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America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

theatlantic.com

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Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#41

Post by Dylan16807 »

asdff wrote: post #36
Dylan16807 wrote: post #31

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Batteries do keep getting cheaper, and from what I've seen even at median they do better than 10 years, let alone at beat. Though just to toss some numbers out, if you had to buy a $10k battery every 150k miles that's definitely affordable.

The thing is with the used car market is that maintenance cost is not paid by all the owners. Its paid only by who happens to be holding the hot potato when the battery is screwed, and most people with means aren't holding a car to 150k miles, that's about how many miles an ICE car has in the maybe $5kish used range. The sort of person buying a $5k car can't afford a $10k battery. They might not have access to $10k o…

EV batteries don't tend to suddenly die, do they? You can negotiate a lower price for a weaker battery, and you don't have to replace it the moment it hits 80% capacity.

And we're currently talking about cars that are worth significantly more than $5k. An extra 30% to fix it up is very different from an extra 200%.

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#42

Post by adam_arthur »

janalsncm wrote: post #37

> China, where new EVs can go for about $10,000 or less This is the part that hit me. In America we have no idea how much we are overpaying for things. There are plenty of reasons, sure, but at the end of the day things are wildly expensive with little to no acknowledgment from the government.

The government is more interested in protecting autoworker jobs in the US than lowering the cost to a broader set of consumers, unfortunately.

If we allowed Chinese autos into the country free of tariffs, prices would almost certainly decline materially in real terms over the next few years.

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#43

Post by reaperman »

janalsncm wrote: post #37

> China, where new EVs can go for about $10,000 or less This is the part that hit me. In America we have no idea how much we are overpaying for things. There are plenty of reasons, sure, but at the end of the day things are wildly expensive with little to no acknowledgment from the government.

The government is doing what it can to keep things expensive to insulate domestic industry from global changes. This is entirely on purpose. 266% tax on chinese steel, 25% tariff on pickup trucks, 30-50% tariffs on washing machines, 100% tariffs on electric vehicles, 50% tariffs on solar panels, etc.

This isn’t even getting into the regulatory capture which prevents foreign products from being used/sold in USA.

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#44

Post by Clubber »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #41
asdff wrote: post #36

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The thing is with the used car market is that maintenance cost is not paid by all the owners. Its paid only by who happens to be holding the hot potato when the battery is screwed, and most people with means aren't holding a car to 150k miles, that's about how many miles an ICE car has in the maybe $5kish used range. The sort of person buying a $5k car can't afford a $10k battery. They might not have access to $10k o…

EV batteries don't tend to suddenly die, do they? You can negotiate a lower price for a weaker battery, and you don't have to replace it the moment it hits 80% capacity. And we're currently talking about cars that are worth significantly more than $5k. An extra 30% to fix it up is very different from an extra 200%.

A colleague of mine bought a Tesla. He was looking to trade it up for a newer model after a couple of years and it depreciated probably $30K (nearly half) if I recall correctly. He absolutely loves the car, but nobody wants to take on that type of depreciation hit.

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#45

Post by pornel »

asdff wrote: post #23
pedalpete wrote: post #8

https://archive.is/96yi1 I feel what this article fails to mention is how the depreciation of EVs compares to depreciation of gas cars. Apparently, based on google searches, cars depreciate 15% when driven off the lot, and then a further 15% per year after that. So it looks like EVs are depreciating quicker. This would definitely be a good deal, as they also have lower operating costs.

I'm really curious to see how the used market shakes out when it becomes time to play hot potato with the inevitable battery array replacement. Gas cars need work to but that work is less costly and they can take a whole lot of neglect.

When it's time to replace, you'll get a larger battery for less money. You may be able to sell or reuse the old battery for stationary power storage.

Nissan Leaf (one of the oldest BEVs) launched with 24kWh batteries. Now it has 40kWh for the same price (even less if counting inflation), and 64kWh upgrade options.

Batteries tend to degrade 1%-2% per year, and there's no breaking point when you have to replace. In the Model S's (another old EV model with over a decade of data available) the cooling system tends to die sooner than the battery it cools.

BEV battery recycling is still in infancy, because EV batteries are lasting longer than expected.

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#46

Post by Dylan16807 »

Clubber wrote: post #44
Dylan16807 wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

EV batteries don't tend to suddenly die, do they? You can negotiate a lower price for a weaker battery, and you don't have to replace it the moment it hits 80% capacity. And we're currently talking about cars that are worth significantly more than $5k. An extra 30% to fix it up is very different from an extra 200%.

A colleague of mine bought a Tesla. He was looking to trade it up for a newer model after a couple of years and it depreciated probably $30K (nearly half) if I recall correctly. He absolutely loves the car, but nobody wants to take on that type of depreciation hit.

That's something worth nothing, but most of that is unrelated to the battery, and I don't see how it has anything to do with the rest of this comment thread.

