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Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

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Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#41

Post by zactato »

The best thing about waymos is the screen that shows the machine vision and object identification. It sees all the cars, bikes, pedestrians, buses in a full 360 degree circle around the vehicle. It can make good predictions about what each one is doing.

This visual makes it clear how much better it is at driving than humans. There aren't blind spots, it stops at stop signs, it doesn't dangerously speed around corners.

Human drivers create a lot of dangers for pedestrians and cyclists in the city.

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#42

Post by xnx »

bhhaskin wrote: post #40
stopachka wrote: post #10

I rode my first Waymo last weekend. It's _significantly_ better than an Uber. You get an almost 'white-glove' experience getting inside. Then, you have complete privacy. I could get work done in the car guilt-free. I was very surprised with the experience

Odd that you felt you had complete privacy. I would imagine you are monitored six ways to Sunday.

Video recording is always on, but audio recording is only when you call for customer service.

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#43

Post by xnx »

bryanlarsen wrote: post #38
dudus wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Since Uber and Lyft make no money it's not a reasonable comparison, they are only cheap because they are financed by VC money. Uber and Lyft only exists today because there's an expectation that in a not so distant future they'll be able to replace all their pesky drivers that demand compensation and benefits for Waymos.

Uber is significantly profitable.

Possibly only because drivers don't realize the hidden cost of insurance, maintenance, accidents, fuel, etc. It's anyone's guess if there is a limitless supply of desperate drivers, or if they will wise up.

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#44

Post by kylehotchkiss »

drawnwren wrote: post #11
650REDHAIR wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I’d like to see the financial analysis. This job competes directly with San Franciscans who pay taxes and commuting drivers who spend money on food and gas. When we wipe them out and replace it with a tax-dodging multinational corporation what happens to our local economy?

When was the last time you had an Uber driver that actually lived in San Francisco? Most of the drivers I talk to were driving in, from as far away as San Diego.

Are you saying a driver commuted 8 hours north to drive for Uber? and then back when he was done?

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#45

Post by matthewdgreen »

buu700 wrote: post #33
ghaff wrote: post #32

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Presumably the incremental cost comes down over time and selling the tech to car manufacturers could become an interesting business. (I'm skeptical it would be a direct to consumer business.) I assume that is how it will play out but it will probably be over a fairly long time horizon. I'm also skeptical that the "let others use your car when you're not" ever becomes a major model.

That's a good point, agreed, I don't think Waymo would need to be the vendor of the actual vehicle. It makes more sense that existing manufacturers would sell "Waymo Inside" models that include their tech, and then services like Uber and Lyft would build integrations on Waymo's SDK to be able to manage such vehicles on behalf of the owners.

What value is the owner providing here? For traditional cabs they're doing (1) driving, (2) customer acquisition, (3) maintenance, (4) capital provision. For Uber/Lyft the customer acquisition is centralized, but they're still doing 1, 3, 4. For a Waymo-like service the owner is basically just investing cash and doing occasional cleaning/maintenance work.

Is capital so scarce that this is needed for services to operate? And is decentralized maintenance/cleaning really going to be more economical than centralized operations that benefit from economies of scale?

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#46

Post by george___c »

zactato wrote: post #41

The best thing about waymos is the screen that shows the machine vision and object identification. It sees all the cars, bikes, pedestrians, buses in a full 360 degree circle around the vehicle. It can make good predictions about what each one is doing. This visual makes it clear how much better it is at driving than humans. There aren't blind spots, it stops at stop signs, it doesn't dangerously speed around corners…

This object identification and prediction capability can be easily overloaded. Last night, coming home from Summer Symphony (Idaho's big improvement on Frisco's Stern Grove), I encountered 30 or so drivers behaving rather erratically due to a small roadside meadow containing at least 75 deer, all of which could decide to cross the roadway en masse within a few seconds. I successfully navigated all this, but I would NOT want to be in a Waymo for this trip. And this was in very good weather; obviously bad weather complicates this scenario even further.

