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Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

matthewball.co

41–50 of 878 posts

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#41
post #20

2/3 of its revenues were from the U.S. That's... sad.

> 2/3 of its revenues were from the U.S. That's... sad. Probably common for a lot of luxury products; US is like 1/4 of world GDP, and a lot higher than that in personal income beyond basic needs.

Tiktok ban mentions of WeChat just like they been saying onlyfans.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#43

Seminal article (I guess), https://xsrus.com/the-economics-of-onlyfans > It’s just as easy to imagine demand for the “real thing” going down due to the emergence of more substitutes as it is to imagine the premium for parasocial authenticity going up. And yet only Generative AI “creators” will truly do whatever “you” want and only for you. And unlike real ones, they speak in every language and are available at any ti…

It's the same pipe dream as "AI content creators will take over youtube". There is no "formula" for success in the creator economy - the winners are largely random. A better way to look at it is there are 4 million humans out there trying every permutation to crack success, and ~400k actually do it. Unless you have a sufficiently advanced AI agent that is both varying it's content and it's marketing strategy to the t…

> There is no "formula" for success in the creator economy - the winners are largely random.

I think that strongly depends on what you call "the creator economy". For example, on YT it's really mostly skill: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Ip2trao6dYw

Not that I believe its easy, nor do I think AI will be super good at it, at least not before everything else also enshittifies into the habsburg-AI-powered dead internet.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#44
post #30

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yeah, I'm sure millions of people had this idea. My friends and I talked about it at some point as well. The problem is the payment processor. How the heck do you accept adult-content related payments? That is the hardest problem to solve when it comes to these things in my book.

Payment is the hardest part in this space. Somehow OnlyFans had the privilege to use Stripe for all their transactions. It's beyond knowing the business model, I guess the founder were at the right place and right time and knew the right people to make this venture succeed. Also, the marketing, how the heck did these guy blow up so fast. The funds for marketing and all, it's not cheap!

If someone has a serious pitch to the tune of "I've got enough leverage with key players in Stripe to make an adult site work", everything afterwards would get pretty easy. Finding money to advertise is no problem, these sites are in a great position if they can work around the payment systems. The difficulty becomes the moat.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#45
post #35

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Why? They're common people, not sociopaths.

I think maybe it's my own personal bias, but it does feel like anyone who pays money for an AI girlfriend really won't want it to disagree with them. I believe they'll want an idyllic and fantasy version of a relationship.

I dunno how sustainable that scenario is, because it brings to mind the maybe apocryphal Chinese curse "may you be granted everything you wish for".

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#47

I find myself a little sad at how lucrative a job this will appear for an entire generation. $1500 average creator pay is higher than 40 hours a week minimum wage.

That's $1500 annually for the average creator, and due to concentration at the top, the median take home is going to be even lower than that.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#48
post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

It's the same pipe dream as "AI content creators will take over youtube". There is no "formula" for success in the creator economy - the winners are largely random. A better way to look at it is there are 4 million humans out there trying every permutation to crack success, and ~400k actually do it. Unless you have a sufficiently advanced AI agent that is both varying it's content and it's marketing strategy to the t…

A good AI girlfriend wouldn't be a therapist but would mimics every aspect of a girlfriend, including arguments and fights and makeups, because that's how bonding occurs. That's going to be how successful AI girlfriend will be made.

Your assumption is that the status quo provides those things. Nowadays, people will break up as soon as they get "the ick" or just have a rotating group of people they see. Lasting relationships are much less common than they used to be because it's easier to switch partners.

People just want to chase a local maximum of constant validation that they're pretty/smart/correct. They don't see or understand the value in working through fights to create something beyond the sum of two people.

AI excels at maintaining that local maximum. It can confidently reassure you better than any human can even if you're wrong. AI partners following this are successful now and people in their teens and early 20s are being hooked en masse.

Historically, superior pieces of technology haven't displaced older incumbents when the learning curve is too steep.

I don't see why a person dating an AI partner that has lovebombed them for several years would switch to another AI (or a person) that starts fights and bickers. Even if it's better in the long-term, that's still a marked decrease in short-term satisfaction.

Re: Breaking Down OnlyFans' Economics

#50

I find myself a little sad at how lucrative a job this will appear for an entire generation. $1500 average creator pay is higher than 40 hours a week minimum wage.

That's $1500 annually for the average creator, and due to concentration at the top, the median take home is going to be even lower than that.

Yes, it's misleading to share averages for power-law distributions. Median take home pay is probably $20 annually.
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