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How will the US debt situation play out?

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Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#41

Post by palmfacehn »

skhunted wrote: post #40
palmfacehn wrote: post #27

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I think I follow what your intended point was, but from where I stand you appear to be tilting at an imagined opponent. Maybe you can clarify by elaborating on what you imagined the 5 year prediction to be? The "Dollar Milkshake" theory is simply something I found to be a plausible response to the inflation doom predictions of the 2008 cycle. I did look for a concise text summary before posting the video. They didn't…

In 5 years you’ll likely forget about this theory and this person because nothing will come of whatever predictions this person is making. For 50 years these sorts of people have been making the same sort of predictions and they have all been wrong. Empires all come to an end so eventually one of these charlatans will be right but not because of possessing insight. It’ll be a coincidence.

> Empires all come to an end so eventually...

This is pretty much what he says in response to the Peter Schiff types of predictions. The critiques in this thread would be more aptly applied to those debating against "The Dollar Milkshake Theory".

It isn't a cult of personality or specific investment advice. Mining stocks aren't being promoted. Rather it is an observation and theory about how the USD strengthens at points in the business cycle where many expect it to weaken.

I'm not sure why HN needs to be so obtuse. If we cannot have a discussion about the actual contents of an observation rather than the perceived theme, if every post needs to be prefaced by several layers of disclaimers ("I don't own a crystal ball...") about what it isn't saying, then I'm not sure it is possible to have a discussion here.

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#42

Post by skhunted »

palmfacehn wrote: post #41
skhunted wrote: post #40

Earlier quoted context omitted.

In 5 years you’ll likely forget about this theory and this person because nothing will come of whatever predictions this person is making. For 50 years these sorts of people have been making the same sort of predictions and they have all been wrong. Empires all come to an end so eventually one of these charlatans will be right but not because of possessing insight. It’ll be a coincidence.

> Empires all come to an end so eventually... This is pretty much what he says in response to the Peter Schiff types of predictions. The critiques in this thread would be more aptly applied to those debating against "The Dollar Milkshake Theory". It isn't a cult of personality or specific investment advice. Mining stocks aren't being promoted. Rather it is an observation and theory about how the USD strengthens at po…

Brent Johnson is CEO of a wealth management firm. He dupes people into investing with his firm by exploiting peoples’ propensity to think “this time is different”. In the same way people are disinclined have a discussion on the merits of flat earth beliefs people are disinclined to discuss the merits of ideas from the Brent Johnsons of the world.

Five years from you’ll have forgotten all about the dollar milkshake theory because it is most likely nothing more than plausible sounding gibberish. I could be wrong. The country may collapse and the doomsayers are right this time.

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#43

Post by palmfacehn »

skhunted wrote: post #42
palmfacehn wrote: post #41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

> Empires all come to an end so eventually... This is pretty much what he says in response to the Peter Schiff types of predictions. The critiques in this thread would be more aptly applied to those debating against "The Dollar Milkshake Theory". It isn't a cult of personality or specific investment advice. Mining stocks aren't being promoted. Rather it is an observation and theory about how the USD strengthens at po…

Brent Johnson is CEO of a wealth management firm. He dupes people into investing with his firm by exploiting peoples’ propensity to think “this time is different”. In the same way people are disinclined have a discussion on the merits of flat earth beliefs people are disinclined to discuss the merits of ideas from the Brent Johnsons of the world. Five years from you’ll have forgotten all about the dollar milkshake th…

>flat earth ... gibberish

I'll try one more time. If this is how you engage with an attempt to reply to your questions, I'm not sure why you asked them? From my perspective I'm citing a supporting argument against near-term doom.

In your post above you posed reasonable questions. Hope you still have some curiosity in regards to those questions.

https://www.google.com/search?q=brent+johnson+dollar+bull

>Brent Johnson to the show. They discuss the reasons Brent thinks the U.S. Dollar bull market isn't over

>The US Dollar Milkshake Theory: A Sweet Deal for USD Bulls?

>Brent Johnson explains why he is a dollar bull and believes that structural issues in the global economy will ultimately force capital into the dollar.

>So the Dollar Milkshake theory supports the USD bull market argument ... Dollar Milkshake Theory Predicts a Bull Market in USD - Brent Johnson.

