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Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

economist.com

41–50 of 122 posts

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#41

Lunar Lake, N100/N97, plus datacenter sales still must add up to some amount of sales?

> N100/N97 Aren't those extremely cheap? Do they have good margins on them?

N100 has a recommended tray price of $55

I feel like if they sold a million of them $55MM in revenue isn’t moving the needle much at all, even with a 100% profit margin.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#42
post #3

Intel being on life support is a bit of a stretch. They are investing an awful lot of money, and it's going to take time for those investments to pay off. I worry more about their inept handling of recent CPU bugs than I do about their stock price or reduced dividends.

I felt this was strongly, and felt incredibly sure of that, until I read Stratechery on it last week: https://stratechery.com/2024/intel-honesty/

It slipped by me how much AMD eating a little more every quarter really added up over the last ~5 years. (~9% to ~50% of datacenter revenue)

Also, the foundry stuff just isn't working as a financial exercise: they can't split it out as a division and massively subsidize it and seem responsible. And there's ~0 light on the horizon. No one wants to use it, even Intel is falling back to using TSMC's leading nodes now, which is letting it tread water against ARM in laptops.

If their confusing plan to do 5 nodes in 2 years or whatever works out, that'd enable them to start reversing the tide: they'd still have to build the same muscles TSMC has from always being a foundry, like having generic designs that are already in the market available, and convince people to switch suppliers, which is always risky, and usually done over years.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#43
post #6

If Intel is critical to the US industrial base, why aren't Nvidia and Apple stepping up to support Intel? What is the point of $3T national champions like Apple and Nvidia if they ship the industrial base overseas.

Global foundries looks boring but competent. Seems a better bet to me.

GF sold its EUV machine several years ago when it decided to stop trying to compete at the leading edge of logic processes. So, they're not comparable to what TSMC, Intel and Samsung are doing.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#44
post #24

Intel is utterly massive and owns their own fabs. Companies that large don't collapse in a day unless there is some illegal shenanigans going on.

Demand for x86 processors isn't going away any time soon either, and they're only one of only two companies with a license to make them. AMD is currently strong on the x86 front, but their production is constrained by the wafer allocations they can get at TSMC while those wafers would be more profitably spent on making GPUs instead.

Is there any industry where x86 is absolutely necessary? Assuming ARM or other architectures could achieve same performance/$ or watt?

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#45

Of all the tech companies in the US, Intel is the most likely to be bailed out by the government, no questions asked. Poor business? Gimme a break. They could exterminate a smaller ~~African~~ scratch that, Central or South American country with zero consequences. Joking aside, I can see the US engaging in heavy-handed protectionism to help Intel.

Joking aside, I can see the US engaging in heavy-handed protectionism to help Intel. Yes, you can[0]. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/CHIPS_and_Science_Act

>> Joking aside, I can see the US engaging in heavy-handed protectionism to help Intel.

Also, you can see it when we punish other businesses who had better strategy

https://www.wsj.com/tech/ai/nvidia-justice-department-probe-...

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#46
post #3

Intel being on life support is a bit of a stretch. They are investing an awful lot of money, and it's going to take time for those investments to pay off. I worry more about their inept handling of recent CPU bugs than I do about their stock price or reduced dividends.

But the article mentions that capital spending is down. Their revenue is also not really growing to support even bigger investments. Government subsidy will only take them so far. And they have stronger competitors in almost every domain they compete in.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#47
post #3

Intel being on life support is a bit of a stretch. They are investing an awful lot of money, and it's going to take time for those investments to pay off. I worry more about their inept handling of recent CPU bugs than I do about their stock price or reduced dividends.

Most of the money Intel is investing now is thanks to giant state sponsorship.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#48
"After two sets of disastrous quarterly earnings the company’s market value has shriveled to $84bn, less than the value of its plants and equipment, from over $210bn in January."

That's scary.

Fabs are so insanely expensive now. US$1 billion to US$4 billion each. Without the money to keep up, Intel becomes a niche player.

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#49
post #15
post #3

Intel being on life support is a bit of a stretch. They are investing an awful lot of money, and it's going to take time for those investments to pay off. I worry more about their inept handling of recent CPU bugs than I do about their stock price or reduced dividends.

Intel is a tarnished brand, sullied by unfixable bugs, suicidal chips, security holes, poorly executed "next gen" ideas, and worse. The only thing they're capable of these days, seemingly, is re-releasing slightly optimized, nearly two decade-old architecture... The people who actually choose their CPU (gamers for the most part) have abandoned Intel in droves. Intel is floundering at an epic scale, and showing no end…

AMD almost went bankrupt until xbox and ps apus saved them. Intel just need a chance to reform

Re: Intel is on life support. Can anything save it?

#50
post #6

If Intel is critical to the US industrial base, why aren't Nvidia and Apple stepping up to support Intel? What is the point of $3T national champions like Apple and Nvidia if they ship the industrial base overseas.

Apple is its own nation state. Why would they show any support for the US industrial base?

They support lowest cost manufacturing in China even when those suppliers have been proven to have stolen the tech (free R&D!) with state support.

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