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The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

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Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Kia sells quite a few cars that start at $20k, like the Soul and Forte

Quite a few $20k ish , though only the Forte actually making it under that. Forte LX starting at $19,900. Of course that's without without the $1,155 "destination" fee, so even the Forte really starts at $21,145. But considering inflation, $21k isn't a bad price.

We need laws that ban these junk fees. Any advertised price should be one I can get when I walk in.

I cannot get the car without registration. I cannot get the car without 'destination' fee.

Bake it into the price.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the EV car market is lacking demand There is scant evidence for this. Every time prices improve, sales surge. Sounds like the demand is there, but price matters. As it always has.

I guess I don’t understand the advantage of EVs really. Isn’t a plug in hybrid the best option? You can do everyday short trips on battery but also have the gas engine for longer trips. Sure it is more complicated but Toyota has shown that you can make this super reliable.

The biggest downside of a plugin hybrid is the complexity and therefore higher service costs, likely shorter lifetime etc. You have all the maintenance requirements of a regular ICE vehicle and an electric motor + battery on top of that. Also the full electric range is likely much lower than an electric only vehicle so running costs would be higher.

Some EVs have full charge range that's not much less than a full tank of gas on an ICE at this point - the range is really a non issue for a lot of people.

I drive an EV with a comparably low range (~130 miles) and I can still count on one hand the number of times I've needed to drive further than that in one trip - on those occasions other than my lunch/dinner stop being limited to places with a charging station nothing really changed compared to when I drove an ICE. The rest of the time I get to plug it in in my garage overnight instead of having to stop at petrol stations, which is a nice albeit minor convenience increase.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#43
post #2

https://archive.ph/9oIT4 I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ That's a nitpick though. All in all,…

If even ICE cars are now super expensive, why isn’t this a screaming opportunity for some auto manufacturer to target the low end of the market? I’ve never spent more than 20k for a car. With prices like this, I’m just going to keep my old one as long as I can.

There's no way to sell a good, cheap car without also cannibalizing your high margin sales and the dealers wouldn't want to sell it anyway. The vast majority of vehicle cost goes to:

1) amortizing the assembly line and upfront platform design costs

2) the raw materials of the basic car components, e.g. power train, chassis, and body

3) getting the car into consumer hands (distribution fees, taxes, advertising, dealership margin, etc).

Everything else like labor and upgraded trims works out to a relatively small percentage of the overall price, often under 20%.

Since you can't make enough impact by cutting amenities, you have to cut one of the listed things. You mostly can't build things more efficiently than major manufacturers do (though Tesla is quite good here), so that's out. You can't shave 50% off the basic materials costs because you run into basic FMVSS issues. Kia's strategy is to get as close to this line as they can though. That means you need to cut from the third category. No company wants don't want to cut their own margin, so that's out. Manufacturers can't work around the dealers by law, so they need to keep some dealer margin. Manufacturers can't stop advertising because the advertising department has significant political power and can get anyone proposing that fired. Manufacturers can't avoid taxes for consumers either.

The only real paths to cheaper cars involve opening the market to competitors that aren't limited like this, for instance foreign companies that don't need dealers and are okay accepting lower margins and not advertising.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#44
post #2

https://archive.ph/9oIT4 I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ That's a nitpick though. All in all,…

> the EV car market is lacking demand There is scant evidence for this. Every time prices improve, sales surge. Sounds like the demand is there, but price matters. As it always has.

Because demand isn't the issue. The issue is a new car that isn't a budget brand is increasingly a luxury option in the United States, because, and say it with me...

Wages have been stagnant in the United States for nearly 50 years.

Every economic stat right now points to this as the core issue. Consumers are squeezed more on every last good and service, tons of services are now only available via subscriptions which inherently cost more, and despite the economy supposedly (and, actually) booming in a lot of ways, that doesn't hardly at all make it's way down to the workers either via higher wages, or via cheaper products.

This is a complicated situation that doesn't lend itself well to comments but a number of the bigger datapoints include an employment market that favored employers for the majority of the time since the 70's, the ongoing slandering not to mention outright interference on the part of employers against labor organizing, "inflation" that when you scratch the surface is just companies charging more because they can, the ongoing consolidation of enterprise resulting in monolithic companies that own dozens of brands of the same product, none of which truly compete on price, on and on and on.

There are a ton of good reasons for Americans to be broke, and a number of prominent economists have been ringing alarm bells for decades now that all of these things coming together is going to stall the economy cold and send us into the... by my count, fourth once-in-a-lifetime economic crisis I've experienced.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> the EV car market is lacking demand There is scant evidence for this. Every time prices improve, sales surge. Sounds like the demand is there, but price matters. As it always has.