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#44

Post by hayst4ck »

jordann wrote: post #7

Slightly above ‘average’ inflation-levels, compounded over time, creating an intrinsic tax on wealth and inflating away the debt-to-gdp ratio so it remains roughly the same or near-same levels. Combine that with an increase in retirement age, a reduction in retirement benefits, and an increase on social-security tax incrementally over the next decade. Gen Z will perhaps be the first with a retirement age of 69 (nice)…

> creating an intrinsic tax on wealth

It's worth pointing out that it is not a tax on wealth, but a tax on both savings (held in cash) and lending (through reducing what paid back debt can buy).

Most forms of what people consider wealth track inflation, which is important because inflation is almost always a direct wealth transfer to a country's already wealthy, which makes the rich richer and the poor poorer.

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#45

Post by robocat »

hayst4ck wrote: post #32

Ray Dalio exactly answers your first question in this video(45m): https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xguam0TKMw8 The short answer is war, likely with China. The long answer is civil unrest. Billionaires who feel threatened by people who want to re-distribute wealth (tax the wealthy), use their wealth to put "strongmen" into power to defend their interest. Strongmen destroy innovation which weakens the military, which in…

> You could also move to New Zealand

Might work for a short while, but in NZ we have our own deficit problem partly due to an aging population and when a lefty government is in they will want to take your wealth away.

And be careful what you wish for: a lot of people wanting the wealthy to be taxed seem to forget how wealthy they are compared to the majority of the world.

Governments tell you to save for your retirement but then want to take your savings (whether you are ultra-wealthy or just a careful saver)

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#46

Post by skhunted »

palmfacehn wrote: post #43
skhunted wrote: post #42

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Brent Johnson is CEO of a wealth management firm. He dupes people into investing with his firm by exploiting peoples’ propensity to think “this time is different”. In the same way people are disinclined have a discussion on the merits of flat earth beliefs people are disinclined to discuss the merits of ideas from the Brent Johnsons of the world. Five years from you’ll have forgotten all about the dollar milkshake th…

>flat earth ... gibberish I'll try one more time. If this is how you engage with an attempt to reply to your questions, I'm not sure why you asked them? From my perspective I'm citing a supporting argument against near-term doom. In your post above you posed reasonable questions. Hope you still have some curiosity in regards to those questions. https://www.google.com/search?q=brent+johnson+dollar+bull >Brent Johnson…

Let him manage your wealth.

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#47

Post by palmfacehn »

skhunted wrote: post #46
palmfacehn wrote: post #43

Earlier quoted context omitted.

>flat earth ... gibberish I'll try one more time. If this is how you engage with an attempt to reply to your questions, I'm not sure why you asked them? From my perspective I'm citing a supporting argument against near-term doom. In your post above you posed reasonable questions. Hope you still have some curiosity in regards to those questions. https://www.google.com/search?q=brent+johnson+dollar+bull >Brent Johnson…

Let him manage your wealth.

What does this have to do with anything? Can you not discuss something without attacking the identity of the speaker? If you are bullish on the dollar there are plenty of simple things you could do, like treasury bills.

If you believe there's an underlying deterministic system to markets, it stands to reason that evaluating these theories may benefit your understanding. Typically experts in the field will debate amongst themselves and present those theories in a public forum.

I had some time yesterday, so I figured I would take my boat out for a little fishing. When I arrived at the marina, I saw the usual characters milling about. My mother warned me about the dangerous siren songs of sea captains. She said, "Be careful, those sea captains only want one thing! To sell you marine services and seafood! Don't listen to anything they have to say, especially nautical topics"

Forewarned is forearmed, so I firmly inserted earplugs to protect me from any "advice" these shady nautical characters might offer. Many approached me, some even waved, but I was blissfully insulated. My earplugs afforded me my own private safety bubble. I was protected from anything these experienced sea captains said about the ocean. There was one who was particularly insistent, I rudely rebuffed his advances with a middle finger. As he walked away, I yelled, "Get out of here you good for nothing sea captain. Nobody wants to buy your smelly seafood or malicious marine services. My mother told me all about you!"

