post by Jtsummers »

remarkEon wrote: post #32
Shank wrote: post #15

I think the main issue for anyone wanting to take the offer is simply: this was never authorized by congress, so the money to pay people to September is questionable if it exists at best. Meanwhile, there's a government funding deadline on March 14, 2025. So there's a very real chance at this deal offering something closer to ~1 month of pay before it suddenly gets dropped due to budget negotiations. It would be an i…

Have the exact payment details been released? Because I understood it as "you will get paid same as always through September, you just don't have to show up to work". Maybe I'm misunderstanding, but that doesn't sound like a "buyout" in the traditional sense.

It is not a buyout. OPM has said that agencies can opt to put people who choose this on administrative leave (but they don't have to, they can keep the people working). So the effect is what the name is "deferred resignation", OPM pinky swears that you won't be cut before 30 September in a RIF or other actions if you take this offer and you'll get your biweekly pay as normal.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#43

Post by tootie »

sampton wrote: post #9

20k represents 1%. The target is 5-10%. The messaging is 100-200k federal layoff is coming.

They have separately promised $1T or even $2T in cuts and and laying off 200K won't even come close. Not to mention they are offering these as blanket buyouts seemingly without regard for job function so they will inevitably end up needing to hire back some percentage of roles unless (as I suspect) they intend to just stop doing a bunch of critical work.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#44

Post by skovati »

Molitor5901 wrote: post #22
bilekas wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Critics argue the offer is illegal, there's no real guarantee people will get paid out, and it's something Congress would need to authorize. Give then history of this particular admistration & business', I personally wouldn't be too confident in actually getting paid up to Sept.

[flagged]

Congress hasn't actually agreed on a FY2025 budget though right? We're just running on Continuing Resolutions currently. So the budget is actually subject to change when this CR runs out March 14th.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#45

Post by gramie »

tombert wrote: post #19
aurareturn wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Wow, talk about an amazing deal if you already happened to be planning on leaving... I'm guessing the vast majority who take the deal were already planning to leave? So we're wasting tax payer money giving them 8 months severance when it could have been 0.

I also suspect that there really isn't nearly as much "waste" here as Musk is alleging, so we are going to be forced to re-hire people, while still paying a ton of workers for 8 months of no work. This doesn't seem "efficient" to me, but "efficient" is a word that doesn't actually mean anything without context, which they don't provide.

Or even better, they can be brought back as contractors with vital skills and knowledge, at much higher cost!

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#46

Post by pixl97 »

varsketiz wrote: post #30
tombert wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I also suspect that there really isn't nearly as much "waste" here as Musk is alleging, so we are going to be forced to re-hire people, while still paying a ton of workers for 8 months of no work. This doesn't seem "efficient" to me, but "efficient" is a word that doesn't actually mean anything without context, which they don't provide.

Well, it depends on what goals Trump and Musk consider worthwhile. Just hypothetically, if they dont consider healthcare for all a worthwhile goal - possibly every dollar spent on Obamacare is waste from their perspective. I think they will find a lot of waste - question is if people in the USA will agree.

Well you can be sure the billionaire aligned media will only tell the part of the story in their best interest, so who knows how much of the actual story will be told to any portion of the population.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#47

Post by pixl97 »

derektank wrote: post #7
manbart wrote: post #2

Doubt it... You'd be a fool to think you'd actually get the money

There's a lot of people that, due to their living situation, wouldn't be able to comply with the new executive order banning work from home. If the choice is between being fired either way, I can see many people opting to take the possibility of a severance while they find alternative work

Finding new work is going to be freaking great with rapidly dropping consumer confidence and the random ass tariff changes scaring the hell out of businesses.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#48

Post by pixl97 »

varsketiz wrote: post #14
sampton wrote: post #9

20k represents 1%. The target is 5-10%. The messaging is 100-200k federal layoff is coming.

Since the turover rate per year is 6%, implemented hiring freeze would yield theese results.

1) You're assuming these leadership clowns are that smart

2) They are targeting particular employees more.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#49

Post by jhp123 »

simple10 wrote: post #13

It's interesting that annual attrition rate is 6% according to the article. I hadn't considered that before. The buyouts could end up costing more than they save if the only people who take it were the ones already planning on leaving. But maybe the argument is if enough people take it before the March budget deadline, then each departments budget can be proportionately reduced in the next cycle. Does anyone know the…

I think the messaging was intended to create a psychological effect rather than a budgetary one. By voluntarily giving up a benefit to stay with the federal government post-Musk takeover, employees may feel more committed to the new regime. IIRC Zappos used to offer people a payout to leave directly after hiring them, it was a similar signal of commitment.

Re: 20k federal workers take "buyout" so far, official says

#50

Post by csa »

Shank wrote: post #15

I think the main issue for anyone wanting to take the offer is simply: this was never authorized by congress, so the money to pay people to September is questionable if it exists at best. Meanwhile, there's a government funding deadline on March 14, 2025. So there's a very real chance at this deal offering something closer to ~1 month of pay before it suddenly gets dropped due to budget negotiations. It would be an i…

> this was never authorized by congress,

Correct.

> so the money to pay people to September is questionable if it exists at best

Incorrect.

The money is budgeted through September (end of federal FY). Things are currently only funded through March 15 (CRs and whatnot). The money is or will be there. Historically, even if there is a furlough, this money is backfilled and folks are paid. Note that there will probably be riots if lengthy furloughed folks don’t get back pay.

> So there's a very real chance at this deal offering something closer to ~1 month of pay before it suddenly gets dropped due to budget negotiations.

Correct.

The speculation is that:

1. The “resign” folks will be put on admin leave in March 1 (or earlier).

2. Budget impasse in mid-March. Furlough ensues.

3. Folks on admin leave just end up getting cut, or not paid, and/or not back paid due to peculiarities of admin leave.

> It would be an incredibly generous and nice buyout package, but obviously if it gets torn up after a month it's not that great of a deal.

I think it’s above average, but not “incredibly generous”. People get $25k VSIP and VERA offers all the time. This may not seem like a lot, but many fed employees live in low COL areas and/or earn relatively low wages.

The best parts of the package, assuming they deliver, would be things like insurance (for non-retirees) and possibly TSP contributions and matching (if those are allowed).

If they want the numbers they say that they want, I think something near this level of package is necessary.

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