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What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

writings.stephenwolfram.com

41–50 of 73 posts

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#41

Classic Wolfram — brilliant, reimplements / comes at a current topic using only cellular automata, and draws some fairly deep philosophical conclusions that are pretty intriguing. The part I find most interesting is his proposal that neural networks largely work by “hitching a ride” on fundamental computational complexity, in practice sort of searching around the space of functions representable by an architecture fo…

> searching around the space of functions representable by an architecture for something that works

That’s… why we’re here?

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#42

Classic Wolfram — brilliant, reimplements / comes at a current topic using only cellular automata, and draws some fairly deep philosophical conclusions that are pretty intriguing. The part I find most interesting is his proposal that neural networks largely work by “hitching a ride” on fundamental computational complexity, in practice sort of searching around the space of functions representable by an architecture fo…

> searching around the space of functions representable by an architecture for something that works

That’s… why we’re here? How else could we characterise what any learning algorithm does?

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#43
post #29
post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree - the whole "he's great" vs "he's evil and a con" just gets old. Everyone is a complex mixture of both. My dad loved reading and sharing technical subjects with me and is probably part of the reason why I enjoy a good career today. He also cheated on my mom for 30 years for which we didn't discover until the last 3 years of his life. We didn't have much money growing up. He probably took her out to dinner with…

Elon's not more evil than anyone else, he's just way dumber than everyone expected him to be when we were in the honeymoon phase.

Elon is unusual not in how much his fans adore him (and they do), but the degree to which his haters hate him. I've seen plenty of places where people simply stating facts or talking about their own experiences gets downvoted to invisibility.

Even points that you wouldn't think would be controversial, like "Tesla disrupted the EV industry that was previously only interested in building compliance cars for rich crunchy-granola city weirdos", are almost instantly shot down. Anything that isn't just outright hatred for Elon gets slammed to hell. It's almost impossible to have a balanced discussion about him or his companies.

I also don't think he's as dumb as people think. He has an eye for industries that are ripe for disruption and has actually managed to deliver at least twice so far. There is no question at all that SpaceX is the premier launch provider in the world today (I know I'm getting downvoted for saying this). Tesla sells about half of the EVs sold in the US and basically didn't exist 10 years ago. The jury is still out on the Boring company. Neuralink and Optimus are still too new to tell. Even Paypal is a good example of seeing a market gap and exploiting it. Twitter/X was the real stinker. Elon is exactly the wrong guy to be running a social media company, and worse he thinks he is winning by out-foxing Fox News. He's got that engagement algorithm brain that results when you chase bigger numbers. It is the biggest right wing black hole you could imagine and Elon himself has fallen right down the center. You couldn't ask for a more perfect radicalization system than he has built with the "pay for voice" scheme with basically no bot protection.

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#44
post #31
post #19

I believe that this is one of the key takeaways for reasoning about LLMs and other seemingly-magical recent developments in AI: "tasks—like writing essays—that we humans could do, but we didn’t think computers could do, are actually in some sense computationally easier than we thought." It hurts one's pride to realize that the specialized thing they do isn't quite as special as was previously thought.

Computers still aren’t writing essays. They are stringing words together using copied data. If they were writing essays, I would suggest that it wouldn’t be so ridiculously easy to pick out the obviously AI articles everywhere.

>They are stringing words together using copied data

Ah yes and image generators are just rearranging stolen pixels.

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#45

Classic Wolfram — brilliant, reimplements / comes at a current topic using only cellular automata, and draws some fairly deep philosophical conclusions that are pretty intriguing. The part I find most interesting is his proposal that neural networks largely work by “hitching a ride” on fundamental computational complexity, in practice sort of searching around the space of functions representable by an architecture fo…

> neural networks largely work by “hitching a ride” on fundamental computational complexity

If you look at what a biological neural network is actually trying to optimize for, you might be able to answer The Bitter Lesson more adeptly.

Latency is a caveat, not a feature. Simulating a biologically-plausible amount of real-time delay is almost certainly wasteful.

Leaky charge carriers are another caveat. In a computer simulation, you can never leak any charge (i.e. information) if you so desire. This would presumably make the simulation more efficient.

Inhibitory neurology exists to preserve stability of the network within the constraints of biology. In a simulation, resources are still constrained but you could use heuristics outside biology to eliminate the fundamental need for this extra complexity. For example, halting the network after a limit of spiking activity is met.

Learning rules like STDP may exist because population members learned experiences cannot survive across generations. If you have the ability to copy the exact learned experiences from prior generations into new generations (i.e. cloning the candidates in memory), this learning rule may represent a confusing distraction more than a benefit.

