41–50 of 190 posts
But this is the whole point of VC investing. It is not normal distribution investing.
Feels too self-congratulatory when he claims to be correct about self driving in the Waymo case. The bar he set is so broad and ambiguous, that probably anything Waymo did, would not qualify as self driving to him. So he think humans are intervening once every 1-2 miles to train the Waymo, we’re not even sure if that is true, I heard from friends that it was 100+ miles but let us say Waymo comes out and says it is 10…
DeepMind RL/MCTS can succeed in fairly open-ended settings like StarCraft and shit.
Brain/DeepMind still knocks hard. They under-invested in LLMs and remain kind of half-hearted around it because they think it’s a dumbass sideshow because it is a dumbass sideshow.
They train on TPU which costs less than chips made of Rhodium like a rapper’s sunglasses, they fixed the structural limits in TF2 and PyTorch via the Jax ecosystem.
If I ever get interested in making some money again Google is the only FAANG outfit I’d look at.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Your objection to him claiming a win on self driving is that you think that we can still define cars as self driving even when humans are operating them? Ok I disagree. If humans are operating them then they simply are not self driving by any sensible definition.
Yeah, I think semi-autonomous vehicles are a huge milestone and should be celebrated but the jump from semi-autonomous to fully-autonomous will, I think, feel noticeably different. It will be a moment future generations have trouble imagining a world where drunk or tired driving was ever even an issue.
Feels too self-congratulatory when he claims to be correct about self driving in the Waymo case. The bar he set is so broad and ambiguous, that probably anything Waymo did, would not qualify as self driving to him. So he think humans are intervening once every 1-2 miles to train the Waymo, we’re not even sure if that is true, I heard from friends that it was 100+ miles but let us say Waymo comes out and says it is 10…
Your objection to him claiming a win on self driving is that you think that we can still define cars as self driving even when humans are operating them? Ok I disagree. If humans are operating them then they simply are not self driving by any sensible definition.
Feels too self-congratulatory when he claims to be correct about self driving in the Waymo case. The bar he set is so broad and ambiguous, that probably anything Waymo did, would not qualify as self driving to him. So he think humans are intervening once every 1-2 miles to train the Waymo, we’re not even sure if that is true, I heard from friends that it was 100+ miles but let us say Waymo comes out and says it is 10…
Waymo cars can drive. Everything from the (limited) public literature to riding them personally has me totally persuaded that they can drive. DeepMind RL/MCTS can succeed in fairly open-ended settings like StarCraft and shit. Brain/DeepMind still knocks hard. They under-invested in LLMs and remain kind of half-hearted around it because they think it’s a dumbass sideshow because it is a dumbass sideshow. They train on…
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Waymo cars can drive. Everything from the (limited) public literature to riding them personally has me totally persuaded that they can drive. DeepMind RL/MCTS can succeed in fairly open-ended settings like StarCraft and shit. Brain/DeepMind still knocks hard. They under-invested in LLMs and remain kind of half-hearted around it because they think it’s a dumbass sideshow because it is a dumbass sideshow. They train on…
I can tell you as someone that crosses paths almost everyday with a Waymo car, they absolutely due work. I would describe their driving behavior as very safe and overly cautious. I’m far more concerned of humans behind the wheel.
It’s like being in the back seat of Nikki Lauda’s car.
Earlier quoted context omitted.
Solid state batteries. Prototypes work, but high-volume manufacturing doesn't work yet. The major battery manufacturers are all trying to get this to production. Early versions will probably be expensive. Maybe a 2x improvement in kwh/kg. Much less risk of fire or thermal runaway. Charging in < 10 mins.
The one thing I'm curious about with solid state batteries is if there's a path towards incremental improvements in power density like we've seen with lithium batteries? It would be unfortunate if we get solid state batteries that have the great features that you describe but they're limited to 2x or so power density. Twice the power density opens a lot of doors for technology improvements and innovation but it's sti…
There are, of course, small startups promising usable lithium-air batteries Real Soon Now.[2]
[1] https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lithium%E2%80%93air_battery
> That being said, we are not on the verge of replacing and eliminating humans in either white collar jobs or blue collar jobs. Tell that to someone laid off when replaced by some "AI" system. > Waymo not autonomous enough It's not clear how often Waymo cars need remote attention, but it's not every 1-2 miles. Customers would notice the vehicle being stopped and stuck during the wait for customer service. There are m…
What is the silver bullet for battery tech?
1. Solid state batteries. Likely to be expensive, but promise better energy density.
2. Some really good grid storage battery. Likely made with iron or molten salt or something like that. Dirt cheap, but horrible energy density.
3. Continued Lithium ion battery improvements, e.g. cheaper, more durable etc.
It seems to me we’re at the very least close to this, unless you hold unproven beliefs about grey matter vs silicon.