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Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

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41–50 of 171 posts

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#41

wow "when the United States is a service and information economy; when awesome technological powers are in the hands of a very few, and no one representing the public interest can even grasp the issues"

On the other hand, people losing the ability to think critically, being concerned at power being concentrated amongst the few and thinking the next generation is more ignorant are perennial concerns since forever.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#42
post #30

Americans may not think of themselves as an “empire,” but much of the world does. The average age of empires, according to a specialist on the subject, the late Sir John Bagot Glubb, is 250 years. After that, empires always die, often slowly but overwhelmingly from overreaching in the search for power. the US is 249 years old.

Uh — Roman Empire lasted in part something like 1500 years and imperial China around 2100 years.

Average implies that it’s not a hard and fast rule they die at that particular point — as the following sentence implies.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#43
Another succinct view from roughly the same point in history that I return to every now and then is Deleuze's Postscript.

"It’s a capitalism of higher-order production. It no longer buys raw materials and no longer sells the finished products: it buys the finished products or assembles parts. What it wants to sell is services and what it wants to buy is stocks. This is no longer a capitalism for production but for the product, which is to say, for being sold or marketed."

'The conquests of the market are made by grabbing control and no longer by disciplinary training, by fixing the exchange rate much more than by lowering costs, by transformation of the product more than by specialization of production. Corruption thereby gains a new power. Marketing has become the center or the “soul” of the corporation. We are taught that corporations have a soul, which is the most terrifying news in the world. The operation of markets is now the instrument of social control and forms the impudent breed of our masters.'

"There is no need to fear or hope, but only to look for new weapons."

https://theanarchistlibrary.org/library/gilles-deleuze-posts...

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#44
post #18

From a geopolitical perspective, the real concern isn’t just whether America is in decline, but whether we are witnessing a broader cycle of decline across Western civilization, or even globally. While competition between nations is important, it isn’t enough on its own. What we truly need is a world where the average person has more viable options, economically, politically, and technologically. If our current syste…

> The focus should be on creating new pathways for individual prosperity rather than just shifting power between competing states. I'd argue that the focus should be on creating prosperous communities, of mutual benefit to their individual members. But maybe that's just a "pathway" to individual prosperity.

Communities should exist because they benefit people, who in turn should support the continuation of something that benefits them.

But people don’t exist for the benefit of communities.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#45
post #30

Americans may not think of themselves as an “empire,” but much of the world does. The average age of empires, according to a specialist on the subject, the late Sir John Bagot Glubb, is 250 years. After that, empires always die, often slowly but overwhelmingly from overreaching in the search for power. the US is 249 years old.

Uh — Roman Empire lasted in part something like 1500 years and imperial China around 2100 years. Average implies that it’s not a hard and fast rule they die at that particular point — as the following sentence implies.

That's true, but those empires also had periods of traumatic decline and upheaval. Given if you grant those entities continuity for those time scales, there were absolutely periods in the middle where everything went to shit. Using a 1500 year number for Rome includes having half the empire drop off and die.

The more important idea isn't the 250 years (I agree), the idea is that it's not unreasonable to model aspects of America as an empire.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#46
post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think the people are capable, given the right environment. I think what destroys it is not letting people in Congress write laws in relative secrecy. When the most powerful, including the political parties, can monitor how every Congress person votes in committee, they can micro-manage and micro-terrorize them into doing what they want. Let them deliberate without us watching over their shoulders (because it's most…

Bernie said it best. Get money out of politics. Full stop.

I increasingly thing most of what Bernie says is right, it’s just too soon for such views to be mainstream successful.

But someone has to seed them

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#47
post #30

Americans may not think of themselves as an “empire,” but much of the world does. The average age of empires, according to a specialist on the subject, the late Sir John Bagot Glubb, is 250 years. After that, empires always die, often slowly but overwhelmingly from overreaching in the search for power. the US is 249 years old.

Thinking about, that's around 5 generations, if we calculate, with each generation having roughly 50 years of power and relevant impact. So we have the first generation build the empire, the second solidifying it, and the next three upholding and slowly losing it. Interestingly, this mirrors how many rich families develop over time until they fall back into "poverty".

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#49

I think the only people denying the decline of the US are the same people that think the US can be as powerful and respected as it was in the 50s, i.e. not the most well informed crowd. It really is crazy to see the way the US is going. I remember reading every time in history an emerging superpower was replacing a declining power, the declining power got antsy and shot first, leading to them getting whooped by the e…

The latter is called Thucydides Trap.

Re: Carl Sagan Predicts the Decline of America (1995)

#50
post #5

"Nah, we'll rise again like some mythical bird," said a voice in Arizona.

Oh God.

Don’t say that. Nothing says “thoroughly defeated” quite as well as people lacking in self-awareness running around shouting, “The South shall rise again!”.

Let’s just put our heads down and come up with some ideas on how we can better operate in the newly leveling global context.

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