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Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

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Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#41

Post by liamconnell »

xadhominemx wrote: post #29
francisofascii wrote: post #8

> Are We Living in the Roaring 20s? Yes, the post Flu/Covid effect, insane asset prices, vacations, etc. all line up. Shiller PE is at 34, which is higher than in 1929. I am somewhat optimistic we can experience a softer landing than The Great Depression. The Fed hinting a lower rates might be an indication of them understanding the risks of a crash. The problem is due to the systemic nature of the system, a boom can…

Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis. The stock market is rallying but it's been mostly becasue earnings are good. Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible.

Well I’m not saying I agree with it, but a comparison to the Great Depression is not out of context for an article comparing today’s economic situation to that immediately preceding the Great Depression!

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#42

Post by NDizzle »

erellsworth wrote: post #21
mc32 wrote: post #11

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The people in charge want it both ways so they keep on printing money and funding several optional wars simultaneously. They've kicked consequences down the road and seemingly, the new budget approved, kicks it further down the road. That and you add 10MM new legal+illegal immigrants in the span of three years to the housing demand pool and it pushes citizens further away from housing attainability. It's nuts. Then y…

Birth rates in the US have been below replacement levels for some time now. This means we will need more immigrants to sustain the never ending growth capitalism demands.

[flagged]

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#43

Post by forgotmyinfo »

smallmancontrov wrote: post #31
hsyehbeidhh wrote: post #17

Earlier quoted context omitted.

[flagged]

It's zoning and transportation policy that pump housing prices to the moon, not onlyfans. What prevents ownership? It's tax policy that rests heavily on capital-labor interactions and barely at all on capital-capital interactions. Monetary policy that deflates wages but not asset values. Trade policy that pumps assets and dumps exports. Trans people did not do this. The self-serving policies of asset owners did this.

Agreed. It's hard to confront the fact that your sweet, old neighbor lady across the street shows up to screech at city council meetings every week because someone wants to build an apartment building. Multiply this times 40 million, and you get our current predicament.

I have seen people go to truly insane lengths to prevent buildings from going up in prosperous downtown cores in middle America. But what do you expect? Everyone wants housing to be an investment, and for it to appreciate, the supply has to go down. Eventually, something has to give, and it's going to be ugly.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#44

Post by sofixa »

xadhominemx wrote: post #29
francisofascii wrote: post #8

> Are We Living in the Roaring 20s? Yes, the post Flu/Covid effect, insane asset prices, vacations, etc. all line up. Shiller PE is at 34, which is higher than in 1929. I am somewhat optimistic we can experience a softer landing than The Great Depression. The Fed hinting a lower rates might be an indication of them understanding the risks of a crash. The problem is due to the systemic nature of the system, a boom can…

Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis. The stock market is rallying but it's been mostly becasue earnings are good. Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible.

> Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis

They are insane compared to the relative growth, or lack thereof, of median wages, yes. If an assets continues appreciating even past the point it's accessible to the vast majority of the population, "supply and demand econ 101" is no longer working. When that asset is one of the most critical components of life (housing) and on which many lives are built around (be it where one lives and works, or how many kids one can afford to house, or the community one can have), this is unquestionably not good and can have wild ramifications. Disenfranchised young people are a dangerous political force, while population declines could break economic models as we understand them today (it's bordering on the impossible to have infinite growth when the population is declining).

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#46

Post by SideburnsOfDoom »

karaterobot wrote: post #20

The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well, people are traveling, and there is some technological innovation happening. As though that were unique. He then dismisses certain other, less convenient evidence, like consumer sentiment, and simply doesn't bring up any other changes in the macroeconomic climate over the last 100 years. I would like to know what about the balance of evidence is unique enough to…

> The evidence offered is that the economy is doing well

I don't know if that's even well-defined based on the evidence presented - "a massive stock market boom".

The (USA) economy is doing OK, especially when compared to other countries that have made other policy choices and are faring even worse. But "stock market go up" is not the same thing at all as "most people doing better".

"High house prices" is also not a unambiguously wonderful thing. e.g. if you need to buy a house.

Likewise Low Unemployment is not great if all the jobs are no-benefits gig work and you need three of them to pay off your massive student or medical debt.

Lack of good consumer sentiment indicates this gap.

And this oversimplifying to the point of meaninglessness is why I'm sceptical of the article's point.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#47

Post by sophacles »

xadhominemx wrote: post #29
francisofascii wrote: post #8

> Are We Living in the Roaring 20s? Yes, the post Flu/Covid effect, insane asset prices, vacations, etc. all line up. Shiller PE is at 34, which is higher than in 1929. I am somewhat optimistic we can experience a softer landing than The Great Depression. The Fed hinting a lower rates might be an indication of them understanding the risks of a crash. The problem is due to the systemic nature of the system, a boom can…

Are asset prices insane? Home prices are high but in-line with the long-term trend on a real basis. The stock market is rallying but it's been mostly becasue earnings are good. Why would you mention the great depression? To be honest it makes you seem unhinged and not credible.

Why would someone mention the great depression in a comment about an article comparing the economy 2024 to the economy right before great depression?

Yeah good point, I don't know why anyone would read and then discuss an article on a site dedicated to discussing linked articles. It must be gp who has no credibility - how dare they comment on-topic!

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#48

Post by giantg2 »

asynchronous wrote: post #7
ddorian43 wrote: post #6

Whatever it is, it doesn't look good for young people. Good luck to them buying a house with these prices & interest rates, or trying to save for a downpayment while renting. The previous generation is hellbent on maximum extraction & I got mine mentality & rent-seeking.

The inevitable outcome seems to be the younger generation giving up altogether and then social security is going to dry up real fast.

Social security is drying up regardless of if the next generation gives up. Structural or demographic changes would be necessary to keep it afloat.

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#49

Post by andsoitis »

notact wrote: post #30
erellsworth wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Birth rates in the US have been below replacement levels for some time now. This means we will need more immigrants to sustain the never ending growth capitalism demands.

The stock market may demand never ending growth, to keep generating positive returns. But how does capitalism itself (private ownership of production) demand never ending growth, any more than a planned economy would?

> The stock market may demand never ending growth, to keep generating positive returns. But how does capitalism itself (private ownership of production) demand never ending growth, any more than a planned economy would?

You're right that capitalism is when most of the means of production is privately owned (private ownership), but production and income distribution is largely through the operation of markets. More: https://www.britannica.com/money/capitalism#

Re: Are We Living in the Roaring 20s?

#50

Post by TimPC »

gspencley wrote: post #38
ddorian43 wrote: post #12

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Especially with real estate. Either rent indefinetily by paying their pension , buy the house for 2x-3x+ the monthly rent so you pay their pension in lump sum, or go 1+ hour away from city(also high cost in terms of time etc). The politicians are also older people who can't empathize. The young also don't vote. And if you do buy high now, who are you gonna sell even higher when you retire, since there are so few new…

> The young also don't vote. This might change, fast. I have two daughters who are in their early 20s. My oldest daughter, 24, has dreamed of buying a home and starting a family with her high school sweetheart of 10 years and her dream has been completely shattered. The saddest part is, this isn't even just about buying a home. She's not going to start a family until they are no longer living with us and have a house…

Do the young even have someone to vote for in Canada though? Only the PPC wants to stop immigration and build housing but they are a fringe party unlikely to get a single seat rather than run the country. The BQ is a decent option in Quebec, but in the rest of Canada pretty much any party that has seats currently is far too pro-immigration and far too pro-Boomer to get anything done on house prices. PP is very good at talking about how the other parties are failing while offering no real solutions himself for example.
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