Anthropic Chief Says AI Could Surpass 'Almost All Humans ' Shortly After 2027

Post by dutchbookmaker » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 3:28 AM UTC

yladiz wrote: post #17

shalabajser wrote: post #2

This is our future: short term growth in economy and stock markets followed by massive layoffs followed by economic crash followed by societal collapse. If you think this is all BS and you will be always smarter than any machine, realize that raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years. AI seems to follow the same growth. If you think you are safe, read what Geoffrey Hinton, one of the fathers of ML, said about…

> raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years Good thing that the number of neurons in our brains are so many orders of magnitude larger than this that it doesn't matter. I think what you're getting at is that in the next few years we're going to have AGI, which will eventually cause societal collapse. Under that assumption, while all of the AGI arguments are pretty poor, computing power increases over time is…

Post by walterbell » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 3:49 AM UTC

rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #40

walterbell wrote: post #38

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> [nukes] mass use Modern arsenals include a range of targetable weapons. Hopefully the "strategies" of would-be predators are not based on AI hallucinations.

It's really helpful for discussion if you've read the article the thread is based on btw.

  [If] we make good enough AI systems

Post by Gud » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 4:59 AM UTC

dutchbookmaker wrote: post #42

yladiz wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years Good thing that the number of neurons in our brains are so many orders of magnitude larger than this that it doesn't matter. I think what you're getting at is that in the next few years we're going to have AGI, which will eventually cause societal collapse. Under that assumption, while all of the AGI arguments are pretty poor, computing power increases over time is…

What also gets left out of this is the wage equilibrium of millions of out of work humans undercutting robots for factory work. It is hardly impossible there are remote white color workers at 30 right now who have to get a 6am-3pm/3pm-11pm/11pm-6am factory job at 50. It is such a miserable thought I think the idea of societal collapse is more comforting.

Post by ahartmetz » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 7:45 AM UTC

shalabajser wrote: post #35

ahartmetz wrote: post #5

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>raw computing power grows by 10^6 every ~25 years That is really not true anymore unless there will be a new technology that can do much better than silicon electronics. Doesn't mean that were safe, but it's not that clear. Edit: to expand, a single transistor is made of a pretty pedestrian number of atoms these days. The gate pitch of TSMC "3 nm" is about 40 nm (not all of which is transistor) and silicon atoms are…

Your point is true but it is too narrow. A similar argument was bandied about regarding the CPU clock which hit a wall which was defeated with multi-cores and parallelization. The atom wall you are talking about is crushed with 3D semiconductors (hybrid bonding, wafer to wafer..., HBM), wafer scale CPUs like Cerebras, larger clusters, faster networking... Incidentally, massive parallelization suits AI just fine. Do y…

Post by Havoc » Thu, Jan 23, 2025, 11:17 AM UTC

rUsHeYaFuBu wrote: post #14

Havoc wrote: post #9

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Social nets are a thing. Not particularly worried about anyone dying off. At least in mid to rich countries. Bigger concern in those to me is what sort of existence it’ll be. State keeps you alive sure but I’d like to do a bit more than that

Why guarantee the social safety nets? There's no benefit for those in power to keep them and we already let those in the U.S. without means die. Why should the case be different here?