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#46
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon's not more evil than anyone else, he's just way dumber than everyone expected him to be when we were in the honeymoon phase.

Elon is unusual not in how much his fans adore him (and they do), but the degree to which his haters hate him. I've seen plenty of places where people simply stating facts or talking about their own experiences gets downvoted to invisibility. Even points that you wouldn't think would be controversial, like "Tesla disrupted the EV industry that was previously only interested in building compliance cars for rich crunch…

Agree about SpaceX, but I'm not sure how much of that is about Elon. Tesla used to be awesome, its nascency is what I was referring to as the "honeymoon phase," but it definitely feels like it's gone downhill with the Cybertruck goofiness. Like it feels like it has some awesome engineers that do the cool stuff, and then you have Elon interfering from the top and injecting his goofy ass ideas while everyone else is trying to make the company work. Feels like Tesla is like, super cool engineering and then oh yeah there's Elon over there in the corner playing with his toys and we try to keep him from messing things up too much. Every Tesla engineer I've heard from echoes this, he springs random requirements on them and they often learn of new product requirements or features from his Twitter posts and then they're in panic mode trying to implement whatever half-baked stupid idea he had on the toilet at 3 AM.

Most of your last paragraph about Twitter is what has caused me to think he's dumb, in spite of having a few early successes which may be attributable to survivor bias (you have millions of people taking random risks, some of them are going to pan out randomly, and after the first one you have money so it's easy to make more money). Calling the rescuer guy a "pedo guy" during the crisis in Thailand and just myriad other inane utterances have tanked his valuation in my eyes.

But I think I might agree with you that "dumb" is the wrong word. Perhaps "unwise" is what I'm feeling. He may have skills and intelligence to apply those skills to start businesses or make money or whatever. But he doesn't apply that intelligence to the end that we might call wisdom, and I think that's what I as well as a lot of other people are trying to articulate when they say he's dumb. Agree with you though, people aren't black and white.

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#47
post #35
post #16

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Agree. (D)NNs have a powerful but somewhat loose inductive bias. They're great at capturing surface-level complexity but often miss the deeper compositional structure. This looseness, in my opinion, stems from a combination of factors: architectures that are not optimally designed for the specific task at hand, limitations in computational resources that prevent us from exploring more complex and expressive models, a…

What is GPR?

Gaussian Process Regression (a form of Bayesian Optimisation to try and get to the right "answer"/parameter space sooner) - explained in some context here...

https://brendanhasz.github.io/2019/03/28/hyperparameter-opti...

In saying that random param search still works well enough in many cases.

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#48
post #33

This article does a good job laying the foundation of why I think homiconic languages are so important, and doing AI in languages that aren't, are doomed to stagnation in the long term. The acrobatics that Wolfram can do with the code and his analysis is awesome, and doing the same without the homoiconicity and metaprogramming makes my poor brain shudder. Do note, Wolfram Language is homoiconic, and I think I remembe…

I'd be curious to see an example of what you are talking about wrt his analysis here.

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#49
It is interesting to see the type of analysis he does and the visualizations are impressive, but the conclusions don't really seem too surprising. To me, it seems the most efficient learning algorithm will not be simpler but rather much more complex, likely some kind of hybrid involving a multitude of approaches. An analogy here would be looking at modern microprocessors -- although they have evolved from some relatively simple machines, they involve many layers of optimizations for executing various types of programs.

Re: What's Going on in Machine Learning? Some Minimal Models

#50
post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Elon is unusual not in how much his fans adore him (and they do), but the degree to which his haters hate him. I've seen plenty of places where people simply stating facts or talking about their own experiences gets downvoted to invisibility. Even points that you wouldn't think would be controversial, like "Tesla disrupted the EV industry that was previously only interested in building compliance cars for rich crunch…

Agree about SpaceX, but I'm not sure how much of that is about Elon. Tesla used to be awesome, its nascency is what I was referring to as the "honeymoon phase," but it definitely feels like it's gone downhill with the Cybertruck goofiness. Like it feels like it has some awesome engineers that do the cool stuff, and then you have Elon interfering from the top and injecting his goofy ass ideas while everyone else is tr…

Maybe "poor emotional intelligence". Like you said, a person can plausibly get lucky on their first business and make it big once. But to do it repeatedly and to such a large degree takes skill. Say what you will about his politics, but his companies deliver. Even Hyperloop, which is basically just a bad subway, still has more buildout than pretty much any subway system in the US in the past decade. That might just be Elon willing to lose a ton of money on it to get it built though.

Might be interesting to compare and contrast the Las Vegas Hyperloop vs. the Las Vegas Monorail. Which is more of a boondoggle?

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