Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Human history in the very long run (2021)

slowboring.com

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 115 posts

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#41

Post by deanCommie »

harimau777 wrote: post #34
southernplaces7 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vastly overwhelming body of evidence clearly indicates that today humanity is materially and by nearly all concrete measurements of human well-being better off than at any time in all its long history. This paints a powerful case for humanity also being psychologically and emotionally better off, on average, than at any older time in history since, as should be obvious, dodging starvation, random war, plague and…

Speaking from a US perspective, a lot of people have lost their connection to society and to a sense of meaningful cultural identity. There's a crisis of singleness that hasn't been present in much, although not all, of human history. Home ownership is way down. At various points throughout human history it was common for people to own their own homes. Most people have very little autonomy in their day to day work. I…

At various points throughout human history it was also common for people to forage/hunt/grow their own food, too.

I resonate with the rest of your post - I do think having a connection to society is vital, and I also think that the US has become too much of a me-first, get-ahead-at-all-costs hustle culture that devalues social bonds. But I see people still forming very deep cultural identities.

I also agree with you that pride in one's accomplishments and a sense of purpose is important and home ownership is ONE way to achieve that - to have control over at least that facet of your life.

But it's far from the only one.

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#42

Post by ibash »

munchler wrote: post #40
kelseyfrog wrote: post #4

Is there any writer who criticizes Marx on his own terms? Marx agreed that quality of life can improve under capitalism. The whole point was a ethical/social critique of mismatched incentives and power imbalances of such an arrangement. It doesn't matter if life improves if the only choices one has in life is either live under the power imbalance of wage labor or extract value from those who do. If folks can be blame…

> It doesn't matter if life improves if the only choices one has in life is either live under the power imbalance of wage labor or extract value from those who do. Most people choose this system, when given a vote via democracy, even when they have to live under the power imbalance. For Marx to be right, you have to argue that these people are deluded somehow, which isn't particularly convincing.

> Most people choose this system, when given a vote via democracy

Are you talking about American voting or something else? When’s the last time they’ve been realistically given this choice?

Even if your premise was true there’s a simpler explanation: after you enter this system it’s extremely hard to get out of it from within the system itself. No delusion required.

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#43

Post by somenameforme »

southernplaces7 wrote: post #19
darby_nine wrote: post #3

The downside of using modern metrics to estimate the happiness of past people is that you won't ever measure the stuff that we've lost. We'll never really know, and you should look at all such comparisons with deep suspicion (especially eyeballing you, Steven Pinker)

The vastly overwhelming body of evidence clearly indicates that today humanity is materially and by nearly all concrete measurements of human well-being better off than at any time in all its long history. This paints a powerful case for humanity also being psychologically and emotionally better off, on average, than at any older time in history since, as should be obvious, dodging starvation, random war, plague and…

This article is speaking of the distant past (and perhaps you are as well) but in relatively recent history, I think the losses can be clearly demonstrated. Near to every form of emotional and mental disorder is at record highs in most Western countries, including the US. [1] IQ levels, after increasing ever since it began being measured, have started declining. [2] Testosterone levels are plummeting, obesity is skyrocketing, social divides are reaching catastrophic levels (which I mention since I think it's viable that the digital age is meaningfully contributing to this), and so on. And yes I obviously see the argument re: obesity vs famine, but the issue is malnourishment. One can be obese or overweight and malnourished, and in fact most people suffering from malnutrition are. [3]

Perhaps most importantly of all - fertility rates have fallen so low that we have created literally unsustainable societies. I don't think people realize how catastrophic our fertility rates have grown. You can estimate the impact of a fertility rate (once an entire population shares it) as being a factor of fertility_rate/2 applied every ~20 years to a population. So South Korea, with its 0.68 fertility rate, will eventually start losing about 66% of its population every ~20 years. And this will happen until they go extinct (which is surprisingly rapid at such a scale), or start having more children. And while they have, by far, the lowest fertility rate in the world, most of the world is on a trendline to follow right behind them.

[1] - https://news.gallup.com/poll/505745/depression-rates-reach-n...

[2] - https://www.popularmechanics.com/science/a43469569/american-...

[3] - https://cardiology.medicine.ufl.edu/2020/08/13/malnutrition-...

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#44

Post by kiba »

harimau777 wrote: post #34
southernplaces7 wrote: post #19

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The vastly overwhelming body of evidence clearly indicates that today humanity is materially and by nearly all concrete measurements of human well-being better off than at any time in all its long history. This paints a powerful case for humanity also being psychologically and emotionally better off, on average, than at any older time in history since, as should be obvious, dodging starvation, random war, plague and…

Speaking from a US perspective, a lot of people have lost their connection to society and to a sense of meaningful cultural identity. There's a crisis of singleness that hasn't been present in much, although not all, of human history. Home ownership is way down. At various points throughout human history it was common for people to own their own homes. Most people have very little autonomy in their day to day work. I…

That is caused by people making decisions decades in the past, and the inertia persists to the present day.

In other words, it didn't start with social media. Rather, social media exacerbate what was already happening for decades at this point.