I guess I don’t understand the advantage of EVs really. Isn’t a plug in hybrid the best option? You can do everyday short trips on battery but also have the gas engine for longer trips. Sure it is more complicated but Toyota has shown that you can make this super reliable.

I'm 100% with you.

Dodge has the 2025 ramcharger which has amazing specs! 690 mile range, 14,000lb towing capacity, 663 hp, etc. etc.

I've got reservations about dodge, and reservations about the first year of the model from any manufactuerer. Otherwise, I'd gladly shell out 70k+ and my left nut to get one.

I really wish more manufacturers would go this direction. I've got no interest in 100% EV, because I do things with my truck that simply are not feasible with any EV model, mostly due to range. The problem is, I do just enough truck stuff with really tough requirements that I don't want a non-truck without serious range. Yet, I still go to work in an office a few days a week and would love to use plug-in charge to do so.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#46
post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I guess I don’t understand the advantage of EVs really. Isn’t a plug in hybrid the best option? You can do everyday short trips on battery but also have the gas engine for longer trips. Sure it is more complicated but Toyota has shown that you can make this super reliable.

An advantage of a pure EV over a hybrid is that you don’t have the maintenance liability of the combustion engine, cooling system, and transmission.

And brakes. My brake pads rarely touch my rotors.

Not only does this (and the things you pointed out) reduce the cost of maintenance, it saves on trips to get them done, and the headaches of the pressure most put on you to get things done you don’t need, just so they can make even more money off of you.

Also, EVs on the highway (when hybrids are using the ICE) are much quieter, and have more torque.

The only downsides I have noticed are:

- Higher up front cost (though I don’t think hybrids are much cheaper)

- Heavier = more frequent tire changes (again, not sure hybrids are much better)

- Range for long road trips, resulting in having to pause for long charges, and having to plan your route in advance (definitely not a problem for hybrids)

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#47
The only EV I'm even interested in is an Aptera. They're building a new class of vehicle that takes advantage of the affordances of full electric. I want a small efficient car that can go long distances and nobody else is building anything like that. Even US capital markets don't understand the appeal of this class of vehicle, but luckily they were able to fill their funding in global capital markets. I'm pretty pessimistic about US EVs, but Aptera gives me a little hope.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#48
post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If even ICE cars are now super expensive, why isn’t this a screaming opportunity for some auto manufacturer to target the low end of the market? I’ve never spent more than 20k for a car. With prices like this, I’m just going to keep my old one as long as I can.

I bring you https://www.carexpert.com.au/car-news/toyota-hilux-champ-lau... You can't have it because of existing tarrifs.

Man this thing is awesome. One of my dream cars was always a 90s hilux - I got so disappointed when they started taking design cues from giant American trucks and making them bigger. Single cab with maximized tray space is the most practical option if you actually need to use it as a ute.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#49
post #24

The Chinese are going to clean this market up. The British made the same mistake back in the day with motorcycles. "Who cares about the market for 125 cc machines?" they said. The Japanese did, and now they have the market, the British used to have, for luxury and high powered motor cycles. As well as most of the 125cc market

Honestly that analogy feels like a stretch. I like my Nortons, BSAs and Triumphs, but the Japanese honestly just built better bikes at the end of the day (que joke about Lucas electrics and all of the other shit that seems to go wrong on British vehicles of that era). The British built really beautiful bikes and sports cars, but their reliability and general aggravation of ownership was kind of abhorrent. A good Yamaha, Suzuki, Honda, etc. even from that era, I've come to expect will be cheaper to maintain, not come with half a dozen headaches out of the box, and will "Just Run" when you turn the key.

I've yet to see good evidence that the Chinese cars are actually built in a way that they're more reliable or a better value than counterparts from other countries, they're just cheaper.

Re: The withering dream of a cheap American electric car

#50
post #2

https://archive.ph/9oIT4 I wish it would have adjusted for inflation. One quote: "The average transaction price for a new vehicle sold in the U.S. last month was $48,623, according to Kelley Blue Book, roughly $10,000 higher than in 2019, before the pandemic." However, about 9200 euros of that is due to inflation according to this calculator: https://www.usinflationcalculator.com/ That's a nitpick though. All in all,…

If even ICE cars are now super expensive, why isn’t this a screaming opportunity for some auto manufacturer to target the low end of the market? I’ve never spent more than 20k for a car. With prices like this, I’m just going to keep my old one as long as I can.

>why isn’t this a screaming opportunity

with the American consumer buying 15M cars a year at those average $50K there isn't an opportunity for the low end. And if such market really appears - i.e. if the American consumer would hit hard economic patch and would really need cheap car - it will be at any moment filled by cheap Chinese EVs.

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