Multiply your original estimate by 3, works most of the time
I've heard "multiply by 2, use next time unit" rule. So 1 hour -> 2 days, 2 weeks -> 4 months, etc..
When did estimates turn into deadlines?
41–50 of 237 posts
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#42Multiply your original estimate by 3, works most of the time
I prefer pi myself. For the sort of false precision that managers love.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#43> Can you imagine if the insurance company started arguing with the repair shop, asking them—no—telling them that they would only pay the $18,000 and not the additional $20,000 because that was the original estimate? Well yeah, because there's not an inherent power imbalance like there is in employment. Part of this imbalance results in the ability for managers to employ Taylorization upon their directs. The majority…
Also, insurance does do stuff like that.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#44Estimates are tricky because different manager roles and different personalities bias toward totally different/incompatible concepts of what an estimate actually means. The author's article is conflating realistic and pessimistic estimates:
- Realistic e.g. tech managers and people who favors agile/lean/XP/etc.
- Optimistic e.g. sales managers and people who want to promote.
- Pessimistic e.g. risk managers and people who need firm deadlines.
- Equilabristic e.g. project managers and people doing critical chain
The abbreviation is ROPE, and it turns out to work really well in practice to cover all four bases. My notes are below. Constructive criticism welcome.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#45I've gone through times when management would treat estimates as deadlines, and were deaf to any sort of reason about why it could be otherwise, like the usual thing of them changing the specification repeatedly. So when those times have occurred I've (we've more accurately) adopted what I refer to the "deer in the headlights" response to just about anything non-trivial. "Hoo boy, that could be doozy. I think someone…
In my experience, super large estimates don’t make you look good in the long run, they make you look incompetent. The engineers who are most likely to be under-performers are also those who give super inflated estimates for simple tasks.
Maybe this is a good strategy for dealing with people who aren’t going to judge you for delivering slowly, or for managers who don’t know what the fuck is going on. For managers who do, they will see right through this.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#46I've gone through times when management would treat estimates as deadlines, and were deaf to any sort of reason about why it could be otherwise, like the usual thing of them changing the specification repeatedly. So when those times have occurred I've (we've more accurately) adopted what I refer to the "deer in the headlights" response to just about anything non-trivial. "Hoo boy, that could be doozy. I think someone…
Always reminds me of this
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#47"Can you imagine if the insurance company started arguing with the repair shop, asking them—no—telling them that they would only pay the $18,000 and not the additional $20,000 because that was the original estimate? Does that sound ridiculous to you? It does to me, too. Thank heavens, reality does not operate like this." That happens all the time with insurance. I'm surprised at the confident tone in "reality does no…
It depends on whether we're talking about estimates or negotiated rates . In the latter (also called "preferred rates" for auto insurance) there's a blanket agreement that all work of a certain type is to be billed at a fixed, negotiated rate. That is VERY different from a binding estimate, which typically means a one-off estimate for a specific job where the estimator takes the risk and promises to complete the work…
There's also whether they will pay at all for some things. They have some discretion to claim some damage was existing, or unrelated to the claim, caused by the repair shop, not normally covered, etc. Or where they won't pay for OEM parts if some substitute is available. There's lots of ways they can shuffle around.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#48I've gone through times when management would treat estimates as deadlines, and were deaf to any sort of reason about why it could be otherwise, like the usual thing of them changing the specification repeatedly. So when those times have occurred I've (we've more accurately) adopted what I refer to the "deer in the headlights" response to just about anything non-trivial. "Hoo boy, that could be doozy. I think someone…
In my experience, super large estimates don’t make you look good in the long run, they make you look incompetent. The engineers who are most likely to be under-performers are also those who give super inflated estimates for simple tasks. Maybe this is a good strategy for dealing with people who aren’t going to judge you for delivering slowly, or for managers who don’t know what the fuck is going on. For managers who…
It is however a logical follow up of the managers behaviour. If they try to hold the estimate as deadline, the estimate will be larger next time. If manager doesn't see this coming, the manager needs to work on some people skills.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#49Estimates are tricky because different manager roles and different personalities bias toward totally different/incompatible concepts of what an estimate actually means. The author's article is conflating realistic and pessimistic estimates: - Realistic e.g. tech managers and people who favors agile/lean/XP/etc. - Optimistic e.g. sales managers and people who want to promote. - Pessimistic e.g. risk managers and peopl…
Sounds like they need curves (probability distributions), not point estimates.
Re: When did estimates turn into deadlines?
#50I've gone through times when management would treat estimates as deadlines, and were deaf to any sort of reason about why it could be otherwise, like the usual thing of them changing the specification repeatedly. So when those times have occurred I've (we've more accurately) adopted what I refer to the "deer in the headlights" response to just about anything non-trivial. "Hoo boy, that could be doozy. I think someone…
In my experience, super large estimates don’t make you look good in the long run, they make you look incompetent. The engineers who are most likely to be under-performers are also those who give super inflated estimates for simple tasks. Maybe this is a good strategy for dealing with people who aren’t going to judge you for delivering slowly, or for managers who don’t know what the fuck is going on. For managers who…
So many bold claims in this comment and little to no justification.
For what it's worth I've seen pretty much the opposite. I don't know about competent vs. incompetent engineers. But when it comes to experience, I've seen the inexperienced ones giving super low estimates and the experienced people giving larger estimates.