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#45

Post by corimaith »

DaoVeles wrote: post #32
southernplaces7 wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Really? These are the things to lament having lost in comparison to all the things that humans have gained? Today you can still buy simple tools and equipment that are very long lasting, or you can choose modern conveniences. Either way, you actually have that choice, and buying either won't cost you a huge percentage of your wages as was the case in preindustrial times in which any manufactured or produced goods wer…

TO be fair, these are shoot from the hip responses. I'm not as quick thinking as I used to be. I'm sure I could have some better examples if you give me a day or two. I don't really work on the time of internet comment sections all the time. I think the angle you have is one of assuming I am advocating that "things used to be better!". I am not, I am saying it is possible to pick parts of the past that worked, figure…

I think you're presenting an overly idealized view of the pre modern agricultural life.

That lifestyle still exists in many parts of the world, but there is a reason why most of these substinence farmers encourage their kids to get an education and move out. Those poor farmers in India or China would pick the ticket out if they could. Just like how most farmers left to work in factories during the industrial revolution.

You can read some more critical analysis by historians or just work in a farm yourself, it's hard, long , backbreaking work. It's not something most humans would be will ing to return to.

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#46

Post by jbgt »

darby_nine wrote: post #3

The downside of using modern metrics to estimate the happiness of past people is that you won't ever measure the stuff that we've lost. We'll never really know, and you should look at all such comparisons with deep suspicion (especially eyeballing you, Steven Pinker)

I recently discovered a blog by a historian that tries to describe life as it was.

Here's the post about what's needed to feed society with bread (there are many others) https://acoup.blog/2020/07/24/collections-bread-how-did-they...

To my understanding, much of the work was backbreaking, disease was a big problem, starvation around the corner every year. And governance and freedoms were mostly reduced to service to a local strongman.

And this is before the industrial revolution, working in insalubrious factories, belching smoke steam engines etc.

Nowadays I think things are significantly better for the majority of people.

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#47

Post by deanCommie »

adrian_b wrote: post #38
Larrikin wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What did we lose that you think would make us happier? I can only think of things certain people lost that would make them happier at the expense of making others as miserable as possible.

Well, I have already lost the kind of food to which I had access as a child, because now I cannot buy anything similar from anywhere, at least as a city dweller. When I was spending my vacations with my grandparents as a child, they had a huge garden with an astonishing number of different kinds of fruits. They were planned in such a way that most of the year, from early spring until the beginning of the winter there…

I think this is the perfect example. You're absolutely right in every example. But what's changed by having these fruits having less flavour but lower costs, and longer shelf life, is that now much MORE of humanity has access to nutritious and delicious fruits the entire year round, with international supply chains resilient to individual incremental weather phenomenon.

I'm not even going to go down the route that most people in the world didn't have grandparents with a huge garden - let's accept as a baseline that maybe there was a time in human history when every human had access to something like this.

Before the modern world, a single frost, blight, or death in the family, could have wiped out an entire harvest and everyone in a community would starve.

That's less likely today.

Result: Probably a net benefit for humanity overall. Worth it? Highly subjective but as a humnist, i think I have to say yes.

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#48

Post by relativ575 »

adrian_b wrote: post #38
Larrikin wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What did we lose that you think would make us happier? I can only think of things certain people lost that would make them happier at the expense of making others as miserable as possible.

Well, I have already lost the kind of food to which I had access as a child, because now I cannot buy anything similar from anywhere, at least as a city dweller. When I was spending my vacations with my grandparents as a child, they had a huge garden with an astonishing number of different kinds of fruits. They were planned in such a way that most of the year, from early spring until the beginning of the winter there…

Well, now you have access to other kinds of food that you didn't have when you were a kid, such as international cuisines. Who is to say which way is better? Although it's certainly the case that it'd be ideal if you could have both

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#49

Post by relativ575 »

conception wrote: post #23
Larrikin wrote: post #6

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What did we lose that you think would make us happier? I can only think of things certain people lost that would make them happier at the expense of making others as miserable as possible.

Free time.

Are you sure? People of the old time spent most of their time worrying about having food on the table. I doubt they could have time for FB if it was to exist at the time

Re: Human history in the very long run (2021)

#50

Post by Rury »

munchler wrote: post #40
kelseyfrog wrote: post #4

Is there any writer who criticizes Marx on his own terms? Marx agreed that quality of life can improve under capitalism. The whole point was a ethical/social critique of mismatched incentives and power imbalances of such an arrangement. It doesn't matter if life improves if the only choices one has in life is either live under the power imbalance of wage labor or extract value from those who do. If folks can be blame…

> It doesn't matter if life improves if the only choices one has in life is either live under the power imbalance of wage labor or extract value from those who do. Most people choose this system, when given a vote via democracy, even when they have to live under the power imbalance. For Marx to be right, you have to argue that these people are deluded somehow, which isn't particularly convincing.

People don't need to be deluded, just ignorant. And you don't even need that, just having a different set of priorities would suffice.
Post reply on HN