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I really don't understand how fiscal years work. We are in Q3 of 2024. Is the AI just predicting what their Q2 2025 results will be?
Fiscal year ends in September to avoid having to finalize documents over the Christmas holidays.
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> Looks like things are slowing down Important question: is it demand or manufacturing capability?
It’s because all the gargantuan numbers were relative to their slump year when they crashed hard. It was a stratospheric comeback but people who expected a linear trajectory from that are missing the context
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not everyone works on ai or ai adjacent products, or even tech on this site
Do you have a 401k or any kind of ETF investment? It’s highly unlikely you have zero investment in NVIDIA.
Most people reading this will indeed have zero investment in Nvidia.
Numbers are impressive, not sure why it's down in AH.
Because markets are forward-looking. They know this cycle of the AI hype bubble is coming to an end, so to put it simply, this earnings release is as good as it will get for a while. The market believes there's nowhere to go but down from here.
It's just that the rate of growth is slowing and when nvda is at a 45 P/E, you need high growth to justify its market cap.
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not everyone works on ai or ai adjacent products, or even tech on this site
tech is a large component of the overall economy though, so like it or not, we're all attached to this. I'm not a banker investing into mortgage-backed-securities either, but the 2008 GFC still affected me.
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I mean when your PE ratio is 75 expectations are about as high as they can be
Forward PE (assuming same earnings as current quarter for full year) is around 40. Trailing PE can be misleading in high growth phases.
What is the case for continued growth of Nvidia? Every single sizeable entity (Google, Microsoft, Intel, AMD, etc.) is working furiously to replace them. I can imagine plenty of reasons that Nvidia sales would remain strong, but I understand less where more growth would come from.
The reason you’re confused is you are thinking of the peers of NVIDIA as being AMD and Intel and not Apple and Nintendo and Sony, or mainframe vendors, etc. The reason they are different from AMD or Intel (or I think we can throw Xbox into this pile too too) uses AMD or intel because they want to use AMD or intel, they use them because they are a convenient compile target for code that you’ve gone to the effort of making very portable. And that’s a commodity market, where the other things are platforms with an organic userbase that’s not just there because it’s the cheapest thing.
(this is true of gaming gpus too btw, other than AMD APUs being very compelling for handheld and laptop gaming, and maybe Lunar Lake. whereas people want to use nvidia - that’s the actual meaning of “mindshare” and not the “mind control field” AMD fans assume mindshare to be. People who use the product for the product’s sake and not just pure cost expediency.)
The other thing I think people are sleeping on is the mediatek partnerships. They already announced three different markets (some are already launched) - automotive, smartphone SOCs, now monitor controllers too. They will almost certainly be the vessel for Nvidia’s desktop chip next year too - functionally they are partnered with /oem for nvidia now. Nvidia already has PNY to be their Foxconn/Sapphire, now they have Mediatek to do the boring plumbing work in their designs. Nvidia simply doesn’t have the staffing to tap these markets and staffing up with a bunch of boring suit and tie workers would destroy what makes nvidia tick, now they can go tap these other markets.
I think people really really overstated Nvidia’s unwillingness to license their IP etc. Buying ARM was a play for getting GeForce as the default graphics IP for basic smartphones and shit, and giving CUDA access to that market. Well, getting your IP into mediatek is the next best thing. Thinking Jensen wanted to buy arm to sell more tegras is pleb tier thinking and ambition. Nvidia didn’t pony up $40 billion to burn it all down. That’s fucking stupid.
There’s obviously a point where it gets stupid, but nvidia is genuinely still a company with a huge amount of growth potential and thinking they can sustainably lock in most of their current earnings isn’t too crazy. The real counterweight is that it’s a one man show and Jensen is getting old. But it seems like maybe Catanzaro is being positioned as a potential heir, what with him being the public face of dlss as well as the AI effort as a whole there. He seems like a logical choice of heir.
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delusional to think it isn't
It's called 2nd / 3rd order effects. The entire Tech sector was propped up Nvidia and GenAI since Nov 2022. The bloodbath that would have ensued in the Tech sector (depressing salary and accelerating layoffs) would have been unfathomable. If you think the $4 Trillion created in the Tech sector since Nov 2022 didn't affect non-AI people positively, you are naive about how the economy works
It's been shown multiple times[0][1] that the majority of HN users are not American, certainly not 100% (as you assessed further up). It would also be reasonable to assume that not all American HN users work in a graphics card relevant space, or even tech.
Think of the dev ecosystem effects in all the various permutations, e.g. from Windows or Apple to AWS to more granular like PyTorch.
Those advantages aren't easily eliminated just by more competitors or even 'better' competitors.
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delusional to think it isn't
not everyone works on ai or ai adjacent products, or even tech on this site
this isn’t to say a down quarter that’s 25% down or whatever would be fatal. Obviously it’s going to have to correct a little at some point etc. Or if everyone else is obviously doing fine and it’s some nvidia-specific thing. But if Jensen got on the phone and said they were down 75% in next quarter orders on the basis of secular market trends and expected further cancellations, the tech market as a whole would probably crumple.
Most of the gpus nvidia sells aren’t DGX, they’re going into dell or HP or supermicro servers. Even the ones that aren’t officially partnered benefit from this ecosystem momentum etc. AI buildout has sold a lot of computers, a lot of memory, a lot of racks and networking and optics and electrical, etc.
As what is still functionally the only company making money on gpgpu sales right now, and with them functionally being near-100% datacenter and related (automotive etc) they are a massive leading signal on where the market is headed. The next best one is like… powercolor (TUL Corp).
(and nvidia conveniently does break it out anyway, but a lot of companies like AMD tend to submerge it in another group to deliberately make the revenue difficult to break out.)