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Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

benjaminschneider.substack.com

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Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#41
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I'm the person that wants more dense and walkable cities, so I'm really curious to learn more about why that will ALWAYS lead to more misery down the road. Honest question, do you have any stuff I can read or terms I can search on?

There is plenty of history showing the long term effects and outcome of dense housing run by the Government. Dense housing ran by private companies will always be a race to capture the most amount of profit. While Government ran dense housing will be affected by an ever decreasing budget and ever increasing cost. OP is right. We need to invest in “fly over” states. There is an abundance of land and opportunity to achieve the American dream. Humans living in a tiny cube and commuting in a tiny cylinder (bus, subway) to a tiny office cube ad nauseam is the worst.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#42
post #17

I'll save you a click: no. Here's the thing: housing in dense cities will NEVER be affordable. Never. What happened recently (and is happening in other cities like Seattle) is companies pivoting from building "luxury" crappy condos to sweet state-subsdizied housing. These kinds of projects are great for them, they don't need to care about the market demand.

Tokyo manages to remain affordable somehow. “Two full-time workers earning Tokyo’s minimum wage can comfortably afford the average rent for a two-bedroom apartment in six of the city’s 23 wards.” https://www.nytimes.com/2023/09/11/opinion/editorials/tokyo-...

Not to detract from your point, but 2-bedroom apartments in Tokyo are 60 sqm or something.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#43
Credit has to be given to the governor Gavin Newsom here. He's made some questionable policy choices, particularly with seemingly random vetoes (which the legislature could override but they haven't done in decades because that would take up time in the next legislative session).

Prop 13 was about the absolute worst thing to ever happen to California housing. Rising property prices make people feel like they're richer but really they're not. You typically still own one housing unit of wealth in almost all cases. It's just the nominal value is higher. For this benefit, eye-wateringly massive subsidies have been given to Disney, institutional property holders and the very wealthy for absolutely no gain.

But this goes to show how powerful NIMBYs are and the level of delusional self-interest people possess.

For those unfamiliar, Prop 13 capped the annual property tax increases to 1-2%. Property tax rates are reset when the property is sold. Property held in LLCs is never reset because the LLC not the property is sold. This is why Disney's property tax rate was basically set in the 1960s and never been adjusted for current values. The net effect is that incumbent property owners from the 70s and 80s pay a tiny fraction of the assessable property tax on their properties and this has been a massive drain on state budgets. This was sold as not kicking seniors out of their houses. Texas handles this a lot better: property taxes can be deferred until death or the sale of the property.

But it gets worse: this beneficial tax rate can be inherited. It's just locking in generational wealth. It's also not allowing people to move because they can't keep this beneficial tax rate.

Recently, there was a very minor partial rollback on this known as Prop 19. What is it? It limits this beneficial property tax rate inheritance to only one property. That's right. If you owned 10 properties then your family could inherit all your tax rates prior to this. So this only affects people who bought multiple properties in the 20th century and sat on them. That's probably less than 1% of CAlifornians.

Prop 13 passed with only 51% of the vote. 49% of voters rejected this very minor reform. That's how powerful the NIMBY brain rot is.

Now against this force, which tends to overtake all local cities, towns, councils and planning boards, there have been a whole bunch of reforms: stopping the abuse of CEQA to block any development, increasing density without years-long planning approvals in certain cases (eg on major roads), all CA municpalities having to plan for how they're going to build more housing (aka the housing element) with real consequences for not complying (eg the builder's remedy) and so on.

Passing any of these given the power of NIMBYism with voters is a major accomplishment and I think these are starting to have an effect.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#44

Or, seeing as how it's kind of important, we could subsidize building more housing.

Or seeing as how it's kinda important, we could stop regulatory capture for housing. (There is an article here on hackers news not too long ago that said that while most industries had had huge productivity gains in the last 30 years, construction had been flat or decreasing - mostly because of increased regulation)

Coming from a construction family, this is THE problem with building right now. Material costs going up by an order of magnitude during COVID times (and not really recovering) was rough, but it doesn't hold a candle to the dumpster fire that is regulation.