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#47

Post by bb88 »

adam_arthur wrote: post #42
janalsncm wrote: post #37

> China, where new EVs can go for about $10,000 or less This is the part that hit me. In America we have no idea how much we are overpaying for things. There are plenty of reasons, sure, but at the end of the day things are wildly expensive with little to no acknowledgment from the government.

The government is more interested in protecting autoworker jobs in the US than lowering the cost to a broader set of consumers, unfortunately. If we allowed Chinese autos into the country free of tariffs, prices would almost certainly decline materially in real terms over the next few years.

Many Chinese goods are great. But if it's an end run around regulation, it is not in the US's best interest. Ralph Nader already fought this fight and won back in the 1960's with the Chevrolet Corvair. The Ford Pinto had the gas tank between the rear axle and the rear bumper, creating a death trap on rear collisions.

These are a few issues of goods from China being an issue in the past:

A) Toys with lead paint being recalled.

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S02697...

B) Dog Food linked to China killing pets.

https://truthaboutpetfood.com/how-many-pets-have-ingredients....

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#48

Post by dzhiurgis »

romwell wrote: post #5

TL;DR: used EVs are "cheap" these days. As in, they're finally getting into a sub-$30K range. Meanwhile, I'm going to drive my 2010 Honda Fit (that I bought for $5K in 2017) practically forever. I'm making 6 figures as a software engineer, as does my wife. We have no kids. I have no idea who are these people buying new cars, or who are all these people for whom $30K is "cheap". I can pay that out of pocket, but unles…

Except new EV TCO is cheaper than your shitbox widowmaker

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#49

Post by Clubber »

Dylan16807 wrote: post #46
Clubber wrote: post #44

Earlier quoted context omitted.

A colleague of mine bought a Tesla. He was looking to trade it up for a newer model after a couple of years and it depreciated probably $30K (nearly half) if I recall correctly. He absolutely loves the car, but nobody wants to take on that type of depreciation hit.

That's something worth nothing, but most of that is unrelated to the battery, and I don't see how it has anything to do with the rest of this comment thread.

I suspect a lot of that depreciation has to do with the battery life and replacement cost. For the current used market it's pretty drastic. I'm not sure if it's just a flooded market, a fad ending, people just don't like EV's after owning them, Tesla cutting prices, or what. Perhaps some of all of that.

https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/poor-resale-values-of-evs-ar...

Edit:

A recent study from iSeeCars.com showed the average price of a 1- to 5-year-old used EV in the U.S. fell 31.8% over the past 12 months, equating to a value loss of $14,418. In comparison, the average price for a comparably aged internal combustion engine vehicle fell just 3.6%.

https://spectrumnews1.com/ca/la-west/transportation/2023/11/...

The Tesla Model S topped the list of EVs that depreciated most over five years; it lost 55.5% of its value, according to the analysis. Rounding out the top five were the Chevrolet Bolt EV (-51.1%), the Nissan Leaf (-50.8%), Tesla Model X (-49.9%) and Tesla Model 3 (-42.9%).

Overall, the average vehicle lost 38.8% of its value after five years, according to the analysis. Trucks retained the most value (depreciating 34.8% over five years), followed by hybrids and SUVs, which depreciated 37.4% and 41.2% respectively.

Environmental guilt only goes so far in terms of sales. For large adoption, the depreciation problem needs to be solved. Wealthy people (1st buyer) can afford to throw money at EVs over and over again and usually keep their vehicle only 2-3 years. Middle class (2nd buyer) need a dependable car that costs less per month (cost minus sell value) and lower class people (3rd buyer) need a vehicle that will last forever. The current state of EV's only satisfies the first and maybe some of the second buyer market while an ICE satisfies all three.

EV's sure are cool though.

Re: America Has an Answer to the Biggest Problem with EVs

#50

Post by Dylan16807 »

Clubber wrote: post #49
Dylan16807 wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

That's something worth nothing, but most of that is unrelated to the battery, and I don't see how it has anything to do with the rest of this comment thread.

I suspect a lot of that depreciation has to do with the battery life and replacement cost. For the current used market it's pretty drastic. I'm not sure if it's just a flooded market, a fad ending, people just don't like EV's after owning them, Tesla cutting prices, or what. Perhaps some of all of that. https://www.cnbc.com/2024/04/05/poor-resale-values-of-evs-ar... Edit: A recent study from iSeeCars.com showed the a…

Well apparently the average car loses 42% of its value after three years, so if that Tesla lost an extra 10% that wouldn't be a huge difference.

5-year depreciation can be anywhere from 20 to 60 percent depending on model, and that's just looking at gas cars.

Edit: Oh you added a lot more. The wall of all EV prices falling will happen less and less as the tech matures. And even with that factor, they're still not at the bottom of car depreciation lists after 5 years.

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