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Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

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Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#41

Post by verdverm »

legitster wrote: post #32

> "The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too. > A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there w…

If we weight crime counts by severity, than the total area under the curve is smaller, which seems like a good thing

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#42

Post by torstenvl »

sxp wrote: post #19

"The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2020..." "We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022,...." It's so annoying that even "good" news outlets like NPR are incompetent when it comes to showing statistical data. There is no good reason to mix city rates vs country rates or speak only in percentages instead of absolute numbers. Some…

We're only up 24% from 2019 instead of 27%

Somehow I don't feel that's cause for self-congratulation.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#43

Post by verdverm »

UtopiaPunk wrote: post #35
lp4vn wrote: post #7

Sometimes criminality drops but at a too high price. Some cities in Latin America are "safe" from a statistical point of view but nobody dares go out at night, or even during the day, in some neighbourhoods because it's too dangerous.

Can you elaborate? I don't think I understand what it would mean to be "safe" statistically, but it's too dangerous to go outside. - Are you implying that the statistic data on crime is incorrect and/or falsified? - Are you including dangers besides criminality (like motor vehicle collisions or stormy weather)? - Are you implying the police make the area unsafe (the police being, practically if not literally, the opp…

Unreported crimes

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#44

Post by colechristensen »

Ah yes, statistical nonsense.

>The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2020, according to FBI statistics. The overall violent crime rate, which includes murder, assault, robbery and rape, inched up around 5% in the same period.

> But in 2023, crime in America looked very different.

Ok, fun fact, the 2023 murder count was still higher than the 2019 one.

Covid effects and restrictions caused an incredible surge in crime rate that has still not been recovered from, years later. That's the story.

The story isn't "things are great people are just delusional about crime rates" as NPR/left-wing bias wants to believe. Nor is it "things are worse than ever".

But you know what, this lying and manipulation by news sources is exhausting and ridiculous.

Show me a graph? Ope, things got ridiculous during covid and improved a lot but not all the way since then.

Violent crime is dropping much slower than it grew. If someone would shut up about their political biases one way or the other and actually portray the facts in an honest manner, maybe people would trust the news more and not have such wrong gut feelings.

EDIT: Props to Axios for an actual graph and a much more reasonable article which actually discusses the issue at hand.

https://www.axios.com/2023/12/28/us-murder-violent-crime-rat...

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#45

Post by happytiger »

legitster wrote: post #32

> "The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too. > A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there w…

Yea, I’ve been robbed twice in the last year (one car break in and a bike theft) and we didn’t even bother to report it. I don’t want to lose my insurance! I need to save it for something bigger.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#46

Post by pastor_bob »

pavlov wrote: post #25
pastor_bob wrote: post #22

In NYC, you can get robbed and beat up, and the NYPD will refuse to file a report. There's your 'lack' of crime

When did this change happen? Is there some evidence that it would be the cause?

Under De Blasio, NYPD starting protesting oversight with work 'slowdowns'

" was a warning to the public as well, criminologists say, with Lynch alluding to the "Ferguson effect" argument, in which police pull back on acting, leading to a work slowdown because of criticism or administrative decisions perceived to endanger their well being on the streets."

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/police-union-suggests-w...

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#47

Post by lupire »

api wrote: post #3

The media and certain political interests in the US have an interest in making everyone afraid of crime. The former needs it for ratings (if it bleeds it leads) and the latter to scare you into voting for them. There are a handful of cities having property crime epidemics due to bad local policies, but crime overall continues to fall.

And other political interests have an interest in making everyone think crime is down, to stop voters from looking elsewhere.

They headline is based on a thin slice of data, that crime is down from 2022 to 2023, despite being up far far more on 2023. Then it mocks people for saying on a 2023 survey that they perceive crime as being up, based on their allegedly invalid ife experiences in 2020-2022. It's the same kind of deception as the "transitory inflation" nonsense that went around.

Then the article lists a litany of rebuttals to their own thesis -- major cities where violent crime and property crime are up recently.

The article has nothing of value to say except that crime is a complex issue with many factors.

It's low-key propaganda for the incumbent government.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#48

Post by UtopiaPunk »

legitster wrote: post #32

> "The national picture shows that murder is falling. We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022," Asher said, citing his own analysis of public data. He found instances of rape, robbery and aggravated assault were all down too. > A Gallup poll released in November found 77% of Americans believed there was more crime in the country than the year before. And 63% felt there w…

I don't worry about being robbed or my car broken into, but I do worry about being hit and killed by a reckless driver. I don't think that's what people have in mind when they think of "murder" or "assault," but that's genuinely my biggest fear to my well-being.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#49

Post by causi »

throwaway49849 wrote: post #28

So a Gallup poll that doesn't ask about violent crime is used as evidence that people are misguided about violent crime? How does that work?

I maintain my position that "the content is horseshit" should be added to the list of reasons to flag a submission. Lot of poorly-researched nonsense stays on the front page far too long.

Re: Violent crime is dropping fast in the U.S. – even if Americans don't believe it

#50

Post by pstrateman »

sxp wrote: post #19

"The number of murders across the country surged by nearly 30% between 2019 and 2020..." "We have data from over 200 cities showing a 12.2% decline ... in 2023 relative to 2022,...." It's so annoying that even "good" news outlets like NPR are incompetent when it comes to showing statistical data. There is no good reason to mix city rates vs country rates or speak only in percentages instead of absolute numbers. Some…

Property crimes are up in 2022, that's the first year since 2001 that property crimes got worse. 2001 was the first year since 1991.
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