Permits for everything (some permits are good, some are SO bad), mandates for things that increase cost for marginal/no gains in the finished product, and a ton of red tape/money going to people not involved in the actual work or the quality of the end product. If I, as a builder, have to go through all that bullshit for each house I build, the sane response is that I'm only building expensive houses that take more time but end up being similar $/hr for me, because I end up saving money and time dealing with the regulators.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#45
post #36
post #23

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How does building dense housing lead to higher housing costs? That seems unintuitive to me.

This kind of anti-logic usually goes along with arguments like "well, they keep building lots of units and prices haven't gone down, so obviously it's useless to do anything but enact rent control for current residents and give the middle finger to anyone else who ever wants to live in that place", while ignoring that prices can't go down until we catch up on the literally decades of underbuilding in most US metro areas.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#46
post #41
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm the person that wants more dense and walkable cities, so I'm really curious to learn more about why that will ALWAYS lead to more misery down the road. Honest question, do you have any stuff I can read or terms I can search on?

There is plenty of history showing the long term effects and outcome of dense housing run by the Government. Dense housing ran by private companies will always be a race to capture the most amount of profit. While Government ran dense housing will be affected by an ever decreasing budget and ever increasing cost. OP is right. We need to invest in “fly over” states. There is an abundance of land and opportunity to ach…

Thanks, so it's specifically govt run affordable housing. I read OP as the more general "dense cities = BAD" but seems like it's more specifically "govt run plans for dense housing". I can understand that.

Also, yes also agree about more jobs and opportunities more distributed across the land. That sounds good.

I think about my position as favoring walkable dense metros in the more organic manner - people like people - we WANT to be close to one another. And the infrastructure to make that possible, comfortable, affordable, and sustainable.. is great!

The exchange of ideas and tolerance leading to innovation, is a function of dense metros. Is that not just fundamentally...true?

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#47
post #41
post #29

Earlier quoted context omitted.

I'm the person that wants more dense and walkable cities, so I'm really curious to learn more about why that will ALWAYS lead to more misery down the road. Honest question, do you have any stuff I can read or terms I can search on?

There is plenty of history showing the long term effects and outcome of dense housing run by the Government. Dense housing ran by private companies will always be a race to capture the most amount of profit. While Government ran dense housing will be affected by an ever decreasing budget and ever increasing cost. OP is right. We need to invest in “fly over” states. There is an abundance of land and opportunity to ach…

Neither the article nor the comment you are referring to were talking about government housing.

And you’re entitled to not want to live in a dense urban environment, but you might need to open your mind to the idea that not everyone feels the way you do.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#48
post #29
post #23

[flagged]

I'm the person that wants more dense and walkable cities, so I'm really curious to learn more about why that will ALWAYS lead to more misery down the road. Honest question, do you have any stuff I can read or terms I can search on?

Fertility rates in cities are far below replacement and falling every year. In every country, religious or secular, liberal or conservative, socialized healthcare/education or no. So they are proving simply not capable of sustaining human life.

This only works as long as rural people keep having lots of kids to feed into the city, but that isn’t really happening anymore either.

Re: Has LA cracked the code for building affordable housing?

#49

There's no big secret here. Dump restrictive zoning requirements, remove subjective approval processes, and make the permitting process a "shall approve" instead of "may approve", and you'll see a lot of new housing get built very quickly. All the slowdowns and immense extra expenses are self-inflicted by city residents who either don't care, don't want cheaper housing, or have been infected by the terminally brainle…

The restrictive zoning practices, long approval processes ridiculous permitting costs etc are in place because most people's entire net worth is held up in housing and they vote for laws that keep the price high for that reason. It's completely backwards to think that the reason why housing is expensive is because of those symptoms when the root cause is more than half the population wants mega high housing costs.

If height limits were raised with zoning for multi family housing, those investments would sky rocket faster than under NIMBY
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