Here's what the people around the marina were actually saying: "It looks like a perfect day for it!", "Have a good one!", "Catch one for me, buddy!"

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#48

Post by palmfacehn »

gymbeaux wrote: post #39
palmfacehn wrote: post #28

Earlier quoted context omitted.

You'd have to actually watch it to find that it isn't saying the things you've projected into it.

I'm not insinuating that the video at the link is discussing the housing market, that's just a very typical example of the "fearmongering" clickbait videos I see on YouTube.

That's basically the opposite of what I was attempting to discuss in this thread.

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#49

Post by skhunted »

palmfacehn wrote: post #47
skhunted wrote: post #46

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Let him manage your wealth.

What does this have to do with anything? Can you not discuss something without attacking the identity of the speaker? If you are bullish on the dollar there are plenty of simple things you could do, like treasury bills. If you believe there's an underlying deterministic system to markets, it stands to reason that evaluating these theories may benefit your understanding. Typically experts in the field will debate amon…

I reiterate what ai previously said: In the same way people are disinclined have a discussion on the merits of flat earth beliefs people are disinclined to discuss the merits of ideas from the Brent Johnsons of the world.

Re: How will the US debt situation play out?

#50

Post by palmfacehn »

skhunted wrote: post #49
palmfacehn wrote: post #47

Earlier quoted context omitted.

What does this have to do with anything? Can you not discuss something without attacking the identity of the speaker? If you are bullish on the dollar there are plenty of simple things you could do, like treasury bills. If you believe there's an underlying deterministic system to markets, it stands to reason that evaluating these theories may benefit your understanding. Typically experts in the field will debate amon…

I reiterate what ai previously said: In the same way people are disinclined have a discussion on the merits of flat earth beliefs people are disinclined to discuss the merits of ideas from the Brent Johnsons of the world.

Today "flat earth" is yet another another pejorative people throw around when they've nothing substantive to say. Somewhat similar to invoking Godwin's law. Ironically enough, flat earth emerged out of a debate society. It was a debate society to test and hone rhetorical skills by engaging with a deliberately absurd hypothetical.

There's nothing fringe about observing that there hasn't been hyperinflation or analyzing the reasons for a lack of hyperinflation. Many erroneously predicted dramatic price inflation due to the similarly dramatic inflation of the money supply. The "Dollar Milkshake Theory" offers plausible answers to the questions you posed above. We shouldn't have to evaluate it as some kind of gospel truth. Instead, individuals who have an interest in the topic can examine it, take what they may, perhaps build their own ideas upon it or reject it based upon their own rational thoughts.

If you have no interest in engaging in a good faith discussion or if you have no interest in examining the answers to those questions, perhaps you shouldn't pose them in an open discussion. The premise is disingenuous and obnoxious. If there's no room for rational discussion or examination, what is left is by default irrational. If there's no curiosity or interest, there's no reason to pose the questions.

There's nothing sales-y about his talks. From what I've heard he's generally expressed a lack of interest in promoting his services in those forums. Instead he engages with others who disagree. He debates with academic economists. He debates with doomsayers who are explicitly selling fear. Would you have us believe that academics are also pitching investments? That professors who are publishing free to access papers are going to hoodwink you out of your savings? Your language here would suggest as much.

Even if he were selling something, are you so fragile that you cannot endure a salesman's pitch to learn the details of the product? Who else would be considered a domain expert, if not academic economists and the traders who put macroeconomic theories into practice?

For those who are genuinely curious as to the mechanisms driving markets, it wouldn't be unreasonable to examine to the thoughts of domain experts. I suppose then, if we cannot examine the ideas of the domain experts, we should build our own layman theories and ideas out of whole cloth? If that's your position, invoking the fringe accusation becomes doubly ironic.

Throwing around pejoratives doesn't move the discussion forward. It is both obnoxious and toxic.

The characterization driving your prejudicial dismissal is inaccurate. Worse yet, "The Dollar Milkshake Theory" supports your general sentiment against doom. Perhaps you have your own internal rationalizations for your inaccurate prejudices, but outwardly there's nothing to distinguish your posts from outright trolling. If you possessed even modicum of curiosity or good faith...

All this from a site that puts on airs about the quality of discussion.

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