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Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

noahpinion.blog

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Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#41

Post by fragmede »

_wqdq wrote: post #26
cousin_it wrote: post #14

Key point: > If you can create more compute by simply putting more energy into the process, it could make economic sense to starve human beings in order to generate more and more AI... most governments seem likely to limit AI’s ability to hog energy This is the most likely scenario, and indeed in that scenario saving humans from starvation requires government action. Some governments will do it, some won't. Those tha…

Could you provide some examples of what you think these hypothetical AI’s are going to give/grant/allow these hypothetical governments that warrants the usage of enough energy they’ll actually starve people to achieve? What “competition” are these governments going to be in to necessitate this? Comments like this are becoming far more common it seems amongst the tech community, to me anyway, that I really want an ans…

Market forces; If the AI company can pay $20 for a thing, but human people can only pay $5 for a thing, who are you going to sell to? Now, energy isn't fungible, I can't feed a bushel of wheat to my computer, nor can I drink gasoline, so I don't buy it, but that's the theory.

Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#42

Post by fragmede »

elicksaur wrote: post #6

While there’s an absolute comparative advantage, this analysis ignores a subsidized comparative advantage from VC money. It talks about comparative advantage changing over time, but that’s not quite what I’m getting at. Most LLMs are currently run at a loss as far as I know. If a company can do that long enough to put an industry out of work, that’s a huge problem. Combine that with advertising that the AI is better…

> Most LLMs are currently run at a loss as far as I know.

that's the entire question. Inference is cheap as all hell. I think Open AI is covering the cost of compute for $20/month per user because I can run llama on my laptop without the fans spinning up. of course, only OpenAI knows how much it costs to run, but that's what your argument hinges on.

Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#43

Post by number6 »

petermcneeley wrote: post #34
thih9 wrote: post #21

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Is being seen as a fool that bad? Note that there is another saying, “He who asks a question is a fool for five minutes; he who does not ask a question remains a fool forever.”.

"Who is more foolish? The fool or the fool who follows him?

"I pitty the fool" - Mr. T

Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#44

Post by fragmede »

thih9 wrote: post #21
petermcneeley wrote: post #17

Noah's post always remind me of this quote: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt."

Is being seen as a fool that bad? Note that there is another saying, “He who asks a question is a fool for five minutes; he who does not ask a question remains a fool forever.”.

Cunningham's law. someone has to be the fool to get someone else to give the right answer. if that person has to be me, I'll make that sacrifice.

Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#46

Post by fragmede »

sfpotter wrote: post #25

There’s another reason AI won’t eliminate jobs. People like to hire people who are like them (also who like them, and who they like). The only people who AIs are like are AI engineers (more broadly, engineers, scientists, etc). For an AI engineer “hiring” an AI is natural. Nearly every other normal person on the planet would rather hire another person they can easily relate to, regardless of that person’s comparative…

sometimes you just don’t have any social energy battery life left, and just want a drink from a vending machine instead of making small talk with the cute barista that you have no chance with. The barista could be an ax murderer. They could be a really toxic person to even have to interact with. Not everyone wants to put up with that, even if they look like us, we sympathize and empathize that they’re grumpy because their aunt Sally died. Vending machines replace bartenders? I mean kind of; don’t see many soda jerks around anymore.

If that makes me not normal enough, shit. lean me up first against the wall when the revolution comes. (And it’s coming.)

Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#47

Post by amelius »

nabla9 wrote: post #39
amelius wrote: post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Yes, but this is an advantage that will become less and less true, very quickly. It's not like we will converge to some state where AI workers and human workers will coexist in some ratio.

From your response it looks like you don't know what comparative advantage is. Comparative advantage does not mean that humans are better than AI at something. "Comparative advantage" != "Absolute Advantage" Comparative advantages don't usually disappear just because one party gets better and better.

Hardware is getting cheaper and more plentiful.

If you need AI to do more work and you need more hardware, you just buy more hardware. And this becomes more true with time.

Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#48

Post by onel »

petermcneeley wrote: post #17

Noah's post always remind me of this quote: "Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak and to remove all doubt."

I think offering your opinion on a subject and being disproved is a very healthy way of learning about it. Having a conversation should be the norm

Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#49

Post by drewcoo »

ben_w wrote: post #23
cousin_it wrote: post #14

Key point: > If you can create more compute by simply putting more energy into the process, it could make economic sense to starve human beings in order to generate more and more AI... most governments seem likely to limit AI’s ability to hog energy This is the most likely scenario, and indeed in that scenario saving humans from starvation requires government action. Some governments will do it, some won't. Those tha…

Too many unknowns to be predictable. We've got loads of machine labour already, we don't yet plug AI into it everywhere because humans are much better at avoiding accidents (not immune, but much better). Get AI good enough, the mining equipment, the delivery trucks, the factories, can all be fully automated (bits of each already are). You're now limited by how fast (and how far) your robotic workforce can increase it…

> humans are much better at avoiding accidents (not immune, but much better)

Are they, really, or is it a question of liability? If we could "lease" AI drivers, allowing companies to defray liability while still not paying unreliable humans, they'd do it. But then the owners of the AI leasing companies wouldn't have anywhere to hide from lawsuits.

Being able to blame and fire an individual human for what is really a systemic problem is a huge win for companies.

Re: Plentiful, high-paying jobs in the age of AI

#50

Post by drewcoo »

sfpotter wrote: post #25

There’s another reason AI won’t eliminate jobs. People like to hire people who are like them (also who like them, and who they like). The only people who AIs are like are AI engineers (more broadly, engineers, scientists, etc). For an AI engineer “hiring” an AI is natural. Nearly every other normal person on the planet would rather hire another person they can easily relate to, regardless of that person’s comparative…

> People like to hire people who are like them

So we're looking for a unicorn startup that provides AI with personalities and the ability to mirror their bosses?

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