[deleted]
Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
41–50 of 82 posts
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#42So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…
>but I don't know anymore if all the crazy things he says are to manipulate investors or if he really believes them.
At what point would it be considered fraud?
IDGAF whatever Musk really believes, the fact of the matter is that if he repeats the "any moment" line on an investor call, he has to be held to it. You can't trot out your own personal beliefs with investor's money, even if you sincerely believe it. He has staff and advisors that can tell him point blank if the tech is really ready, or not ready at all. If those advisors or staff tell him that it's close to being ready, that's straight up fraud unless they can put-up-or-shut-up. If they tell him it's not ready but he repeats the lie, it's also fraud.
How many more excuses will we give this guy? This is absurd.
Disclosure: I founded a startup, and have a few investors. I have to be fully transparent with them, because that's not only the ethical thing to do when you take someone's money, you also have to do so because the law compels you to do so. If I tell them that a product is close to being ready, I have to be ready to prove it. I can't make such claims otherwise. Why are we not holding the wealthiest guy on earth to the same laws EVERYONE ELSE is held to?
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#43My guess is that they sold FSD for a lump sum while the tech was experimental. Now that they see the light at the end of the tunnel, they're planning to transition to a subscription model, and the cars that do have it will slowly fall out of circulation as they age, with many of them not having the right hardware for the real thing anyways. This is similar to what they did with supercharging.
What software breakthroughs have they made that make you believe that FSD won't be 5 years away for the rest of time?
I have Tesla FSD, it already regularly drives me point to point with zero interventions.
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#44Earlier quoted context omitted.
"Traditional" self-driving stacks use a ton of pre-built maps, lidar and other range sensors, and has teams of people keeping those maps registered and up to date. Tesla's plan is (or has become) to do an end-run around all that, and just train a giant network on camera-only sensor stacks, so that it can navigate without large 3D representations of the environment / city in which it works, without expensive lidar/rad…
> something like lvl 3 autonomy before any other company did I'm quite sure Mercedes-Benz was the first to bring lvl 3 autonomy on the market. https://arstechnica.com/cars/2023/09/mercedes-benzs-level-3-... It is also the only carmaker confident enough in the system that it takes full liability over it > Confidence in Drive Pilot is high within Mercedes-Benz, as the system has been active in Germany for over a year w…
Mine was a personal example, not a market analysis :)
I'm quite confident that lvl3 autonomy is becoming widespread, regardless.
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#45Earlier quoted context omitted.
Not sure - but Waymo and a few Chinese vendors already have self-driving robotaxis in production. That, combined with the AI boom, tells me that building a self-driving car (even if geofenced and/or L3) is on the horizon. If that's the case, Tesla will probably figure this out as well.
I'm no expert, but anyone can look at the sensors placed on a Waymo compared to a Tesla and likely rightly assume Waymo doesn't have all of that extra stuff just for looks. I don't see how Tesla is even a serious contender.
While I understand your argument and agree that more sensor means easier path to self-driving, our world is now full of systems that can infer amazing amounts of data from a few sensors. This is the progress of technology.
Apple Watch is probably one of the greatest examples. So many of it's features are inferred via "basic" sensors.
On a different angle, sports refereeing is largely becoming possible due to advances in camera based analysis. We can turn 2d images into a nearly centimeter accurate representation of a playing field in seconds.
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#46Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm no expert, but anyone can look at the sensors placed on a Waymo compared to a Tesla and likely rightly assume Waymo doesn't have all of that extra stuff just for looks. I don't see how Tesla is even a serious contender.
The hypothesis was that LIDAR was a crutch, humans manage with just vision. Whether this is correct for delivering self driving cars, we will find out soon enough. Long term though, it definitely makes sense. We just don't know what the missing pieces of the puzzle are.
The missing piece may be a different mode of transport like trains. Humans adapted from creatures that lived in trees over millions of years, a computer has nothing on that evolutionary process of the bad tree jumper getting eaten or breaking a leg and dying.
Spend a few million years programming a computer to swing through trees and they'll probably get something that can drive a car.
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#47> Previously, customers were offered the option to purchase “Full Self-Driving Capability,” They were offered a lie. Tesla still hasn't delivered what those customers paid for. > Let’s look at what else has changed on Tesla’s website on FSD before we dive into the wording changes. Another recent change on Tesla's website is to remove old blog posts, including a 2016 blog post in which Tesla claimed "as of today, all…
Some Teslas don't have the sensor hardware and the compute power to do road-safe FSD. This is something Tesla engineers learned the hard way. Things may change in the future as we make advances in computing and AI, but right now it is not possible.
> Some Teslas don't have the sensor hardware and the compute power to do road-safe FSD.
Come on now. Elon was the one being pigheadedly stubborn about camera vision over LIDAR. There's really no reason to think this was a case where the engineers were insisting on a viable approach that unfortunately proved infeasible over time.
They weren't going to be able to do it with the tech they put in the cars and damn near everyone knew it. We shouldn't think their engineers were uniquely blind to what everyone was saying when it's fairly clear that there was a top down push here.
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#48Earlier quoted context omitted.
The hypothesis was that LIDAR was a crutch, humans manage with just vision. Whether this is correct for delivering self driving cars, we will find out soon enough. Long term though, it definitely makes sense. We just don't know what the missing pieces of the puzzle are.
> humans manage with just vision this is commonly repeated but very obviously untrue. We don't only have vision. We have a general intelligence, coupled with vision. In the absence of AGI, the base assumption has to be the sensor apparatus needs to be significantly superior to humans for an FSD system to drive at a comparable level.
Not to mention it is also untrue because we use senses other than just vision when we drive. We use our ears for acceleration information, sometimes hearing, and the feeling of the wheel when we drive.
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#49Earlier quoted context omitted.
I'm no expert, but anyone can look at the sensors placed on a Waymo compared to a Tesla and likely rightly assume Waymo doesn't have all of that extra stuff just for looks. I don't see how Tesla is even a serious contender.
The hypothesis was that LIDAR was a crutch, humans manage with just vision. Whether this is correct for delivering self driving cars, we will find out soon enough. Long term though, it definitely makes sense. We just don't know what the missing pieces of the puzzle are.
The missing piece is LIDAR.
Re: Tesla FSD no longer offered for purchase
#50So, Musk did repeat the FSD 'any moment' last earnings call and robotaxis using it this september (now) as well. And then they do this. That is why I found it very strange that anyone believes his recent Mars timelines; people I consider smart (PG for instance [0]) are awe struck by such an announcement while we all know that Elon is often decades off. Don't get me wrong, besides his political gibberish and twitter m…
He never believed in colonizing Mars (unless he's a moron). His Mars ambition has always just been about snatching the most lucrative inter-governmental contract that anyone has ever conceived of. Everything Musk has been involved with since PayPal has only been possible through federal subsidies and contracts.