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OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

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Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#41

Post by smgit »

benopal64 wrote: post #24

I am not sure how these large companies think they will reach "greater-than-human" intelligence any time soon if they do not create systems that financially incentivize people to sell their knowledge labor (unstable contracting gigs are not attractive). Where do these large "AI" companies think the mass amounts of data used to train these models come from? People! The most powerful and compact complex systems in exis…

Most People have knowledge handed to them. Very few are creators of new knowledge. Explore-Exploit tradeoff applies.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#42

Post by non- »

Honestly could use a breather from the recent rate of progress. We are just barely figuring out how to interact with the models we have now. I'd bet there are at least 100 billion-dollar startups that will be built even if these labs stopped releasing new models tomorrow.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#44

Post by riku_iki »

bad_haircut72 wrote: post #30

Im no Alan Turing but I have my own definition for AGI - when I come home one day and there's a hole under my sink with a note "Mum and Dad, I love you but I cant stand this life any more, Im running away to be a smoke machine in Hollywood - the dishwasher"

Why do you focus on physical work task, and not knowledge tasks, on some of which AI is good/better than many humans?

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#45

Post by sharemywin »

littlestymaar wrote: post #35
jedberg wrote: post #20

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Whether self awareness is a requirement for AGI definitely gets more into the Philosophy department than the Computer Science department. I'm not sure everyone even agrees on what AGI is, but a common test is "can it do what humans can". For example, in this article it says it can't do coding exercises outside the training set. That would definitely be on the "AGI checklist". Basically doing anything that is outside…

> Whether self awareness is a requirement for AGI definitely gets more into the Philosophy department than the Computer Science department. Depends on how you define “self awareness” but knowing that it doesn't know something instead of hallucinating a plausible-but-wrong is already self awareness of some kind. And it's both highly valuable and beyond current tech's capability.

This is an interesting paper about hallucinations.

https://openai.com/index/introducing-simpleqa/

especially this section Using SimpleQA to measure the calibration of large language models

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#46

Post by Avshalom »

AlwaysRock wrote: post #17
irrational wrote: post #13

> The AGI bubble is bursting a little bit I'm surprised that any of these companies consider what they are working on to be Artificial General Intelligences. I'm probably wrong, but my impression was AGI meant the AI is self aware like a human. An LLM hardly seems like something that will lead to self-awareness.

I think your definition is off from what most people would define AGI as. Generally, it means being able to think and reason at a human level for a multitude/all tasks or jobs. "Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) refers to a theoretical form of artificial intelligence that possesses the ability to understand, learn, and apply knowledge across a wide range of tasks at a level comparable to that of a human being." A…

Altman is marketing, he "certainly means" whatever he thinks his audience will buy.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#47

Post by iandanforth »

A few important things to remember here:

The best engineering minds have been focused on scaling transformer pre and post training for the last three years because they had good reason to believe it would work, and it has up until now.

Progress has been measured against benchmarks which are / were largely solvable with scale.

There is another emerging paradigm which is still small(er) scale but showing remarkable results. That's full multi-modal training with embodied agents (aka robots). 1x, Figure, Physical Intelligence, Tesla are all making rapid progress on functionality which is definitely beyond frontier LLMs because it is distinctly different.

OpenAI/Google/Anthropic are not ignorant of this trend and are also reviving or investing in robots or robot-like research.

So while Orion and Claude 3.5 opus may not be another shocking giant leap forward, that does not mean that there arn't giant shocking leaps forward coming from slightly different directions.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#48

Post by SpicyLemonZest »

thousand_nights wrote: post #15

not long ago these people would have you believe that a next word predictor trained on reddit posts would somehow lead to artificial general superintelligence

I don't understand why you'd be so dismissive about this. It's looking less likely that it'll end up happening, but is it any less believable than getting general intelligence by training a blob of meat?

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#49

Post by tartoran »

j_maffe wrote: post #36
xanderlewis wrote: post #18

Earlier quoted context omitted.

If by agents you mean systems comprised of individual (perhaps LLM-powered) agents interacting with each other, probably not. I get the vague impression that so far researchers haven’t found any advantage to such systems — anything you can do with a group of AI agents can be emulated with a single one. It’s like chaining up perceptrons hoping to get more expressive power for free.

> I get the vague impression that so far researchers haven’t found any advantage to such systems — anything you can do with a group of AI agents can be emulated with a single one. It’s like chaining up perceptrons hoping to get more expressive power for free. Emergence happens when many elements interact in a system. Brains are literally a bunch of neurons in a complex network. Also research is already showing promis…

That's wishful thinking at best. Throw it all in a bucket and it will get infected with being and life.

Re: OpenAI, Google and Anthropic are struggling to build more advanced AI

#50

Post by tartoran »

aaroninsf wrote: post #37

It's easy to be snarky at ill-informed and hyperbolic takes, but it's also pretty clear that large multi-modal models trained with the data we already have, are going to eventually give us AGI. IMO this will require not just much more expansive multi-modal training, but also novel architecture, specifically, recurrent approaches; plus a well-known set of capabilities most systems don't currently have, e.g. the integr…

> pretty clear

Pretty clear?

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