this is an interesting problem but it’s more of a logic problem than a true test of theory of mind. when i think “theory of mind” i think being able to model an external agent with complete knowledge, incentives, and behavior. i would not doubt LLMs have something close to this for humans, almost by accident since they are trained on human outputs.
It would be like testing if a society could build a rocket ship when they don't know how to use tools.