Hacker News Board Hacker News, browsed like a classic message board
Live data from Hacker News

Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

princeton.edu

Post reply on HN
Print view View original

41–50 of 188 posts

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#41

Post by baddox »

nostromo wrote: post #9

I've enjoyed two great books that discuss this: "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" ( http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/books/review/Johnson-G-t.h... ) and "Fooled by Randomness" ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness ) I think people dislike talking about luck's role in our successes (but not failures) because it hints at a deterministic world view where our free will is less important…

The notion of luck doesn't imply that we don't have free will, but rather that we don't have complete control over our lives and environment, which I assume is something everyone believes regardless of their view on free will.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#42

Post by sigstop »

nirvana wrote: post #31
CUR10US wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did Lewis work at Goldman? Have you read Liar's Poker? How are you qualified to comment on his career?

Did you read the article? He talks about how he got his goldman job as a result of a series of events that started with him happening to be sat next to the wife of a goldman employee. Yes, I did read Liars Poker. I think its kinda funny that you question whether I am qualified to comment on his career, but a little bit of research shows he worked at goldman for awhile, wrote the book and has been a writer ever since.…

You seem to be consistently confusing Goldman Sachs and Salomon Brothers.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#43

Post by Retric »

sliverstorm wrote: post #13
nostromo wrote: post #9

I've enjoyed two great books that discuss this: "The Drunkard's Walk: How Randomness Rules Our Lives" ( http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/08/books/review/Johnson-G-t.h... ) and "Fooled by Randomness" ( http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fooled_by_Randomness ) I think people dislike talking about luck's role in our successes (but not failures) because it hints at a deterministic world view where our free will is less important…

Alternate explanation: People know they can't do anything about true luck, so they want to focus on things they might be able to do something about.

Except people can Hedge. Some times it's better to double down when things are going your way, but plenty of people who thought they where already successful wish they had taken some money off the table.

Ignoring the role luck's roles leads to lot's of stupid decisions like this. 99.9% of the time going 90 on an interstate is fine, that does not mean it's a wise decision.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#44

Post by dman »

nirvana wrote: post #31
CUR10US wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did Lewis work at Goldman? Have you read Liar's Poker? How are you qualified to comment on his career?

Did you read the article? He talks about how he got his goldman job as a result of a series of events that started with him happening to be sat next to the wife of a goldman employee. Yes, I did read Liars Poker. I think its kinda funny that you question whether I am qualified to comment on his career, but a little bit of research shows he worked at goldman for awhile, wrote the book and has been a writer ever since.…

You mean Salomon Brothers?

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#45

Post by stickfigure »

A quick parable: You sense a random opportunity, work your ass off, and turn it into a great success.

False narrative #1: This success is solely due to your hard work!

False narrative #2: This success is solely due to luck!

I haven't read ML's books (yet) but I think this speech leans too heavily on narrative #2.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#46

Post by hjkl »

paulhauggis wrote: post #39
hjkl wrote: post #14

I'm surprised by how defensive people can get about their own success. It seems to me that you can never know if your success was due to your own hard work or some lucky breaks (or, more probably, a combination of both to which you'll never know the balance). It reminds me of the story about thousands of people flipping coins. Out of those thousands of people, some of them are going to flip a long string of heads. Do…

Using this logic, pretty much everything is due to luck. finish your PHD? You were lucky that you were accepted and that you had a good enough education to get into the program. "It seems to me that you can never know if your success was due to your own hard work or some lucky breaks" You may have a point. But, I'm really tried of people attributing all success to luck (and using this as an excuse as to why they aren…

The argument isn't that success is due entirely to luck. It's that you'll never know how much of that success is due to luck. It may be a lot or it may be a little.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#47

Post by LargeWu »

nostromo wrote: post #25
sliverstorm wrote: post #13

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Alternate explanation: People know they can't do anything about true luck, so they want to focus on things they might be able to do something about.

Maybe, but I'm talking about retrospection here, not prospection. People, even when talking about past successes, are very unlikely to admit their good fortune. In other words you're more likely to hear, "I worked very hard" than "I worked very hard and was very lucky." There are notable exceptions. Warren Buffet has openly talked about the role of luck in his success.

"The harder I work, the luckier I get" - Samuel Goldwyn

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#48

Post by tedunangst »

nirvana wrote: post #31
CUR10US wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did Lewis work at Goldman? Have you read Liar's Poker? How are you qualified to comment on his career?

Did you read the article? He talks about how he got his goldman job as a result of a series of events that started with him happening to be sat next to the wife of a goldman employee. Yes, I did read Liars Poker. I think its kinda funny that you question whether I am qualified to comment on his career, but a little bit of research shows he worked at goldman for awhile, wrote the book and has been a writer ever since.…

Say what? The word goldman doesn't appear anywhere in the speech.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#49

Post by alxp »

paulorlando wrote: post #10

Would realizing they are lucky benefit the lucky? In the cookie experiment Lewis wrote about, the randomly appointed leader would then not take the cookie so effortlessly.

He's telling the students that they, being Ivy League graduates, will have many opportunities to exploit their positions, and is telling them to be aware of this and exercise some humility by remembering that luck has largely brought them where they are.

Re: Michael Lewis: Don't Eat Fortune's Cookie

#50

Post by CUR10US »

nirvana wrote: post #31
CUR10US wrote: post #23

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Did Lewis work at Goldman? Have you read Liar's Poker? How are you qualified to comment on his career?

Did you read the article? He talks about how he got his goldman job as a result of a series of events that started with him happening to be sat next to the wife of a goldman employee. Yes, I did read Liars Poker. I think its kinda funny that you question whether I am qualified to comment on his career, but a little bit of research shows he worked at goldman for awhile, wrote the book and has been a writer ever since.…

Can you quote the portion of the article where it says he sat next to the wife of a Goldman employee?
Post reply on HN