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Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

economist.com

41–50 of 71 posts

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#41

Earlier quoted context omitted.

M1 and the Fed's balance sheet are down since 2022, though. What "money printing" do you mean?

The $4T that businesses got handed in march 2020, aka 20% of all USA currency ever printed. Don't think they aren't still playing with it.

2020 is 4 years ago …

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#42
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which money printing are you referring to?

I think the US printed a couple of TRILLION dollars during COVID. The money hasn’t gone anywhere so if you’re American and don’t have the $80000 per person someone else has your cash. Edit: not sure why you’re downvoting! It was actually $3.3tn in 2020 alone which is wild.

$3.3tn is $10k per US resident, not $80k.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#43
post #24

Earlier quoted context omitted.

M1 and the Fed's balance sheet are down since 2022, though. What "money printing" do you mean?

Anticipation of forthcoming lowered rates.

Quite a few former crashes coincided with rate reductions.

Hard to tell which caused which.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#44
post #36

I'm heartened to see the comments here because they seem to support what I've slowly been realizing, which is that nobody knows what will happen next. There will always be a steady stream of people telling you both that the sky is falling and that we're on the upswing. As far as we can detect there's a near equal probability of either being true. Writers have their own biases and economic homeostasis is dependent on…

Markets try to be efficient, but can only represent’s today knowledge. If more than a few had a solid idea that it would go up or down, it would have already been there.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#45

Earlier quoted context omitted.

The $4T that businesses got handed in march 2020, aka 20% of all USA currency ever printed. Don't think they aren't still playing with it.

2020 is 4 years ago …

It's been living in the reverse repo market, it's slowly trickling out.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#46
post #14

if technology continues to improve productivity, then the market will continue to rise accordingly.

Improving productivity isn’t perfectly aligned with what is good for tech stocks. Does Netflix want you to be more productive? Meta? Google and Amazon maybe.

> Does Netflix want you to be more productive? Meta?

Yes. If you can support yourself while only working 10 hours a week then you have another 30 hours you could be spending on watching Netflix or shit posting on Facebook.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#47
post #8

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Which money printing are you referring to?

I think the US printed a couple of TRILLION dollars during COVID. The money hasn’t gone anywhere so if you’re American and don’t have the $80000 per person someone else has your cash. Edit: not sure why you’re downvoting! It was actually $3.3tn in 2020 alone which is wild.

I think that's more like $9k?

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#48
post #28
post #14

if technology continues to improve productivity, then the market will continue to rise accordingly.

Technology is improving productivity? We're still down half of what overall productivity was 20 years ago. https://www.thirdway.org/report/missing-the-juice-whats-happ...

That graph is productivity growth, and it's consistently positive.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#49
post #28
post #14

if technology continues to improve productivity, then the market will continue to rise accordingly.

Technology is improving productivity? We're still down half of what overall productivity was 20 years ago. https://www.thirdway.org/report/missing-the-juice-whats-happ...

Productivity can grow without workers reaping the benefits of that growth, unfortunately. And in that case, the stock market grows even more.

Re: Stock markets are booming but the good times are unlikely to last

#50

Earlier quoted context omitted.

Improving productivity isn’t perfectly aligned with what is good for tech stocks. Does Netflix want you to be more productive? Meta? Google and Amazon maybe.

> Does Netflix want you to be more productive? Meta? Yes. If you can support yourself while only working 10 hours a week then you have another 30 hours you could be spending on watching Netflix or shit posting on Facebook.

Good point. More precisely I should say does Netflix help you become more productive! They definitely want you to have more free time.
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