I’m very skeptical of any future prediction whose main evidence is an extrapolation of existing trendlines. Moore’s Law - frequently referenced in the original article - provides a cautionary tale for such thinking. Plenty of folks in the 90’s relied on a shallow understanding of integrated circuits and computers more generally to extrapolate extraordinary claims of exponential growth in computing power which obviously didn’t come to pass; counterarguments from actual experts were often dismissed with the same kind of rebuttal we see here, i.e. “that problem will magically get solved once we turn our focus to it.”
More generally, the author doesn’t operationalize any of their terms or get out of the weeds of their argument. What constitutes AGI? Even if LLMs do continue to improve at the current rate (as measured by some synthetic benchmark), why do we assume that said improvement will be what’s needed to bridge the gap between the capabilities of current LLMs and AGI?