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Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

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Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#41

Post by dudeism_est_03 »

diminish wrote: post #3

We need >2000 km ranges in one charge of electric vehicles for widespread adoption.

I personally doubt very much that this range is required. Charging infrastructure is definitely a lot more important.

I still drive a diesel because I drive across Europe a lot. My usual journey is 700km, which I can do with ca. 40L. The total my 65L tank would give me is about 1000km depending on the conditions. Anyway, those 700km take about 8 hours with a couple of short stops. If I were to drive 2000km I would definitely need a long break in which I could easily charge. I am not really aware of any ICE having a greater range than that, never mind 2000Km. I’ve once driven the Plugin-Hybrid Kuga and it got very close to the diesel range. It almost made the entire 700km journey with the 40l petrol tank. But these long journeys only happen a few times a year and I think it would be silly to drive a huge battery around for the off chance I am driving across an entire continent.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#42

Post by amatecha »

AmericanChopper wrote: post #32
9dev wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People really need to get away from that notion electric vehicles need to be as similar as possible to ICE vehicles. Most people living in cities don’t ever require that range, because 99% of their rides will be constrained to less than 50 kilometers. And even on the countryside, few people need to drive such long stretches on a single charge. Keeping up this stoic desire to not having to change your habits around dr…

If you want people to choose one thing, then you want it to be better than or at least as good as the alternatives. The idea that EVs need to be comparable to ICE vehicles isn’t just some silly argument, it’s literally the choice that consumers are faced with if they want to buy a car. Even if longer range travel is only 1% of what consumers will do with their car (which I’m sure is a number you just made up), why wo…

Yeah, and so far EVs almost universally have a couple "no-go" bullet points for me: touch screen controls, and always-online. Either of those just instantly excludes such a vehicle from my consideration. Uhh, unsurprisingly, I have no clue what I'm going to do when my current vehicle becomes unusable! Replace it with another old one, I guess?! >_<

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#43

Post by KingOfCoders »

speedgoose wrote: post #26
mulperi wrote: post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

Battery swapping stations looks a lot more expensive and failure prone compared to fast chargers. I think 250kW flat charging curves are almost as convenient. Go to pee and scroll HN for one minute and voilà.

"fast chargers."

Or contact less, constant charging at traffic lights, during parking, on the highway.

I'm sure there are people in 1900 who said, "Cars will never work, because I need to by petroleum in a pharmacy!" ignoring how technology will progress. If you had told them, there will be a "gas station" everywhere, those people would have called you crazy.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#44

Post by closewith »

speedgoose wrote: post #23
hackernewds wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Not really. if your choice is a better ICE car at the same price point, why get an EV that has to stop intermittently and has failure modes like broken chargers. It has to be as good. And better

Thankfully they are often better. 95% of new car sales are EVs in my area. It took a few years to get there, people don't necessarily know immediately what they like best. https://elbilstatistikk.no/

Norway is an absolute outlier, driven exclusively by tax incentives.

In the rest of the EEA, EVs sales are plummeting.

https://www.acea.auto/pc-registrations/new-car-registrations...

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#45

Post by KingOfCoders »

louwrentius wrote: post #39
mulperi wrote: post #16

We would need a standardized, replaceable battery pack that takes us 300-500 km. That would eliminate the risk of expensive battery service and make recharging instant at service station.

It’s a solution for a problem that won’t exist. Charing for 30 minutes isn’t a real issue after a long drive. Replacing individual battery modules will become cheap enough it will extend the life of battery packs enough. And once the whole battery needs replacing it will be ok financially.

