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A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

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Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#41

Is there any possible future, where Waymo is NOT one of the major players in self driving software?

Maybe Elon Musk will yield enough power in the US government to influence safety policies in such a way that is harmful to waymo. It doesn't seem like conflict of interest is bothering him much.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#42
post #34
post #25

It seems like they compared apples to apples. Which make that an exciting result! “The benchmark was calibrated using both mileage (driving exposure) and residence zip-code (geographic region). Specifically, only the claims associated with vehicles registered to addresses (i.e., where the insured resides) within Waymo’s operating zip codes in San Francisco, the Phoenix metropolitan region, Los Angeles, and Austin wer…

> It seems like they compared apples to apples. Which make that an exciting result! I'd want to compare to our best drivers (e.g. ambulance drivers), not average drivers.

Why? We aren't looking at introducing autonomous ambulances any time soon.

They should be compared to taxi/Uber/Lyft drivers that is what is being replaced by this and as such where the net harm increase or reduction will occur.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#43
Is it possible to compare this to humans in another way? Could it be said that Waymo avoids 95% of the accidents that we regularly get in, and does have 3% of accidents that we manage to avoid. I think a major hurdle to mainstream acceptance is the errors that robots make, and a real mind doesn't.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#44
post #3

So one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself".

Yes, and of course you must pay because the autopilot doesn't work when there's snow or rain or sun on the horizon or it's too dark, or the volcano near you is throwing ash and there's wind so you're now in a sandstorm, or wind is carrying sand from the sahara all over the mediterranean to you.

(all of these regularly happen all in the same place)

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#46

Good to see studies of incidents in comparison to human drivers. Historically what I have seen is 'self-driving car crashes into X, which seems to be concentrating exclusively on outliers to prove a point.

Funny enough, when drivers hit people that’s _also_ reported as “car crashes in to x”

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#47
post #16

How did Waymo do this? As far as I know, replacing drivers with an AI was the goal of ever-money-losing Uber and Lyft, however, Waymo managed to get to this much sooner while having less funds.

Not sure about the "less funds" bit, but Google started funding self driving cars in 2009. The continuous investment in tech is just now starting to make the dream feasible - as far as I know self driving cars were never more than a side project for Uber and Lyft.

With Cruise gone now there's basically just Waymo, Zoox, and Tesla (bit controversial) that are the names thrown around when talking about self driving market share, and out of those only Waymo has a functional service.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#49
post #20
post #3

So one day my car insurance company will tell me: "you have to pay us more because you are driving yourself".

I can already see the sign "No manual driving allowed" at the entrance of highways.

Don't threaten me with a good time.

Re: A comparison to Waymo’s auto liability insurance claims at 25M miles

#50
post #16

How did Waymo do this? As far as I know, replacing drivers with an AI was the goal of ever-money-losing Uber and Lyft, however, Waymo managed to get to this much sooner while having less funds.

Google spent a lot of time and money attracting people who want to work on general hard problems rather than experts in specific domains. Maybe tasking a group of people like that is more likely to succeed in inventing something than building a team around the domain itself, especially in a space that has a lot of unknowns.
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