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#47

Post by buu700 »

matthewdgreen wrote: post #45
buu700 wrote: post #33

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's a good point, agreed, I don't think Waymo would need to be the vendor of the actual vehicle. It makes more sense that existing manufacturers would sell "Waymo Inside" models that include their tech, and then services like Uber and Lyft would build integrations on Waymo's SDK to be able to manage such vehicles on behalf of the owners.

What value is the owner providing here? For traditional cabs they're doing (1) driving, (2) customer acquisition, (3) maintenance, (4) capital provision. For Uber/Lyft the customer acquisition is centralized, but they're still doing 1, 3, 4. For a Waymo-like service the owner is basically just investing cash and doing occasional cleaning/maintenance work. Is capital so scarce that this is needed for services to opera…

In my mind, it would be controlling both pricing and geographic allocation of resources in a market-driven way. The idea is to be a strategy for efficiently rolling out the service at scale in a way that distributes the risks and profits, like how Uber and Lyft grew by outsourcing to independent drivers rather than buying a bunch of cars and hiring a bunch of drivers in particular locations.

I don't know how the numbers work out, but if the parent commenter is correct that hardware costs are going to be a bottleneck, it seems reasonable to me that essentially crowdfunding a global deployment would be a way to address that. It could accelerate the rollout and provide economies of scale more quickly than Waymo alone footing the bill, and wouldn't preclude them from still additionally investing their own capital.

Aside from that, it seems like there would be some demand for ownership of autonomous vehicles from people who either don't want to rent them out or only want to do so part-time, and selling the vehicles directly to tap into that would help further increase the scale of both production and robotaxiing.

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#48

Post by xnx »

george___c wrote: post #46
zactato wrote: post #41

The best thing about waymos is the screen that shows the machine vision and object identification. It sees all the cars, bikes, pedestrians, buses in a full 360 degree circle around the vehicle. It can make good predictions about what each one is doing. This visual makes it clear how much better it is at driving than humans. There aren't blind spots, it stops at stop signs, it doesn't dangerously speed around corners…

This object identification and prediction capability can be easily overloaded. Last night, coming home from Summer Symphony (Idaho's big improvement on Frisco's Stern Grove), I encountered 30 or so drivers behaving rather erratically due to a small roadside meadow containing at least 75 deer, all of which could decide to cross the roadway en masse within a few seconds. I successfully navigated all this, but I would N…

Waymo vehicles have definitely encountered roads with 75+ people by the side of the road, and have definitely encountered deer. I would feel very safe in a Waymo in the circumstance you described.

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#49

Post by ozymandium »

xnx wrote: post #42
bhhaskin wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Odd that you felt you had complete privacy. I would imagine you are monitored six ways to Sunday.

Video recording is always on, but audio recording is only when you call for customer service.

does that mean you're a waymo employee with access to their audio data retention management, or are you referencing their public claims? either way, simply by virtue of the video recording alone (which is truly a drop in the bucket), you have at best the same privacy as in a highly monitored human driven vehicle.

the absence of other humans is immaterial with regard to privacy.

Re: Yes, there are more driverless Waymos in S.F

#50

Post by xnx »

ozymandium wrote: post #49
xnx wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Video recording is always on, but audio recording is only when you call for customer service.

does that mean you're a waymo employee with access to their audio data retention management, or are you referencing their public claims? either way, simply by virtue of the video recording alone (which is truly a drop in the bucket), you have at best the same privacy as in a highly monitored human driven vehicle. the absence of other humans is immaterial with regard to privacy.

I base this on the information that is displayed in the vehicle.

> the absence of other humans is immaterial with regard to privacy.

I think my attitude with Uber v. Waymo as very similar to AirBnB v. hotel chains. My trust in AirBnB hosts to not install hidden cameras is much lower than hotel chains.

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