In the not too distant future there will be contact less charging everywhere, at Walmart, at work, at home.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#46

Post by 9dev »

AmericanChopper wrote: post #32
9dev wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People really need to get away from that notion electric vehicles need to be as similar as possible to ICE vehicles. Most people living in cities don’t ever require that range, because 99% of their rides will be constrained to less than 50 kilometers. And even on the countryside, few people need to drive such long stretches on a single charge. Keeping up this stoic desire to not having to change your habits around dr…

If you want people to choose one thing, then you want it to be better than or at least as good as the alternatives. The idea that EVs need to be comparable to ICE vehicles isn’t just some silly argument, it’s literally the choice that consumers are faced with if they want to buy a car. Even if longer range travel is only 1% of what consumers will do with their car (which I’m sure is a number you just made up), why wo…

It’s definitely a hyperbole number I made up. The point is that the technology isn’t equal or better, but different. It has other constraints and capabilities, but pretending an engine is an engine as long as the hood is closed gets us in the current situation where car builders struggle to recreate ICEs, but electric, consumers are never satisfied because they have wrong expectations, and regulators don’t ensure the charging infrastructure that would actually required exists.

With an electric vehicle, you can get an extremely low-maintenance, easy to drive, fast accelerating, ecologically efficient car. That has its on merits. On the other hand, it has a lower range than an ICE engine, and is less reliable in cold weather.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#47

Post by defrost »

amatecha wrote: post #36
kyriakos wrote: post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

As an owner of an EV it took me the first 6 months to adapt. The concept is different and you need to adapt your mentality to it. When you use an ICE car you fill up once it goes under 20% When you drive an EV you leave home and it's always full and costs nothing (PV takes care of that). Most places I visit have chargers which means you charge while you do what you have to do be it restaurant, shopping mall, supermar…

How does that work when all cars are electric? Fighting with some guy at the grocery store for a charging port? I'm not trying to be inflammatory asking that, I genuinely wonder what the approach is supposed to be if suddenly everyone went and bought an electric car. I always hear that "you can charge all over the place" but I'll see like, two charging stalls in a giant parking lot. I wonder what the future looks lik…

> I wonder what the future looks like in that regard in, say, 5-10 years.

Likely, for one, a great deal more aluminium HVAC|DC cable laid in car parks to support charging; copper's kind of expensive and in short supply but is also a contender.

Might be smart to invest in any IPO's launched to raise capital for new proven economically feasible smelters processing infrastructure.

The hay to feed all those horses doesn't appear by magic, livery's the future m'lad.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#49

Post by louwrentius »

AmericanChopper wrote: post #32
9dev wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

People really need to get away from that notion electric vehicles need to be as similar as possible to ICE vehicles. Most people living in cities don’t ever require that range, because 99% of their rides will be constrained to less than 50 kilometers. And even on the countryside, few people need to drive such long stretches on a single charge. Keeping up this stoic desire to not having to change your habits around dr…

If you want people to choose one thing, then you want it to be better than or at least as good as the alternatives. The idea that EVs need to be comparable to ICE vehicles isn’t just some silly argument, it’s literally the choice that consumers are faced with if they want to buy a car. Even if longer range travel is only 1% of what consumers will do with their car (which I’m sure is a number you just made up), why wo…

I think it’s unreasonable for people to think everything has to be business as usual whereas the true cost of a galon of fuel should have been 50 dollars if we facor in the environmental cost.

I think I don’t like that people see consumption as a birthright, and pretend there aren’t any consequences.

Re: Electric vehicle battery prices are expected to fall almost 50% by 2026

#50

Post by mjevans »

KingOfCoders wrote: post #43
speedgoose wrote: post #26

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Battery swapping stations looks a lot more expensive and failure prone compared to fast chargers. I think 250kW flat charging curves are almost as convenient. Go to pee and scroll HN for one minute and voilà.

"fast chargers." Or contact less, constant charging at traffic lights, during parking, on the highway. I'm sure there are people in 1900 who said, "Cars will never work, because I need to by petroleum in a pharmacy!" ignoring how technology will progress. If you had told them, there will be a "gas station" everywhere, those people would have called you crazy.

As cool as an inductive charging strip would be, offhand, the inherent losses as well as practically microwaving the underside of the car, would probably both be too much.

Now, parking lots where a robot lifts an underside contact up if there's a match, that might just work.

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